Pakistan ranks among the top 10 countries vulnerable to climate change. Even amongst top vulnerable countries, some nations like Bangladesh and the Maldives face only one type of threat -- rise in sea level. But, Pakistan faces multiple threats though with just 0.08 per cent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it remains one of the lowest contributors to the increase in global temperature.

Flooding due to unpredictable rains (like the ones the country witnessed in 2010 and 2011) and glacial melt that Chitralis braved this year (2015) top the list of possible threats from global warming for a country that has the largest land mass under glaciers outside the North Pole. Some other possible threats that it faces include: drought and desertification that is already hitting parts of Sindh and Balochistan; and intrusion of sea into the Indus delta. Among non-traditional climate change threats, one may list heat waves like the one that recently enveloped Karachi, hailstorms, sandstorms and duststorms, tornadoes, fog, landslides and wildfires.

To formulate policy guidelines for cutting GHG emissions and keeping global temperature increase below two (degrees) centigrade, a very important conference -- Conference of the Parties (COP21) -- is being held in Paris from November 30, 2015 to December 11, 2015. An annual feature, the COP reviews response to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (held in Rio in 1995) and Koyoto Protocol that puts a cap on emissions. Under the landmark 1997 Kyoto Protocol, it was obligatory for the developed countries to cut down carbon emissions to levels agreed by them by 2012. Well before the deadline, the developed nations managed to get at least five years extension, under an accord in Durban (South Africa) on December 11, 2011.

Environmentalists criticise the Durban package for failing to move faster and deeper in cutting carbon emissions. Logically, the time to act is now, scientists maintain. They say that unless carbon emissions -- chiefly carbon dioxide (CO2) from power generation and industry -- level are reversed within a few years, the earth will be set on a possibly irreversible path of rising temperatures that lead to ever greater climate catastrophes.

Some states argued that the developing countries have less responsibility than industrial nations that caused the global warming problem through 200 years of pollution. Therefore, the Durban package does not seem equitable, especially for developing countries that account for a minute fraction of global warming but have to pay the heaviest costs in the face of erratic weather in Asia and Africa.

How to tackle the climate change? Successive COPs have been brainstorming on this issue. Finally, they have succeeded in taking concrete measures, like creating a Green Climate Fund (GCF) for projects, programmes, policies and other activities in the developing countries using thematic funding windows. The GCF could also help identify climate friendly technologies, facilitate their deployment and adaptation to the needs of developing countries, build national/regional technology management capacity, and support research, development and demonstration of new climate friendly technologies.

Meanwhile, climate scientists have warned that concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere have reached new heights and are rapidly contributing to an average rise of 2 to 2.4 Celsius (C) in temperatures. Scientists believe any rise above 2C threshold could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes on earth -- both over land and in the seas.

The earth can cope with maximum global warming of 1.5 to 2 (degree) C. Global warming at 3ºC can result in the crossing of many "tipping points," including near-disappearance of the Arctic summer sea-ice, degradation of the Amazon rain forest, and instability in the South Asian summer monsoon, rendering any remedial action ineffective. In case global warming reaches 4ºC, climate scientists warn, only one-tenth of the global population will survive. The rapid rise in GHGs is reducing mankind’s ability to limit warming to safe levels, lending credence to apprehensions that the prospects of limiting the warming may close in this very decade.

Across the world, over 710,000 people died from 1991 to 2010 from 14,000 extreme weather events, incurring economic losses in today’s terms of over $2.3 trillion. When seen across this 20 year period, not a single developed country features in the top 10 for climate risk. Only one -- Russia -- featured in the top 20, as a result of July 2010 heat wave. The results underscore poor countries’ vulnerability to climate risks.

According to scientists, floods in Pakistan, forest fires in Russia, mudslides in China and droughts in Sub-Sahara Africa are enunciations of scenarios which they had been predicting since long due to the impact of GHGs, like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide. These climate changes, scientists warn, can contribute to the disasters, like 2010 and 2011 floods in Pakistan, happening more frequently and more intense in future.

The highlands, in particular, are vulnerable to Glacier Lake Outburst Floods as overall glaciers retreat and additional snow melt can increase the amount of water dammed in the vicinity of a glacier, and the added pressure enhances the likelihood of disastrous outburst flooding. Pakistan has some 5,218 glaciers, over 13,680 square kilometres or 13 per cent of mountains in the Upper Indus Basin, and 2,420 lakes of which 50 are reportedly to be highly dangerous and may cause flooding in the Indus Basin.

