The ice between the two neighbouring countries is finally melting. There is talk of a new dialogue process and a careful, calculated optimism around it. With the memory of Sushma Swaraj and Sartaj Aziz wrestling it out on broadcast media still fresh, Pakistan and India begin this time with a much needed sense of sobriety.

The three minute long ‘chance meeting’ between Sharif and Modi in Paris got the ball rolling and was followed by the Bangkok meeting between the national security advisers of both countries where issues, such as Kashmir and peace and security were discussed. Swaraj’s suo motu statement in the Indian parliament on the recent developments in Indo-Pak relations after her visit to Islamabad for the Heart of Asia Conference did not dwell much on the reasons for the sudden change of heart of the Modi government with respect to Pakistan after months of intense posturing in the diplomatic arena.

However, the ‘sharp realisation’ that constructive engagement, instead of continued estrangement, will prove to be instrumental in bringing about regional stability and prosperity should be taken as a welcome development. Coming from a country that can perhaps due to its sheer size and clout in the international community take the lead, it is an encouraging sign.

The Modi regime, visibly grounded after defeat in the elections -- Kashmir, Bihar, and even Delhi -- is now finally looking at reality. That it is "trying to turn the course of history" by resuming talks with Pakistan is something that is quite uncharacteristic. In this pursuit, it will find itself to be performing the ultimate balancing act -- keeping the loyalty of its core constituency (those who share the Hindutva dream) and keeping up with the demands of the international community (the US, to be specific).

"The Modi government has no Pakistan strategy. If this is their strategy -- one that is prompted by domestic politics and international pressure alternatively -- God help us," says lawyer and social activist, Shehzad Poonawalla. "Any government with a serious commitment to peace would fare better than the Modi government on Pakistan," he adds.

While talking to TNS, Poonawalla who is well-known in India’s political and media circles, expressed his skepticism on the possibility that the current trend of improvement in Indo-Pak relations will continue in future.

"You have to understand that BJP is a majoritarian, anti-Muslim party. Making peace with Pakistan means they lose a very important political mobilisation plank. [In the] last elections, Modi as a prime ministerial candidate said all kinds of hate-mongering things about Pakistan. He did that in Gujarat, too, as CM," he says.

"You think he or his party want peace? See what is happening in Nepal where Modi had gone as a ‘messiah’. I am ashamed of the policy he has adopted towards Nepal where innocent people are suffering," he adds.

His view is that the establishment in Pakistan benefits from having India as an ‘enemy’ as it gets access to resources and can wield power.

"Till these forces exist, I doubt terrorism will stop, LoC firing will stop or peace will be achieved. The only solution is a strong democratic government in Pakistan, a rational and peace-oriented government in India and [the strengthening of] people-to-people relationships (between the two countries)," he concludes.

Read also: The constituency of peace

Democracy in Pakistan is still evolving. Democracy, after all, is a process and not an event. The rights and privileges that one is entitled to in a democratic dispensation are still not fully understood and democratic values are still being internalised. Politicians, the armed forces, and the electorate are all gradually getting used to it. The civil-military relationship is just as curious and despite the fact that it is often the subject of debate in mainstream discourse, discussing the issue of civilian supremacy gives rise to a lot of discomfort regardless of individual leanings.

It is crucial to understand that for Pakistan to make its case with authority and lucidity when engaging with India, the civilian leadership must come forward and proceed with confidence and prudence on the back of the thumping mandate awarded to it by the electorate. Cooperation between the civil and military leadership is also crucial. In the backdrop of a shaky and unpredictable relationship between the two, both Pakistan’s domestic challenges (in the realm of traditional security and non-traditional security) and those on the international front will be magnified.

‘On national interest, there can be no compromise’ is a statement that has been used to justify even the most questionable of actions in Pakistan. Perhaps, there is a need to redefine national interest beyond just maintaining the status quo. Economic development, the social uplift of the masses and the prevalence of peace and tranquility are all matters of national interest. It is a matter of national interest that Pakistan and India seek to resolve outstanding issues and that Pakistan come forth with a renewed determination.

"There have been shocks to the dialogue process -- the Mumbai attacks in 2008, in 1998 there were the nuclear tests and then there was Kargil. So, one thing that you need to be very careful about is that there is protection against such shocks to the dialogue process," says Iqbal Ahmad Khan, former Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India.

"It would be very unrealistic for people to expect that within a year or two, there will be concrete results. There would be concrete results, as they say, as far as the low-hanging fruits are concerned. Those low-hanging fruits are -- if you (Pakistan) enter into a commercial agreement, if you give India the MFN status (now NDMA) which they have already given you but you haven’t, which you categorically entered into an agreement that by December 2012 you would have given them MFN status," he adds.

He believes there is a need to structure the NDMA in a manner where the conditions take care of Pakistan’s local industry, adding that India has certain non-tariff barriers that need to come down so that ultimately there is a level-playing field. India will agree, he thinks.

Lt Gen (retd) Talat Masood, senior defence analyst, shares his optimism. "There are certain indications and international and regional circumstances which are pushing the two countries to change their policies. That is the reason why there is some hope that this is going to be much more durable than the previous ones. There will be a genuine effort on the part of both countries to make it a success," he says.

He expects the changing global scenario to weigh in and improve Indo-Pak ties. He believes the advantages of economic and political cooperation are huge and that Modi understands the importance of peace now that he wants the Indian economy to grow.

To save the relationship from worsening in the wake of constant threat of terror, he suggests using confidence building measures (CBMs) to restore trust and build a sound and firm relationship.

"CBMs are already there but they need to be implemented in the right spirit. India and Pakistan have worked a lot on this," he suggests, adding, "They need to activate these at the right time. For instance, if the LoC gets unstable, we should immediately resort to CBMs at every level, if the situation gets really out of hand, right up to the prime ministerial level," he opines.

The current string of events has breathed a new life into Indo-Pak relations. The hopefulness is deemed logical and warranted, especially after the hiatus post the cancellation of NSA-level talks in August 2015. These developments mark the beginning of a more stable relationship but need to be taken with a pinch of salt. One thing is for sure -- with the world at large watching -- the coming months will be a true test of resolve for both the countries.