Though schedule of the upcoming elections in Azad Jammu and Kashmir has not been announced yet, electioneering has already started in the region. A cutthroat competition is expected between Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League-N across the AJK.

The PPP, which is ruling AJK since 2011, is flexing its muscles to pitch a strong fight against the PML-N that enjoys full-fledged backing of the federal government along with huge financial and administrative backing of the powerful Ministry of Kashmir Affair, which almost runs a parallel administration in AJK through the Kashmir Council, the Upper House of the AJK Assembly.

Interestingly, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari himself is leading the election campaign in Azad Kashmir. He has addressed huge public gatherings in southern and northern districts of AJK including Kotli and Bagh in recent weeks wherein he publicly pledged that he would take back the entire Kashmir from India. He severely criticised Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s soft approach towards India. In Bagh, he stated that Nawaz Sharif is "jeopardising the issue of Kashmir by building his associations with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi."

On the other hand, a group of federal ministers, led by Chaudhry Barjees Tahir, Pervez Rashid and Dr Asif Kirmani, are spearheading the PML-N’s campaign in AJK. Their public rallies in the Mirpur division, Bagh, Rawalakot and Muzaffarabad were well attended. Voters, political workers and potential winning candidates are largely inclined towards PML-N due to anti-incumbency factor.

Besides, the PPP has not been able to provide efficient governance during its nearly five-year long tenure in the region. In fact, the PPP government in AJK was not given a free hand to run local affairs. It is basically a remote-controlled government, supervised and managed by the PPP’s central leadership where even the prime minister of AJK was not allowed to take petty administrative measures on his own, let alone major political or policy decisions.

However, during the last few months, the PPP has started to sort out matters between Islamabad and Muzaffarabad. It is trying hard to assert its authority and champion the issues which are very close to the hearts of AJK’s people. For instance, it has accused Barjees Tahir, Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs, of running a parallel government in AJK and distributing the Kashmir Council’s funds among the League’s candidates without the consent of the government of AJK.

Astonishingly, Prime Minister Chaudhry Abdul Majeed, along with his cabinet, symbolically staged a protest in front of the Parliament House in Islamabad against the choking of the AJK budget by Islamabad. It was an unprecedented remonstration witnessed for the first time in the history of AJK as any prime minister of AJK had never protested publicly against Islamabad’s mistreatment. Thus, it embarrassed the central government and the PML-N.

On the behest of the ruling PPP, two members of the Kashmir Council staged a ten-day sit-in in front of the Minister for Kashmir Affairs’ office in Islamabad whom they accused of redirecting their development funds to the PML-N loyalists in AJK to help them win the upcoming elections. Even the AJK president joined the sit-in to show solidarity with the demonstrators. These activities, largely led by the anti-PML-N parties, put the federal government on the back foot.

Sadly, a worker of the People’s Party was killed in the border town of Nakyal allegedly by a mob of the PML-N supporters a few months ago. The incident pitched both the parties against each other and a war of words dominated the sessions of the National Assembly too. It was the first incident of political violence in the pre-elections setting.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, led by Barrister Sultan Mahmood, who has considerable political experience being the former prime minister and opposition leader, is running a massive election campaign and organising public rallies across AJK to secure some seats in the AJK Assembly. Imran Khan, the PTI’s chief, also addressed a huge public meeting in the capital city of AJK, Muzaffarabad. Like Bilawal Bhutto, he also termed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Kashmir policy docile and pro-Indian. He charged that the Sharif government is intentionally ignoring the Kashmir issue as his family has developed deep business interests in India.

Sensing that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif cannot give them a rebuttal in the same coin, both Bilawal and Imran Khan upped the ante by terming the PML-N a pro-India party.

Although, 37 political parties are registered with the AJK’s Election Commission, only a few of them enjoy a reasonable public following on the ground. Muslim Conference, Jammu and Kashmir People’s Party, Jamaat-e-Islami and the MQM are in the fray and expecting to bag a few seats in the assembly. These parties do not possess many winning horses but if they get together in their acts, they have the potential to make a big difference.

So far, only the Muslim Conference and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf have officially formed an electoral alliance. However, political pundits predict that it might lead to a broader alliance among Muslim Conference, the PTI, the JK-PPP and Jamaat-e-Islami. The ruling People’s Party is also deeply interested in making some seat adjustments with smaller parties to pitch strong candidates against the PML-N.

As far as the PML-N is concerned, it is also interested to get around some of the likeminded parties such as JK-PPP or Jamaat-e-Islami but its own district party leadership is strongly opposing the idea. Everyone in the PML-N wants to clinch the top slot no matter what cost the party has to pay.

While speaking to TNS the AJK chief of PML-N, Raja Farooq Haider Khan, stated that it is natural to have some internal party differences when the elections are approaching and the party leadership is capable of overcoming them amicably. However, the anti-PML-N forces got emboldened when the political situation in Pakistan took a dramatic turn after the Panama Leaks exposed the offshore companies owned by the Sharif family. The growing pressure on the federal government helped the anti-PML-N parties improve their approval rating. Some of the sitting ministers have recently ditched the ruling People’s Party and are now weighing their options to join other potential parties.

The next two weeks are fairly decisive as political parties are about to make public their manifestos and the final lists of their candidates. Some of the big guns might switch their loyalties and join other parties if they fail to get party tickets from the PPP or the PML-N. Sultan Mahmood of the PTI is heavily banking on these turncoats, particularly from the PPP.

Conducting free and fair elections is a gigantic task for the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) of AJK, Justice Ghulam Mustafa Mughal, who has limited financial resources as well as manpower. So far, he has done a commendable job by removing the bogus voter lists. Recently, he revealed that nearly 400,000 voters have been removed -- either they were dual voters or not citizens of AJK.

Besides, holding free and fair elections on 12 Kashmiri Refugees seats, mainly located in Punjab, is also an arduous task as the Punjab government hardly cooperates to hold fair election on these seats. Likewise, two Kashmiri Refugees seats are located in Karachi where the MQM used to manage elections in its favour without proper polling or elections campaign.