Climate change poses a real and grave threat to the human civilisation. It could bring in its wake floods, cyclones, droughts, desertification, land degradation, devastating earthquakes and, possibly, termination of some cultures, as it did millennia before.

Presently, nearly 800 million people are chronically undernourished as a direct consequence of land degradation, declining soil fertility, unsustainable water use, drought and biodiversity loss, requiring long-term solutions to help communities increase resilience on climate change, US Secretary General Ban Ki-moon stated on June 17, this year. Over the next 25 years, land degradation could reduce global food productivity by 12 per cent, leading to a 30 per cent increase in world food prices, Ban Ki-moon warned.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s position on the global climate risk has climbed up two levels, making it the eighth on the list of countries prone to natural and manmade disasters, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said in a report released on June 19, 2016. Due to its geographic location and topographical layout, Pakistan faced extreme environmental and climatic challenges, giving rise to a multitude of hazards, including hydro-meteorological, seismic and manmade. Resultantly, the spectrum of disasters was wide, ranging over natural calamities like extreme rain events, glacial lake outburst floods, landslides, droughts, cyclones, heat waves, mini cyclones, avalanches, etc.

The enormity of these challenges called for a well thought of, coherent, concerted and coordinated approach to be collectively forged by all state organs, civil society organisations, media houses, intelligentsia and public at large.

In the past 120 years, 143 disasters have been recorded in Pakistan, causing a loss of 3,931.4 million dollars, equalling 0.7 per cent of GDP. "We cannot fight with natural disasters but can prevent, mitigate and prepare ourselves against the likely impacts that may occur during any disaster. In this regard, information exchange with the masses through regular media reporting on natural disasters can play a pivotal role in timely life-saving and effective response measures," NDMA’s report added.

In Pakistan, agriculture could be one of the major sectors likely to be adversely affected by climate change. A crop stimulation model-based study shows that wheat yields would be drastically reduced in irrigated areas as well as in rain-fed areas towards the end of 21^st century. In the semi-arid irrigated areas of Faisalabad and Sheikhupura, wheat yields would be reduced by 3.4 to 12.5 per cent; while in arid areas of Multan, Bahawalpur, Badin and Hyderablad wheat yields would go down by 3.8 to 14 per cent and in rain-fed areas of Chakwal upto 16 per cent. In basmati rice tract, the yield is expected to be reduced by 10.4 per cent to 11.4 per cent, 15.8 per cent to 16.5 per cent and 17.8 per cent to 21.5 per cent by 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively.

By 2040, according to the World Wildlife Fund, up to 10 per cent of Pakistan’s agricultural output would be affected by climate change. The global warming could not only make it more difficult to produce crops, the reduction in crop yields could also push food prices up, adding to the miseries of the bottom 40 per cent of the population. Besides disasters, unprecedented floods could play havoc with agriculture.

The latest official data released by the government also depicts a negative growth in agricultural output during the 2015-16 financial year. Furthermore, the pattern of agricultural growth over the last 15 years shows an increase in both the size and frequency of fluctuations in agricultural output. This means frequency of bad harvests has not only increased but that bad harvests, when they occur, are much worse than before. The most important reason for increased fluctuations is global warming.

In general, an increase in temperature will lead to shortening of ‘Grow Season Length’ (GSL) for wheat and rice crops in all the selected wheat growing districts and basmati tract of the country. The likely emerging situation should be a matter of serious concern for the planners and thinkers of an agricultural country, like Pakistan where timber mafia fells thousands of trees in alleged connivance with the forest department every year and many thousands are burnt to ashes in jungles. The timber mafia continues to destroy this source of oxygen to satisfy their lust for making quick bucks, but no one seems to be bothered.

Of late, heavy rainfalls, thunderstorms and heat waves have become a common feature in Pakistan due to environmental degradation, air and water pollution, ozone layer depletion, deforestation, desertification, vanishing bio-diversity and land degradation, consequently resulting in climate change and ecological imbalance.

During the last two years, the heat wave caused around 2,000 deaths in Pakistan. According to the centre for disease control and prevention, Karachi in particular remained in its grip. On June 1, this year, the extreme weather conditions again played havoc in Pakistan, killing 35 persons as walls and roofs collapsed while billboards and trees were uprooted.

To cope with the growing challenges of the climate change, Pakistan has established a dedicated Ministry of Climate Change and allocated to it Rs1,040 million in the outgoing fiscal year. This year too, the government has promised adequate funds for the Ministry of Climate Change, and it has already allocated one billion rupees for the Green Pakistan Programme. The government has also allocated Rs27 million for two ongoing projects -- Rs10 million for the establishment of Geomatic Centre for Climate Change and Rs17 million for Sustainable Development and Land Management Programme aimed at combating desertification.

Pakistan also needs to spur efforts for increasing crop yields by opting for the best agricultural practices and building water reservoirs and dams -- including small and big dams -- wherever possible, all over the country.

According to the latest research, climate change, probably, led to the end of some ancient cultures, including the Indus Valley -- one of the oldest in a list of cultures. As per a research report published by Nature, the Indus Valley Civilisation which, according to the new research studies dates back to 8,000 years, is older than the ancient Egyptian and Mesopotamian cultures. What happened to Harappa, Ghagra, Moenjodaro and Ghandhara civilisations is anybody’s guess. However, the latest research leads one to the conclusion that climate change is a real threat for the human civilisation.

They say forewarned is forearmed. As the planet earth is on the verge of heat stroke (which is likely to become more frequent and intense in future), this brings to the fore the need for tackling the likely emerging situation on a war footing. For brain-storming, the authorities need to organise seminars, workshops and conferences, on a regular basis, on best possible agricultural practices so that our agricultural produce remains competitive and we could avoid reduction in per acre yields. Besides, liberal incentives should be given to organisations that harness cleaner sources (alternate energy sources), like wind, solar, biomass, etcetera, for electricity production. Burning of organic waste and tyres should be banned.

The global warming, caused by green house gases (GHGs), is the price of development that the human being is paying. But, the fruits of development have been harvested by the rich developed countries where development activities, factory emissions, modern techniques of agriculture and jet-set life styles are contributing to global warming in a big way. But, developing countries like Pakistan with least contribution to this phenomenon have to bear the brunt of ravages that have been accentuated by the activities of rich counties. Since the North is responsible for three-fourths of accumulated GHGs, logically it should also financially and technologically support the poorer South’s climate actions, as required under the Kyoto Protocol and the Durban accord.

At the Paris Climate Summit, the envoys of 195 nations approved, on December 12, 2015, the first ever global accord to tame global warming. This pact, which would come into force from 2020, aims at saving the mankind from disastrous global warming and help the vulnerable developing nations to cope with the vagaries of climate change. On their part, the vulnerable developing states need to set up dedicated agencies from the grass root to the national level to cope with the challenges of global warming, adequately equip those outfits with the necessary infrastructure and trained staff, create awareness amongst the local communities about the likely impact of global warming as well as guide and train them how to face those challenges.