On December 24, Muhammad Ashraf, 56, a Pakistan People’s Party’s veteran activist in Karachi, was enthusiastic about the homecoming of Asif Ali Zardari, former president and the party’s co-chairperson, who returned to the country after ending his 18-month-long self-imposed exile. "Although Bilawal Bhutto Zardari [party’s chairperson] has been making efforts to reconstruct the party, in Pakistan’s complicated politics, we need the skilled Zardari sahib, who has the ability to give a tough time to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz," he says.

In a gathering to observe the death anniversary of Benazir Bhutto, Zardari announced to return to the National Assembly along with his son Bilawal.  This, some of the PPP leaders think, is a positive act of the party’s top brass to strengthen the party.

But political analysts believe his return would have a detrimental impact on the process of the PPP’s revival, and affect Bilawal’s efforts that were received well by the public and media.

Zaigham Khan, a political analyst, says that the PPP under Bilawal was trying to restore the people’s confidence in the party by reaching out to them. "After a long time, the PPP was able to get a respite from the relentless criticism and received some positive media coverage. This may end with the return of Zardari. This may also dash any hopes of improved electoral fortunes in the next elections," adds Khan.

There are others who believe that Zardari’s homecoming is a new gimmick, that he was controlling the party even from Dubai. He will continue his policy of reconciliation with the ruling PML-N instead of initiating a movement against the government for the party’s four-point charter of demands. Both, father and son, prefer to sit in the parliament.

Zarrar Khuhro, an analyst who hosts a tv talk show, does not see any major impact of Zardari’s return on the PPP’s politics. "I don’t see the PPP initiating, leading or even joining any broad anti-government movement in the foreseeable future though they will undoubtedly step up their rhetoric -- if only to be able to improve their bargaining position vis a vis the federal government."

As for national politics, he thinks, "certainly Zardari’s deal-making skills will come into play. By virtue of being present in the National Assembly, he will have the opportunity to interact directly with politicians he otherwise had little direct access to."

Zardari had left the country in June last year following a hard-hitting speech wherein he had criticised the military establishment for overstepping its domain. But with the change in the military’s top leadership, Zardari has chosen to return to the country. On the day he arrived home, the Rangers raided offices of one of his close friends and arrested five people.

Perhaps, the raid was a warning shot to Zardari.

Zaigham Khan says that the raid was a clear message from the establishment - "that change of guards in Rawalpindi does not mean change in their policies. While conflict with the establishment benefited the PPP in the past, this may not be the case now as those who are being targeted are Zardari’s business associates and his business interests are seen quite suspect by the public".

Khuhro thinks the Rangers raid is possibly one reason behind Zardari’s keenness to enter parliament, "as it will allow him a degree of ‘insurance’ against any such action that could take place against him personally. It was a message that the open playing field of the past is now a thing of the past and that any attempt to revert to that will be resisted".

However, Jan Achakzai, a leader of the PML-N, does not see any correlation between the Rangers’ raid and Zardari’s arrival. "It was perhaps a coincidence. Karachi operation with a multi-pronged objective will continue regardless of who is in charge in the post-General Raheel Sharif situation".

Bilawal is not contesting from his deceased mother Benazir Bhutto’s traditional constituency NA-207, saving the seat for his aunt Faryal Talpur, main mover and shaker in the PPP. Instead, the party has chosen NA-204, another constituency from Larkana, for Bilawal. Similarly, Zardari has a plan to contest from NA-213, a constituency of Nawabshah, from where another sister, Azra Afzal Pachuhu, has been elected.

Ishak Soomro, a Karachi-based analyst who observes Sindh’s politics closely, says that the PPP seems invincible in the province’s politics in 2018 general polls as influential tribal chieftains and key leaders of rival parties have been joining the ruling party in rural parts in the recent years. He adds, the rival parties, especially the PML-N, the Pakistan Muslim League-Functional and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, are not in a position to give it a tough time.

"According to the party’s new strategy for 2018 polls, Zardari’s daughters Bakhtawar and Aseefa and sister Faryal will run the party’s affairs in Sindh while Zardari and Bilawal will focus on the Punjab," adds Soomro.

However, the situation for the PPP is arduous in Punjab, where the party has been wiped out because of several reasons -- provincial leadership crisis is one. After the 2013 polls, the PTI emerged as an effective political party at the national level and in Punjab it is not only challenging the PML-N, but is attracting PPP votes as well.

"The fact is that the PPP is unable to pose a challenge to the PML-N on their home turf -- Punjab," Khuhro says. "Similarly, the PML-N is weak in Sindh, where the PPP will continue to hold sway in the absence of any effective opposition and that state of affairs is unlikely to change."