The News on Sunday: Do you think Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is in the driving seat or are things getting out of control for him?

Suhail Warraich: I think the perception is quite close to the reality as far as your question is concerned. Sharif is not totally in control of things. There are some departments which they have control over, such as departments relating to governance issues. But he is not in the driving seat on issues such as foreign policy, especially with regard to Afghanistan, India, and the US. Then there are also problems of who should be calling the shots on matters such as the Operation Zarb-e-Azb and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

TNS: How is the PML-N leadership tackling the Opposition in the presence of the Panama Leaks issue? What options do they have?

SW: The PML-N’s voters and the majority of its leadership belong to the upper middle class and all of the PML-N’s urban leadership belongs to the business community. We should remember that Pakistan’s business class has never been anti-establishment, it has always been pro-establishment. So, their dilemma is that if Sharif does anti-establishment politics, the party’s lower cadre won’t have that narrative or that mindset. In the same vein, if the PPP builds a pro-establishment narrative, its cadre wouldn’t know how to defend that. They aren’t used to that narrative. That’s why whenever relations between the establishment and the PML-N begin to fissure, 99 per cent of the party’s leadership advises Sharif to improve ties with the establishment. Similarly, whenever the PML-N leadership takes a step that is anti-establishment, they don’t receive enough support from their cadres.

Political opposition, however small or insignificant it may appear, matters a lot because you judge any government’s performance through its opposition.

The PTI is strengthening its position in Punjab. It’s replacing the PPP in Punjab. The two parties are coming together. The PTI will now have what the PPP has -- the lowest cadre people who can stage sit-ins for days. The PPP has protesters who can tackle the police and who have spent long periods behind bars and have braved lashes. The hardcore and popular politics of the two parties will pose a considerable challenge to the PML-N.

However, we should also keep in mind that the opposition in Pakistan, however strong it may be, has never been able to send a government packing -- neither through the no-confidence motion nor through street power, unless it has the support of the establishment. Governments are only toppled when the opposition and the establishment come together.

TNS: How are the civil-military relations at this moment in the context of issues such as foreign policy, extension of the COAS, and relations with Afghanistan and India?

SW: The civil-military relations are not good at this point in time; there is no doubt about that. Further, there is no option except to improve the relations. The establishment is part and parcel of the government and vice versa. If relations between the two are strained, there will be problems in dealing with foreign policy issues, the domestic policy will suffer, Pakistan’s image will be damaged, and Zarb-e-Azb and Karachi Operation will be affected. The war against corruption will also be affected. Some people say that the ‘establishment’ needs an extension and that the government and the establishment are not on the same page. Others say this is not the real issue, the real issue to them is even more important, such as Pakistan-India relations, CPEC and the difference of narrative between the establishment and the government.

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TNS: Is the PPP playing a ‘real opposition’? Or is it going to play into the hands of the PTI and the military? What’s the role of Bilawal Bhutto in steering the party and in making decisions?

SW: The PPP was playing a friendly opposition, and there is no harm in that but it should be a constructive opposition as well. In our part of the world, what we understand by ‘opposition’ is something that is always trying to bring down a government; that’s what we think of as a real opposition. People’s party is just doing that. In the not-so-distant past, the PPP would also work to support a government but today they are playing people’s politics.

There’s a difference between the politics of Asif Ali Zardari and the politics of Bilawal Bhutto. Zardari never wanted to bring down Sharif’s government. But Bilawal believes that being the opposition means bringing down a government. That is because the PPP was being criticised for playing a friendly opposition. And also because the PPP thinks that the PML-N didn’t support them on the issue of the operation in Karachi and Dr Asim Hussain’s arrest; although the PML-N said that they tried their best and talked to the establishment about Dr Asim’s arrest.

TNS: How is the PTI playing its cards? Will it be able to put up a big show or cause any real change in the democratic system?

SW: Panama Leaks may not have been able to derive a sudden reaction from the opposition, but it still is a moral question, and the government should be able to come up with a solution. Unless the government comes up with a solution the question will remain. The issue should be decided on a certain forum -- be it the forum of the Judicial Commission of Pakistan or the Election Commission of Pakistan, or the courts or the National Assembly…

TNS: In this scenario, what is your assessment of the near future?

SW: The next two months are going to be very tough for the government. They can either arrive at a solution or there can be a breakdown, because it seems that the two sides have still not made up their mind over what to do. Still, time seems to be on Sharif’s side. The more time passes the better it will be for him, whether it is the issue of the extension of the COAS or appointing a new army chief. The prime minister’s approach seems to be conciliatory. He didn’t give a press talk at the airport and issued a conciliatory statement about the opposition. If he is up for reconciliation over the TORs and with the opposition; then why not with the establishment? But still the two sides - Nawaz Sharif and the army - have not been able to make up their minds over these issues. The situation is changing fast; every new day will determine what will happen next. That’s why I am saying that the next two months are very crucial as far as our politics is concerned.