There seems no peace unless foreign interventions stop and the Syrian government agrees to a democratic transition
The end of May was not an auspicious week for Syria. On May 30, the peace talks stalled again as the chief negotiator from one of the main opposition groups resigned and termed these negotiations a failure.
Mohammed Alloush was representing High Negotiation Committee (HNC) which is a Saudi Arabia-backed coalition of 34 groups. The HNC excludes Syrian Kurdish groups that were not invited for talks mainly because Turkey objects to any recognition given to Kurds. While resigning, Alloush made it clear that the talks could not lead to any meaningful political compromise as the besieged areas in Syria were still being bombarded by the Syrian government with the Russian support.
The UN-backed talks were supposed to start in Geneva so that a political solution could be sought for the Syrian crisis. Mohammed Alloush belongs to the rebel Salafist group Jaysh al-Islam which has full support from the Saudi government. Jaysh al-Islam or the Army of Islam is a powerful fighter group that contains in its fold mostly Salafi Muslims who preach one of the most conservative doctrines of Islam. They call themselves reformists but their proposed reforms tend to be retrogressive and based on the premise that the early Islamic period was the golden age that needs to be brought back.
Salafis oppose almost all innovations and improvisations that moderate Muslims propose to suite modern times. In Salafi parlance, any such innovation would be Bidaat and contrary to what Aslaf or pious forefathers practiced. Though Salafis are commonly clubbed with Wahabis -- another sect that originated in the 18th century Arabia -- they prefer to be called Salafis, as the term Wahabi is not much appreciated. Salafis are self-proclaimed defenders of Sharia (Islamic law) but not all of them are militants; there are some passive Salafis too who avoid being actively involved in politics.
Alloush’s Jaysh al-Islam has been active in Syria, especially in areas surrounding the Syrian capital Damascus, where it is considered as the biggest rebel group. Initially, it was a member of the Islamic Front that was created after the merger of seven rebel groups in 2013 and enjoyed enormous Saudi backing. It needs to be kept in mind that Jaysh al-Islam is entirely different from Free Syrian Army (FSA) that was set up by some disgruntled army officers who parted ways with Bashar al-Asad in 2011 and sought help from the US and other western powers who were spearheading an international campaign to dislodge the Asad regime.
So if we look at it in a chronological order, the Free Syrian Army was formed in 2011 with the US help, and then after two years Saudi Arabia conjured up the Islamic Front that also contained Jaysh al-Islam. According to some estimates, in its heyday the FSA could mobilise as many as 30,000 fighters but gradually its ranks thinned -- some say because of Obama’s lack of interest in continuing support to them. Obama’s cautious Syria policy also led to another group’s increased activities i.e. Ahrarus Sham.
Ahrarus Sham is an ally of Jaysh al-Islam -- both being Salafi dominated and both enjoying support from Saudi Arabia via Turkey. In this drama, Turkey enjoys a dubious position thanks to its proximity with Syria; on one side Turkey is seeking financial and other benefits from European countries in the name of refugees, and on the other Saudi Arabia is too keen to channel funds to its favourite anti-Asad groups through Turkey. Interestingly, Jaysh al-Islam that is enjoying full support from Saudi Arabia and Turkey, is considered a terrorist organisation by Egypt, Iran, Russia, and of course Syria itself.
Mohammed Alloush’s cousin and brother-in-law, Zahran Alloush, had played an important role in the creation of Jaysh al-Islam. Before being killed in an attack, Zahran had declared that he wanted to cleanse Syria of Alavis and Shias. Asad family belongs to Alavis who are a sub-sect of Shias living in the western part of Syria and have ruled for almost half a century. Zahran Alloush was released from jail in July 2011 but immediately after his release he resumed his terrorist activities and in one such attack some top Syrian officials were killed; the victims included the defence minister, deputy defence minister, and assistant vice president of Syria.
Now, Mohammed Alloush is demanding unconditional release of thousands of anti-Asad prisoners. Obviously such demand is unacceptable to the Syrian government; no party in power will release fighters whom it considers terrorists, anticipating an immediate resumption of sabotage activities by them, as Zahran Alloush had done. Mohammed Alloush terms the Syrian government criminal and makes no secret of his plans to rid Syria of the Asad family. If you compare this with Pakistan or Afghanistan, the problem becomes easier to understand. Taliban apologists have been calling for negotiations with them, knowing fully well that any talks with the insurgents means releasing hardened criminals and even sharing power with them. It is only after the Army Public School attack that the demand to negotiate with Taliban subsided and an operation was launched.
The latest situation in Syria is that the HNC has suspended its involvement in any negotiations. The three attempts to initiate talks have failed and no new date has been given. The Syrian government is not interested in discussing any proposal about removing Bashar al-Asad and establishing a transition government. Temporarily, the US and Russia seem to have agreed on a truce, but that is violated every now and then.
Five years have passed since the civil war started; hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed and more than ten million have been displaced. Just a week earlier, on May 24, seven powerful bomb explosions in two coastal cities killed over a hundred people. Syria blamed these attacks on Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia; whereas the responsibility was claimed not by Jaysh al-Islam but by the fighters of the so-called Islamic State that occupies most riverine areas of the Euphrates and Tigris.
These explosions specifically targeted those areas that have been supporting Bashar al-Asad and opposing the rebel groups. These well-coordinated bomb attacks took place within minutes after two initial blasts so that even relief workers could be targeted. To conclude, no ray of hope can be sighted at the moment unless foreign interventions stop and the Syrian government agrees to a democratic transition.