Brazil is pitched into what looks like a protracted political crisis. The immediate crisis has arisen out of a conjunction of events: the decision of the incumbent president, Dilma Rousseff, to draft in the ex-president, Lula, as cabinet minister with the rank of chief of staff, the Supreme Federal Court’s decision to halt the appointment, withdrawal  of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (BDMP), government’s coalition partner, from government, the hyperactive role of the lower judiciary in prosecuting the ruling party in full gaze of the media and initiation of impeachment proceedings against the president.

Yet the crisis has not materialised from nowhere. In fact, it has been building up since the fourth consecutive electoral victory of the left-of centre Brazilian Workers’ Party (PT) in 2014 election. This fourth win, which propelled Dilma Rousseff back into the presidential palace for her second term, has rung alarm bells in the camp of right wing and right of centre political parties, the mainstream media and traditional white elite allied to these parties. The sense of alarm is further accentuated by the prospect of Lula returning to the presidency at the expiry of Dilma’s second term in office. In the event of this happening, the hegemony of Lula-founded Workers Party (PT) in Brazilian politics will have been established and the right exiled from political office for the foreseeable future. This prospect troubles the right wingers who have not reconciled with progressive reforms introduced under the Workers Party (PT) rule.

Therefore, the hidden purpose of these seemingly justice-draped moves is to stop PT in its tracks by stripping Dilma Rousseff, of her office midway through her second term as a first step. Most people see in these concerted moves the beginning of a constitutional coup against an elected government.

Observers see some of President Dilma’s troubles of her own making while others see factors beyond her control. Unlike her predecessor, Lula, who navigated a shaky coalition of political forces with his characteristic political dexterity, Dilma has failed to manage the complex political arithmetic and balance political forces inside and outside the parliament. This partly explains her increasing parliamentary woes and her rush to draft in her mentor to smooth the troubled waters.

More importantly, her difficulties are further magnified by great economic crisis which has been gathering up during the past few years. Brazilian economy has plunged into depression, thanks, partly to a slowdown of the Chinese economy which has been the mainstay of Brazil’s export markets. However, political knives have been out well before Dilma’s narrow election victory in 2014 election. In 2013, on the eve of the world football, Dilma faced a wave of popular protests over bus fare hikes.

The protests, growing out of genuine grievance over the rising cost of living, were hijacked by right political forces to weaken the president. However, Dilma’s narrow electoral victory silenced her political foes. Despite her win, the spectre of corruption scandal, dubbed car wash, haunted her second term. The scandal revolves around the practice of favourable contracts and kickbacks doled out by state-run oil company Petrobras. Those involved are said to include all the high and mighty of political and financial world.

Interestingly, most of those indicted are not members of the PT but members of the opposition parties, previously allied with the PT, and now leading impeachment charge against the president. President Dilma herself is largely blameless in the scandal. Yet the focus of the mainstream media remains on the role of the president rather than those indicted.

In a side show of crude power, the judicial arm of the government has acted in a way which strengthens the impression that the judiciary is not a neutral observer in the drama. Sergio Moro, the overzealous judge of the lower court, rumoured to be close to the defeated presidential candidate, staged the spectacle of questioning Lula in sight of the friendly media. Not only this, the judge released wire-taped conversation between Lula and the president about the position of chief of staff being offered to Lula in order to allegedly shield him from further investigation (a cabinet minister enjoys immunity from the lower court; only Supreme Federal Court can investigate a cabinet minister).

The appointment has been blocked by the Supreme Federal Court for the moment because of legal challenges mounted against the appointment. The blatant intervention of the judiciary is being termed as politically motived by large sections of the population and the intellectuals allied to the left-of-centre political current in Brazilian politics.

In a further effort to squeeze the president, the opposition, aided by media have instituted impeachment proceedings against the president. The grounds for impeachment rest on a shaky foundation: Dilma’s role in hiding the budget deficit by restoring to the widespread, and largely tolerated practice of moving funds from one account to another in the run up to the budget to cover up the deficit. Until now, this practice has been overlooked by all parliamentary parties which are in the impeachment van.

Dilma has called the impeachment proceedings without a shred of evidence as crime. The impeachment process was given a lethal boost when the PMDB left the coalition government and joined the opposition. The ring leader of the coup is the leader of PMDB, Michel Temer, the vice president of Brazil, who himself is deeply implicated in the Petrobras scandal. This blatant and unconstitutional assault on the government has led to social movements and other group organising on the side of the government.

The country is split down the middle with the attendant possibility of full-scale social conflict erupting with huge long term implications for the stability of democratic culture and preservation of social gains of the PT-led government. The next few weeks are very crucial for the government and its wider allies in the Brazilian society. A lot rides on how the Supreme Federal Court reacts and whether Dilma can see off impeachment proceedings.