Amongst other damages of global warming, Pakistan is experiencing biodiversity loss, shifts in weather patterns and changes in fresh water supply. The phenomenon of global warming might impact the snow and rain patterns and the availability of snow melt during summer. Normally, Pakistani rivers receive almost 70 per cent of their flow from snow melt.

These changes, particularly in patterns of rainfall, glacial retreat and snowmelt, could cause unexpected floods in rain-deficient regions and create drought like conditions in fertile areas. These changes could accentuate after 2050 when, scientists forecast, presently shrinking Himalayan glaciers could disappear.

Caused by GHGs, the global warming is the price of development that the human being is paying. But, the fruits of development have been harvested by the rich developed countries where development activities, factory emissions, modern techniques of agriculture and jet-set life styles are contributing in a big way to global warming. But, developing countries, like Pakistan, with least contribution to this phenomenon, have to bear the brunt of ravages that have been accentuated by the activities of rich counties.

Since 1992 Earth Summit under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 20 rounds of UNFCCC negotiations have been held so far, but these have failed to give full effect to CBDR (common but differentiated responsibilities). The stumbling blocks remain issues like: who should undertake emission reductions besides the 40 developed Annex I countries; what the reductions’ magnitude and legal form should be; and, who should finance climate change actions of the South.

CBDR mandates that the North take the lead in reducing emissions. Since the North is responsible for three-fourths of accumulated GHGs, logically it should also financially and technologically support the poorer South’s climate actions. However, so far the North has delivered very little in emissions cut or funds. In other words, the developed countries have not fully met their obligations under the world’s sole legally-binding Kyoto climate protocol, under which they were obliged to reduce their 1990-level emissions by five per cent by 2008-2012.

No doubt, vast stretches of wetlands and adequate forestation could have greatly reduced the ferocity of floods, but Pakistan has not been able to build adequate number of water reservoirs for want of national consensus and resources; while deforestation has drastically reduced its area under forests from meagre four per cent to scanty two per cent.

Being a highly indebted developing country, Pakistan does not possess the resources to safeguard its citizens from such an eventuality all alone. Since the global response to mitigating the sufferings of 2010 and 2011 flood affectees in Pakistan has been dismal, this brings to the fore the need for devising a just mechanism to provide assistance to nations that are hit by disasters triggered by climate change.

The forthcoming Paris COP21 is all about commitments to cuts in emissions. The agenda and scope of 195-nation moot contains many elements which are of particular importance to Pakistan. In view of this forum’s importance, presidents and prime ministers of many countries, with technical, legal and diplomatic aides in tow, participate in COP moots. However, that is not the case with Pakistan though it has been participating forcefully in the past. Currently, the country is without any minister for environment as this cabinet slot remains vacant following Mushahidullah’s forced resignation.

In the framework of existing and evolving mechanism of adaptation to climate change, international climate finance, technology transfer and Warsaw mechanism of loss damage, Pakistan’s exposure to climate threats needs to be convincingly presented. The global community needs to understand that Pakistan, like other developing countries, has to ensure that its future development does not, in any way, become a hostage to emission limitations.

Unfortunately, except half-baked human resource, presently Pakistan does not have other resources necessary to tackle all or even some of the climate-induced eventualities that face this country. However, the country has made a beginning by establishing a Climate Technology Centre and Network. Furthermore, it is also one of the few countries which have the ‘Initial Communication Process’ in place.

Hoping to establish its climate vulnerability on the global stage, Pakistan is expected to make its declaration of intent and also highlight voluntary measures that it has taken towards mitigation, adaptation, institutional-building and knowledge-management.

Naturally, it looks forward to get allocations from the GCF to assist it in taking adaptation measures for tackling a problem of not its making. However, if Pakistan is not adequately and forcefully represented at the COP21, it may not be able to present its case convincingly and get GCF pie commensurate to the threat that it faces from emissions by other countries.

Pakistan plans to use GCF assistance for enhancing the capacity of its Ministry of Climate Change, and kick-start low-emission and climate resilient initiatives, including for renewable energy. It has formulated a development policy vision 2025, and has also taken many measures to voluntarily cut GHG emissions despite being a negligible emitter. Amongst these measures, noteworthy are: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s voluntary commitment to target zero carbon economic growth through afforestation and clean hydro-energy besides Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park at Bahawalpur (Punjab), with 100MW already installed and 900MW in the pipeline.

However, there is now growing realisation in the country that due to the gravity of climate-induced threats, post-18^th constitutional amendment and devolution of the environment sector to the provinces, matters relating to environment and climate change need to be addressed by the federal government at the highest level.