Plot thickens

July 3, 2016

The battle between the ruling party and the opposition which started with Panama investigation reaches the ECP

Plot thickens

Will Pakistan’s politics take a dramatic turn or continue moving in circles? The answer to this significant question will soon unfold, with the opposition political parties preparing to wage both legal and street battle against the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, currently in London for medical treatment.

Some argue the stakes are too high for both the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government and the two opposition parties -- Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

The plot against the government itself, particularly the prime minister, seems to have thickened after both the PPP and PTI sought his disqualification, in the references they filed before the Election Commission of Pakistan. They claim that he has lied to the nation about the wealth owned by his children abroad.

Apart from legal battle, the opponents of Sharifs have also threatened him with street agitation -- to mobilise the people against his alleged involvement in stashing money abroad through offshore companies. The most important factor is as to how the powerful military perceives the political chaos at that time.

The opponents of Sharif believe the momentum is on their side and that the revelations of Panama Papers could ultimately deal a lethal blow to the ruling party. They believe that come what may the government will never agree to form a judicial commission which will put Sharif in the dock.

"The battle has become multi-pronged," says Senator Farhatullah Babar of PPP. When asked about the role of the Parliamentary Committee formed to prepare the Terms of References for forming a judicial commission to probe those named in the Panama Papers, Babar says: "I don’t think the parliamentary option has ended. Instead, as the issue reverberates in Election Commission of Pakistan and National Accountability Bureau, the pressure for resorting to parliament will increase next month."

The battle between the ruling party and political opponents which started from Panama investigastion has now reached the ECP after the PTI and PPP filed separate references against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Apart from a hostile opposition, some other daunting tasks await the prime minister. In around three months, he has to decide about the new chief of Pakistan’s powerful military, a decision that cost him his government in 1999.

Many legal experts opine that the references filed against PM by PTI and PPP seem "low in weight and weaker in arguments". The PTI’s reference filed by Dr Yasmin Rashid is based on section 42 (a) of The Representation of the People Act 1976 while the PPP’s reference filed by its Secretary General Sardar Latif Khosa alleges that PM Sharif has failed to fulfill the spirit of Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution.

Former President Supreme Court Bar Association Kamran Murtaza says if PTI and PPP want to get the PM disqualified under Article 62 and 63 of the 1973 Constitution, both parties must seek a declaration from the court because the ECP is not a court.

"In the light of Article 62, a declaration is always required from a court that the person against whom the allegations are being made is not ‘sadiq and ameen’ and not from the ECP," he says. "The references filed by PTI and PPP suffer from lacuna as apparently the wrong forum has been chosen. Even for inappropriate submission of declaration of assets and liabilities, the person could be prosecuted if the ECP files a complaint against him but he cannot be disqualified."

This battle can ultimately go to the Supreme Court as the ECP is dysfunctional and both the government and Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly are trying to develop consensus on names of new ECP members, say experts.

After the Parlsiamentary Committee meets a dead end, the only option left for the opposition parties is to mount pressure through demonstrations for which both PTI Chief Imran Khan and PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari have already given clear indications. To provide fuel to street agitation, Tahirul Qadri, who looked inspired from opposition parties, has also announced a campaign against the government after Eid.

"Although PPP and PTI have filed references with the ECP against the prime minister, the final battle between the two sides will be fought out in the streets. For one, the ECP is incomplete at the moment. Secondly, the SC has already excused itself from the probe until the two sides reached a consensus," says Khawar Ghumman, an Islamabad-based journalist.

Many experts suggest the street option is not a viable one. "It will end up harming the democratic process," says Bushra Gohar, senior leader of Awami National Party. In her opinion, the PML-N government has handled the matter badly and is responsible for the political chaos.

Apart from a hostile opposition, some other daunting tasks await the prime minister. In around three months, he has to decide about the new chief of Pakistan’s powerful military, a decision that cost him his government in 1999. To revamp the foreign policy with consultation of military establishment is another challenge for him, as Pakistan faces isolation in the region.

Besides all this, Sharif’s ailing health might continue to haunt him in the coming days as many are whispering about his successor in case the doctors advise him complete rest.

Plot thickens