President Barack Obama finally succumbed to the pressure from his military commanders, Republicans and some national security experts to keep US forces for a longer time than he had planned in faraway Afghanistan.

The pressure was already there due to the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, but it became a matter of urgency when the Taliban in a swift blitz on September 28 captured the provincial capital, Kunduz, the sixth biggest city in the country with a population of 300,000. In fact, there were reports that the Obama administration was already reviewing its troops’ withdrawal plan on the suggestion of the Pentagon while General John Campbell, the US military commander in Afghanistan, had hinted at making adjustments to it in view of the alarming ground situation. However, the resurgent Taliban by capturing Kunduz forced President Obama’s hand to make a quick decision to slow down the pullout of the remaining American soldiers.

It was obvious the Taliban’s aggressive intentions had prompted the US and its allies to renew their commitment to stand by the beleaguered ‘unity’ government of President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Dr Abdullah.

The new Obama plan envisaged maintaining a force of 9,800 in Afghanistan through most of 2016 instead of reducing the troops’ strength to 1,000 based at the huge US embassy in Kabul by the time Obama left office in January 2017. Some of the Nato member countries are going to follow suit. The US troops would now drawdown to 5,500 starting sometime in 2017 and would be deployed at Kabul, Bagram, Kandahar and Jalalabad.

It was a reversal of policy for Obama, who was supposed to be an anti-war president and had pledged to bring all US troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan. He managed to do so in the case of Iraq, but his plans for Afghanistan have gone awry. He had reluctantly ordered a military surge in late 2009 by sending 33,000 troops to Afghanistan in a bid to turn the momentum in the war against the Taliban, but it didn’t work.

Though President Obama described the latest adjustment in his troops’ pullout plan as "modest and meaningful", it effectively meant prolonging the 14-year old Afghan war, already the longest in US history. The task of pulling out the US troops from Afghanistan has been effectively handed over to Obama’s successor. If a Republican president is elected, the war could be further prolonged because the Republicans have been critical of Obama for devising a premature troops’ withdrawal plan that emboldened the Taliban.

The Obama administration’s not so unexpected move to maintain its troops’ level for sometime is primarily aimed at helping the Afghan forces to keep the Taliban and the more radical Islamic State group at bay. The Afghan government was relieved as it had been pleading for such a decision. However, the relatively small number of US and Nato soldiers totalling 14,000 cannot be expected to defeat the Taliban when 150,000 foreign forces present in Afghanistan prior to 2014 couldn’t achieve this objective.

In fact, the task is becoming difficult by each passing day. In a change of tactics, Taliban made a push to capture territory in recent months, overrunning a number of districts and culminating in the fall of Kunduz. According to reports, Taliban now control 37 districts out of 385 and are contesting another 35. Post-Kunduz, Taliban seized 15 districts, though the Afghan security forces managed to retake some of them.

The fall of Kunduz shocked the Afghan nation and caused a drop in trust in the government as demands were made for President Ghani and CEO Abdullah to resign. That the Afghan people were fast losing hope in the future was illustrated by the reports that more than 70,000 mostly educated and better-off Afghans, second in number after the Syrians, have left to attempt illegal and dangerous crossing into Europe. The exodus is expected to rise as the security further unravels and the destination for the fleeing Afghans would not only be Europe but also neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan which is already hosting three million Afghan refugees.

In Obama’s words, the security situation in Afghanistan is fragile and the Afghan security forced didn’t perform to the expectations they needed to do. There was a dramatic increase in Taliban attacks post-2014 when most US-led Nato troops withdrew and the security transition to the Afghan forces was completed. It resulted in record increase in the casualties suffered by the Afghan forces and the highest civilian death toll todate.

An assessment made by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) noted that Taliban insurgency had spread through more of Afghanistan than at any point since 2001 when the US forces invaded the Taliban-ruled country to destroy al-Qaeda and oust the Taliban regime to avenge the 9/11 attacks. The report said UNAMA had evacuated four of its 13 provincial offices by early September due to security concerns. It added that the UN security officials rated the threat level in about half of the administrative districts in Afghanistan as either "high" or "extreme," more than at any time since December 2001 when the Taliban lost power.

The UN assessment, compiled in early September before the fall of Kunduz, is at odds with that of the US military commander in Afghanistan, General John Campbell, who in his testimony to the US Congress gave a more positive outlook regarding the security situation in the country. Though Taliban lost control of Kunduz city as it wasn’t their intention in the first place because their major aim was to seize heavy weapons and money and secure release of their prisoners, they followed it up with attacks on several district headquarters and even made assaults on the provincial capitals Ghazni, Maimana and Lashkargah. The attacks were mostly carried out in northern Afghanistan, populated largely by non-Pashtun ethnic groups such as the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmen and Hazaras who have traditionally been opposed to the predominantly Pashtun Taliban.

However, the growing Taliban strength in the north reinforced the view that non-Pashtuns too were joining Taliban ranks.

Though Taliban reacted angrily to the US move to prolong its military presence in Afghanistan by remarking that the withdrawal of foreign forces was in Taliban hands, they were also prompted by circumstances to express their willingness to hold peace talks provided some of their demands, primarily the complete pullout of US troops, were accepted.

Mindful of the Taliban demand, Obama sent them a message that the only way they could achieve this goal is to agree to a settlement with the Afghan government. It meant the Obama administration hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a negotiated solution involving the Taliban to end the Afghan conflict. This is despite the recent fiery statements made by President Ashraf Ghani following three devastating bombing in Kabul in one day not to ask Pakistan again to facilitate peace talks between his ‘unity’ government and the Taliban.

The peace talks are unlikely to resume unless Islamabad and Kabul are able to overcome their perennial distrust. Or this can happen if Obama is able to convince Ashraf Ghani to calm down and ask Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in his ongoing visit to the US to help move the peace process forward by persuading the Taliban to sit down with the Afghan government officials -- to talk peace again after having done it once in Murree on July 7.