On the eve of every Eid, Taliban supreme leader Mulla Mohammad Omar issues a message of felicitation to the Afghan people and then shares his thoughts on the situation in Afghanistan.

His message is eagerly awaited by all those who follow happenings in Afghanistan as it is virtually a Taliban policy statement on a host of issues. It sometimes provides a hint of what to expect from the Taliban in future and gives a glimpse into the thinking of the reclusive founder of the Taliban movement.

This Eidul Fitr was different though as there was a sense of urgency with regard to Mulla Omar’s stance on the landmark Taliban-Afghan government peace talks that had taken place in Murree on July 7 about 10 days before Eid. His statement had assumed importance in view of the reports about differences in Taliban ranks on holding talks with the Afghan government. Being the Amirul Momineen (commander of the faithful) of the Taliban, his is the last word as far as his followers are concerned. Also, his hold over the Taliban has meant keeping his movement intact in the most trying times after the collapse of his regime following the US invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001.

When his Eid message termed the ongoing peace talks with the Afghan government as legitimate and endorsed the initiative, it brought a sigh of relief to the pro-talks camp among the Taliban. Islamabad too was pleased as it had played a key role in persuading the Taliban leadership based in Pakistan to agree to talk to the unity government of President Dr Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Dr Abdullah. This wasn’t something easy because the Taliban had to give up their stated position not to recognise and talk to the Afghan government until the complete withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan.

Though there are still many sceptics among the Taliban, particularly their military commanders and fighters, who aren’t convinced that the Eid message really came from Mulla Omar, it is also a fact that the Taliban supreme leader continues to inspire the Taliban rank and file despite his long absence from public life. His whereabouts remain unknown and his fate is uncertain, but everyone has to presume he is alive as long as there is no evidence of his death.

If he is no more, one has to admit that the Taliban leadership has done a remarkable job by assuring the world that he is alive and leading his men in the battle against the US-led Nato forces and the Afghan government.

Mulla Omar’s inaccessibility to Taliban military commanders and fighters is all the more glaring considering the fact that his doors were always open for even ordinary Taliban members when he was ruling Afghanistan from 1996-2001. Though the Taliban realise that Mulla Omar has to stay underground and remain inaccessible due to the $10 million US bounty on his head and the massive manhunt for him these past years, many among them would like to be shown evidence that he is alive.

A video-tape is out of question as Mulla Omar never allowed himself to be photographed due to his religious beliefs, but the Taliban leadership could record his voice and send out the audio-tape as a proof of life to help remove the misgivings concerning his fate. In fact, Taliban sources claim his audio-tapes were available until some years ago and everyone agreed at the time that Mulla Omar was alive.

Questions began to be asked when the audio messages stopped coming, triggering a debate about his fate.

The Taliban movement cannot be described as leaderless unless it is established beyond doubt that Mulla Omar has died. His presence is essential to prevent the disintegration of the movement. Already, the mere suggestion that he may be dead has created strife in Taliban ranks and raised questions about the movement’s future. Mulla Omar’s deputy Akhtar Mohammad Anwar has managed until now to run the Taliban movement with help from the Rahbari Shura (Leadership Council), but he is a divisive figure lacking the supreme leader’s stature and authority.

The issue of peace talks has caused division in Taliban ranks into factions supporting and opposing the peace talks and only someone of Mulla Omar’s stature could overcome the rift. His Eid message endorsing the peace talks was meant to achieve this objective, but it seems it managed to do so partially.

Almost a similar crisis is being faced by al-Qaeda, which lost its founder and financier Osama bin Laden in May 2011 when helicopter-borne US Special Forces raided his compound in Abbottabad and killed him along with one of his sons and two Pakistani brothers protecting him. Though his long-time deputy Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri quickly replaced him as the al-Qaeda head, he lacks bin Laden’s stature and appeal. Being a most wanted man, he cannot interact with al-Qaeda members and is unable to provide resources and manpower to conduct attacks.

The death and capture of known al-Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan, Pakistan and in certain Arab countries has depleted the group’s strength and restricted the role of Zawahiri in the Af-Pak region and the Middle East. Of late, al-Qaeda has had to contend with the challenge posed by the fast-rising Islamic State group. Though the Egypt-born Zawahiri has been trying to stay afloat and remain relevant to the fast-changing situation in certain Islamic countries through his frequent statements, it is now widely known that the Islamic State is a far bigger player compared to al-Qaeda in most of the conflict zones around the Islamic world.

A comparison between al-Qaeda and the Islamic State shows how the latter has grown in strength and influence under the leadership of its ‘caliph’ Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who is able to operate in parts of both Iraq and Syria in territory captured by his men, interact with his commanders and oversee an administrative set-up. His physical presence in areas controlled by the Islamic State seems to have inspired his fighters and put him in an advantageous position compared to Zawahiri, who has to struggle to stay alive and whose al-Qaeda doesn’t control any territory.

This is the reason a number of militant groups in Asia and Africa formerly aligned to al-Qaeda have gradually shifted allegiance to the Islamic State and recognised Baghdadi as their leader. Though these groups haven’t generally criticised al-Qaeda and Zawahiri, they have aligned with the bigger and stronger Islamic State in a bid to bolster their own strength and room for manoeuvrability. They know that al-Qaeda doesn’t stand much chance of attaining any further strength because its head Zawahiri is invisible and inaccessible. Also, al-Qaeda has neither an address nor a ‘state’ and ‘capital’ like the Islamic State with its well-defined territory and well-known capital, Raqa.

The Taliban movement is different in the sense that it doesn’t have any global ambitions like al-Qaeda and Islamic State and is content to restrict its activities to Afghanistan. However, its fortunes are tied to Mulla Omar as was the case of al-Qaeda that began to lose strength with the death of bin Laden.