"After the execution of death sentence of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, General Ziaul Haq established the MQM to counter Sindhi nationalists," revealed former Chief of Pakistan Army General retired Mirza Aslam Baig during an interview given to Saleem Safi on Geo in September 2009.

Talking about Hyderabad Pucca Qila operation in 1990, former governor Punjab of PPP, Tariq Rahim, disclosed to famous author, Christina Lamb, in an interview for her book, Waiting for Allah: Banazir Bhutto and Pakistan that "We have tapes of Azeem Ahmed Tariq and Imran Farooq from the MQM meeting an army commander in Hyderabad before the incident, showing there was total connivance. We know too that the curfew was broken with the aid of local commander and army trucks were used to transport weapons."

On Aug 6, 1992, US foreign broadcast information service in Pakistan sent a cable quoting an article of Ayaz Amir "A fresh twist to a tangled tale" via a reference number JPRS-NEA-92-099. The excerpt of the cable was, "The incident that stands out in this connection, and which really stirred feelings within the army against the MQM, was the abduction and reported torture in June last year of an army o?icer and some soldiers in plain clothes while they were on duty in Landhi (at a time when clashes were taking place between the MQM dissidents and activists loyal to the MQM proper). The MQM MNA, who reportedly supervised this action, became the special object of the army’s ire."

Famous author, Hassan Abbas, in his book, Pakistan’s Drift into Extremism wrote on page 147 that ISI managed to create a split within the MQM itself and Lieutenant Colonel Obaidullah of the ISI was the brain behind this. He wrote, "the perpetrators of the attempt were: Afaq Ahmed, Aamir Khan, and Badar Iqbal". "He (Lt. Col. Obaidullah) met with Lieutenant General Asad Durrani, the then new Director General of ISI and recommended to him that these young men (Afaq Ahmed, Aamir Khan and Badar Iqbal) to be taken under protection by the ISI and helped to organised their forces, as they were the only ones with the courage and capacity to break the terror of the MQM. In his view, the MQM could be brought to heel only by terrorising the terrorists," Abbas explained.

During Pervez Musharraf’s military regime, MQM flexed its muscles and became part of the federal and provincial government. Despite the allegations of a terrorist organisation, MQM enjoyed and received full support from former chief of Pakistan army. The then Karachi nazim of MQM, Mustafa Kamal, was considered as the blue-eyed boy of former army chief.

A couple of weeks ago on March 11, a heavy contingent of Sindh Rangers raided the MQM headquarters Nine Zero at Azizabad. A convict in Geo reporter Wali Khan Baber’s murder case, Faisal Mota, along with many others, was taken into custody.

One could see that federal and provincial players were on board when the raid was carried out at Nine Zero after watching their statements that were released after the development.

Talking to TNS, seasoned journalist and former editor of Daily Dawn, Abbas Nasir explains, "there were a host of grievances of the Urdu-speaking community of urban Sindh, which led to the rise of the MQM but surely the physical insecurity, after a couple of violent mass murder incidents where dozens of their members were killed, was the final trigger. That’s why perhaps the party has seen it as essential to pack a punch, despite enjoying mass support. The irony is that this punch is said to have been used for opponents and internal dissent equally".

"When the MQM’s strong-arm capability was seen as serving the interests of the so-called establishment, it was given a free hand and when its conduct was seen as being hostile to the establishment’s interests, attempts were made to cut it down to size," says Nasir while analysing the recent developments.

"This operation is being conducted against criminals, no matter what their affiliation is; there is zero-tolerance for criminality," says a high-ranking intelligence officer.

One of the former top officials of the premier intelligence agency, who has a vast experience of handling political crises believes, "Karachi operation is being supervised by Director General Inter Service Intelligence, Lt. Gen. Rizwan Akhtar. He has served in Karachi as DG Sindh Rangers having complete understanding of metropolis’ affairs and must be maintaining direct communication with the Sindh Rangers."

Is there any plan to curtail MQM? "I don’t think they (establishment) will commit this mistake which their predecessors did; this establishment looks reasonable to us and we do not believe that it will act which is not its mandate. If it is a wish of two three individuals, we will not term it as a collective decision. Pakistan has learned a lot from its past; such actions always benefited the MQM. Sensibility and reasoning shall prevail," says Dr. Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, an MNA of MQM.

"The fingerprints of intelligence agencies were all over the Saulat Mirza ‘interview’. If there was any doubt about this, it disappeared with the speed the Balochistan government dissolved the ‘inquiry committee’ into the confession recording," Nasir explains.

"This video has set a precedent and now every convict will ask for the option of addressing the nation before going to the gallows," says a former high-level intelligence official.

The raids and video have started a debate on the minus one formula. "In the past, there were such attempts in Pakistan but they never met their fate, will it last this time," asks Siddiqui.

A few weeks ago, during an interview at a news channel, Altaf Hussain made a grave statement, "after me, party will split into two to three factions."

Also read: The London connection

A political commentator who does not want to be named says, "there are splits within the MQM, old vs new leadership, privileged vs less privileged, and Biharis vs Non-Biharis. The power-base might shift to Dubai because the UK-based leadership has not visited Pakistan since decades, and therefore, lacks contacts. On the other hand, Dubai guys enjoy a higher ground control in Karachi,"says the political commentator.

Unlike before, Karachiites did not witness much mayhem on the raid at MQM’s headquarters. Does it mean the party has outlived its utility for power? "I have no means of saying what role is visualised for the party or whether it has outlived its utility for the establishment. What I can say is a concerted attempt is underway to try and defang it and to limit its influence in the national politics by trying to carve out islands of support for other parties, including the PTI in the MQM heartland," Nasir believes.

A former intelligence figure who has experience of supervising high-level espionage operations thinks the debate on the media about the Nine Zero raid was a turning point in the Karachi operation. The entire situation could have been dealt in a much better way.

"We were conducting intelligence-based targeted operations across the board, including against the TTP, Lyari gangsters, political, religious and banned outfits. The issue never figured in the media in such a way but the press talk "at the spot" (Nine Zero) stirred political debate on the entire process," says a little disappointed top level intelligence source.

History shows that such practices were carried out during the 1990s operation. In 2009, while appearing on a television programme, the then Corps Commander Karachi, retd Lt. Gen Naseer Akhtar along with the then DG Intelligence Bureau retd Brig Imtiaz, gave a clean chit to MQM regarding the Jinahpur map issue. At that time, a similar discussion was started and the operation, which was meant to weed out criminals, became politicised. To avoid such hiccups to bring back normalcy in the metropolis, instead of producing evidence on television screens, it should be produced before the court of law.