Given the decision of the PTI to continue to pressurise the government on the Panama Leaks investigation, the next six weeks are likely to be crucial for Nawaz Sharif
Beware, Islamabad is bracing for a political storm in October-November. The political parties have piled up the pressure of Panama Leaks on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who, in turn, has the herculean task at hand of creating national unity on the issue of India-held Kashmir and nominating a new military chief of the country.
And, for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), it’s a ‘now-or-never’ situation: they must keep their workers mobilised to maximize political gains and force the prime minister to either resign or present himself and his children for fair accountability.
The PTI leadership has decided to not take part in the parliamentary proceedings until Sharif meets their demand: "only meaningful investigation into Leaks could create fruitful consensus on all issues".
"Imran Khan’s call for besieging Islamabad if PM Sharif doesn’t present himself for accountability is the last resort, which he may utilise only after exhausting all other options," observes Islamabad-based journalist Khawar Ghumman.
After pulling off an impressive show in Lahore on September 30, PTI Chief Imran Khan has sent a clear signal to the government that he means business. "Khan will not sit idle. He will use every possible trick up his sleeve against the government on the issue of Panama Papers," Ghumman adds.
With the pressure mounting on the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-- there are expectations from the Supreme Court (SC) and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and all eyes are on the PTI’s call for closing the capital after the holy month of Muharram.
As the SC has shown willingness to take up pleas of the PTI and its ally, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), regarding the Panama Leaks, experts expect a lengthy legal and political debate on this issue of national interest. Chief Justice Anwar Zaheer Jamali has already made it clear that the pleas would be taken up in an open court, where all objections raised by the registrar of the apex court will be removed. He has directed the authorities to proceed the case quickly.
The PTI and JI want the probe to involve all those mentioned in the Panama Papers and urge the apex court to bar Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and MNA Captain (retd) Mohammad Safdar from running their official duties.
"We have enough material to prove Nawaz Sharif’s children named in the Panama Papers have committed corruption," says Hamid Khan of PTI, continuing that three top jurists have prepared the case to raise questions of national importance. "We firmly believe it’ll bring productive and fruitful results. The PM will not be able to get away with Panama investigation."
Political parties have also knocked at the door of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to disqualify people named in the Papers for concealment of assets, including offshore companies identified in the Panama Papers. The ECP is taking up these petitions next week, where legal teams of both the PTI and PML-N are expected to present their cases. But the ECP has made it clear that it will see "the question of ECP’s jurisdiction -- either to take up this issue or not".
"PM is playing his cards very carefully. He is seeing which way the wind blows. The PTI is waiting for the PM to make a mistake," observes senior journalist Muhammad Ziauddin. According to him, three key issues --Panama Leaks, change of command in Pakistan Army and Pak-India situation -- will remain a test case for the ruling party in the coming six weeks.
Many critics view the PTI’s timing of blocking Islamabad after Muharrum as critical because that’s around the time the Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif is expected to retire, and also when the country is fighting on both eastern and western borders. Khan has even boycotted the proceedings of the parliament’s joint sitting to discuss Pak-India relations and Indian atrocities in India-held Kashmir.
In this backdrop, people are questioning Khan’s solo flight. They ask, who could possibly be backing him? "I don’t see Imran will accept military support at this stage. To some extent, he is a politically mature person. He will not use the military option," says Ziauddin.
The PPP seems in no hurry. The PPP’s top leadership, though it has called for a big rally in Sindh next week to show its power, is buying more time to regain its lost reputation. "It suits the PPP’s strategy because it would allow its top leadership to continue to soil the reputation of the Sharif brothers in the run-up to the next general elections in 2018," observes Ghumman.
PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who wants to see Sharif in jail for investing in offshore companies in Panama, claims his party will win enough votes to form the national government in 2018. His party is apparently struggling to regain lost space in the country’s largest province, Punjab. Former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is trying hard to revive the party in South Punjab. However, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has ignored workers in KP and Balochistan where many key leaders have already left their designated offices.
While all these challenges remain intact, younger Zardari reaffirms that the accountability of PM Sharif is an integral part of his campaign.
The PML-N and PPP are also playing to the parliament’s gallery, by moving separate bills on the Panama Leaks. Many parliamentarians say it’ll be a futile move as PML-N leads the National Assembly and PPP the Senate.
Time will be the best judge of developments in the SC and ECP. Political observers think they are unlikely to create trouble for the government. Leader of the Opposition Syed Khursheed Shah says they want to take up all issues in the parliament. "We’ll not go for any legal battle till we exhaust all available parliamentary options when it comes to Panama investigations.
"Though opposition stands divided on many issues, Panama Leaks is the only issue where we stand united," says Shah, who is also representing the PPP at the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) next month. Being chairman of this committee, he has directed all institutions -- National Accountability Bureau, Federal Investigation Agency, Security Exchange Commission of Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan and Law Ministry -- to submit their findings within 30 days.
"The bill on the Panama Leaks has already been referred to the senate committee and we will use this platform, along with other political parties, to get it passed from the parliament and pave way for across the board accountability of all. So many legal and constitutional avenues are available to us which will be used for the purpose," says Senator Farhatullah Babar.
As for the extension in tenure of the army chief, "I think it is a non-issue. The incumbent army chief has expressed strong views against his extension in service," he adds.