Come 2016, Pakistan’s political landscape will welcome the latest, high-profile entrant to the field. Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, former chief justice of Pakistan, has all but announced he is launching a political career once the two-year moratorium after his retirement expires in December 2015.

The principal claim to fame of Iftikhar -- "Chief" to his supporters -- is his defiance of the then powerful military dictator General Pervez Musharraf on an order to relinquish charge. He was forcibly removed twice and twice restored, through a by-now well documented show of activist resistance built on the edifice of a bar-and-bench field campaign. It has passed into lore for being instrumental in overthrowing the Musharrafian order and facilitating a transition to democratic rule after nine years of defacto military rule.

The Chaudhry court

Chaudhry is also known as presiding over perhaps Pakistan’s most potent period of judicial activism. His penchant to invoke suo moto provisions and a finger-waving, talk-down bench vocalisation of court proceedings also ensured he remained a star of the media and a friend of the opposition parties seeking to hurt the harried government of PPP.

Now Chaudhry is apparently shaking off his post-retirement absence - albeit thanks to his inability to stay quiet he has never quite spent this period in obscurity - to pave the way for launch of a political party of his own. What will he do? How will he fare? What are his prospects? And what does it mean for the rest of us?

The answers lie partially ensconced in his temperament and partially shrouded in the volatile political history and its dictates.

 The Lazarus effect

From an ordinary voter’s perspective, it is difficult to ignore Chaudhry or to laugh him away. He has a strong personality and is a blunt-talking populist who has carved up some impressive credentials with high-octane bouts of challenging the powerful. While in office, he did what no other judge was able to do: taking on both the military and the key political forces, all while keeping the entire bench united behind him. He was able to successfully politicise his removal by a uniformed Musharraf and launched a successful populist campaign to restoration in office and then for a second time defying Musharraf’s ultimately aborted state of emergency and maneuvering a split between key political forces (PPP and PML-N and their allies) to force a second restoration.

This was a Lazarus performance that he then converted into an aggressive judicial activism that saw the judiciary become so powerful that even the military and political forces jointly feared.

 Chief, kitnay jaanisar?

The law, ethics and propriety of being a killer of political and military giants aside, these ‘feats’ are perceived by the public as acts of potency that fire the imaginations of sections of Pakistan’s manipulated, disempowered sections of society disillusioned by Pakistan’s power politics. For as long as he was in office, Chaudhry was the most popular personality of Pakistan.

This was reflected in several polls conducted and reported.

It is the memory of this public adulation, penchant for playing to the gallery and an undisguised joy in being a populist that shaped his decision to launch a political party and a political career. But he forgets, perhaps, the need for a strong constituency. The once strong following within the legal fraternity that drove on the slogan "Chief Tere Jaanisar, Beshumar Beshumar" now only manages "Chief Tere Jaanisar, Dau Char Dau Char" in bar rooms.

Chaudhry’s prospects decidedly look poor. Pakistan’s pluralistic polity has historically lent itself to strong personalities rather than ideologies championed by strong political parties. The logistics of the political ambitions to lead Pakistan from the office of the prime minister are phenomenally prohibitive as Imran Khan is learning, especially when you espouse politics of exclusion. Pakistan is a multi-party parliamentary democracy with a bicameral parliament. National political history shows how difficult it is to even make it to parliament let alone rule it.

 A Darwinian route

Consider: the Election Commission of Pakistan at the time of the last general election in May 2013 announced a list of 216 political parties registered with it that were eligible to seek votes. Only 13 of these parties managed to get at least one candidate elected to National Assembly. Six of these have less than 10 MNAs each (PML-F, PMAP, JI, NPP, ANP, PML-Q, PML-Z, PML-A), four have between 10 and 50 (PPP, PTI, MQM and JUI-F) and only one more than 50 (PML-N).

In the ensuing elections to Senate in May 2015, a total of 13 parties were able to get at least one of their candidates represented in the upper house. Only two of these have over 10 seats (PPP and PML-N). Four have between 5 and 10 seats (PTI, MQM, ANP and JUI-F). Seven have less than 5 (PML-Q, NP, PMAP, BNP, BNP-A, PML-F, JUI-F and JI). The rest (10 senators) are independents.

In all only 16 of 216 political parties in Pakistan are represented in parliament. Only five (PML-N, PPP, PTI, MQM and JUI-F) of these 15 have more than 10 seats in at least one of the two bicameral houses. And only two (PML-N and PPP) have at least 10 seats in both houses.

 Alternative career

What can Chaudhry’s proposed party do to make it big and make its leader also the country’s leader? The National Assembly has 342 seats. To form a government, a party, or a coalition of parties, needs to demonstrate a simple majority of 172. So, to become prime minister of Pakistan, one needs the votes of at least 172 votes in the National Assembly. How will Chaudhry’s party get 172 seats if even PTI has failed to do so? The best Chaudhry’s party can do is send him to the National Assembly as a lone star, or maybe along with a few black-coats.

What about a career in the Senate? One needs 24 votes from Sindh Assembly MPs to become a senator from Sindh, 53 from Punjab Assembly MPs to become a senator from Punjab, 17 votes from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly MPs to become a senator from KP and 9 votes from Balochistan Assembly MPs to become a senator from Balochistan. How can Chaudhry’s party conjure up these electoral numbers to be even a solitary senator?

The best that Chaudhry can theoretically do is join one of the five parties with more than 10 seats in parliament. Or one of the two kingmakers (PML-N and PPP) who appointed their leaders prime ministers in eight of the last 10 elections held. And why exactly would they fix something that isn’t broken?

The court of public opinion is not quite the same as a court of law, my lord. Permanent retirement would be a much more relaxing career option in this instance.