In a preposterous proposition, the Chairman of Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has suggested the government to freeze the country’s annual development programme for five years and swerve development funds for constructing major water reservoirs on war footing. IRSA chairman Raqib Khan, belabouring the stale argument, claimed that more than 30 MAF of water was going down to the sea. Only few days later, chairman of the standing committee of Senate on science and technology has sent a distress call to the prime minister imploring him to take urgent measures to stop sea intrusion that may eventually submerge Thatta, Badin and Karachi. The later dispatch invalidates basic premise of the IRSA chairman’s letter.

Alarming scarcity of water resources in Pakistan is an irrefutable reality as the storage capacity of three major reservoirs has depleted by 27 per cent. The issue merits urgent remedial measures. However, any shoddily devised prescription can rather aggravate the disease. Water is a highly volatile issue and a source of persistent disgruntlement among federating units, specially Sindh and Punjab. It entails deeper political mistrust, institutional distortions, operational perversions and strategic ineptness spawned over decades.

Conflict between upper and lower riparian on water streams is not peculiar to Pakistan. Several shared streams in the world are source of acrimonies among countries and subnational units.

In Pakistan, economic and social web is shaped by agriculture, which has been the engine of national economy and food security. Rural areas directly and urban areas indirectly depend on agro-based economy. This explains the reason for land and water being lynchpins of society and politics in Pakistan. Landed aristocracy has been yanking this country since its birth. Urban capitalist leadership in politics and market is rather an infant phenomenon. Against this backdrop, water distribution had always been an incendiary matter. Institution like IRSA ought to understand the political sensitivities and technical realities before extending such sweeping and impractical recommendations.

The premise for new storages is often based on a distorted and misleading claim that more than 30 MAF water is being wasted to sea that could be stored. Availability of surplus flows of 22 MAF, as claimed in the aforementioned letter, is actually an eye wash that has been propagated by WAPDA, IRSA and political leadership from Punjab. In fact this so called surplus is already committed for various uses. There are certain canals under construction for which allocations has already been earmarked.

Total allocations for Kacchi canal, Reini canal, Pat Feeder extension, Gomal Zam dam, additional storage of Mangla Dam and leaching requirement under LBOD project are 8.9 MAF. Agreed upon Indian uses on Western rivers are 2 MAF and eastern rivers’ inflows that India can eventually divert are 6.23 MAF. From 1976-77 to 2003-04 average uses in Kharif remained 11.24 MAF less than the allocation under water accord. This need to be adjusted from the surplus flows. Sum of all these committed flows simply wipe out the much trumpeted surplus flow of 22 MAF. All this data is part of WAPDA documents and can’t be denied. IRSA chairman simply skirted these figures while recommending new storage reservoir by devouring five years development allocations.

Even if average 22 MAF water is construed to be surplus, engineering principles nullify making it basis for new storages. The surplus 22 MAF depicts average annual flow and is not commensurate with quantum of flows for most of the years. During 13 years from 2000-01 to 2012-13 flows at Kotri crossed 10 MAF in only 6 years i.e. less than half of the years. Average surplus of last 15 years remained only 3.32 MAF. Whereas the average surplus between 1999 and 2009 remained merely 0.3 MAF. It was the huge flow of 2010 that jacked up the averages of past 15 years. Hence average surplus flow has remained highly erratic and unreliable to propose any dam.

If a new storage is constructed, whole irrigation network is sprawled and uses of water are established, where from IRSA would arrange water during low flow years? Standards of engineering and hydrology require reliability of water flows for 80 per cent of years to justify a new reservoir. Applying simple arithmetic on WAPDA’s own data negates the claim of IRSA chairman as water for new storages is simply not available.

No irrigation and dam expert on earth would accept occasional excessive flows to propose a large on-stream dam. So far extremely high flows like 2010 floods are concerned, no dam would have been able to absorb deluge of this magnitude. In fact dam safety was a major source of consternation during such catastrophic floods.

Also read: Water solutions

A misperception has been manufactured that 35 MAF water is flowing into sea whereas Sindh needs only 8 MAF for its ecological balance in delta. What is dexterously masked under averages is the fact that between 1999-2000 and 2010-11 there were five years when flows below Kotri were not even 5 MAF. In year 2000-2001 and 2004-05 not even one MAF water crossed the gates of Kotri barrage. No one can imagine miseries of people living on both sides of Indus spread over 100 kms between Kotri barrage and sea during such lean years. What is mysterious, if 35 MAF water is really being wasted to sea why ecology of delta is on continued degradation. This simple logic corroborates the claim that Indus delta needs much more than current flows for its ecological sustenance.

More than two million acres of land in coastal districts of Sindh have been invaded by sea. Only one month ago, experts informed a Senate Standing Committee on Science and Technology that if urgent remedies were not employed, Thatta and Badin will submerge by 2050 and Karachi by 2060. This ominous warning came from experts of National Institute of Oceanography. The NIO official mentioned that for 300 days in a year, water did not flow to sea, a causative factor in sea intrusion. This environmental catastrophe is completely obscured by illusory averages of excess flow to sea.

Nevertheless rapidly dwindling reservoir capacity of three major dams is a haunting challenge. Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma have lost their storage capacity by 27 per cent due to siltation. Part of compensation comes from raising Mangla Dam and enhancing its reservoir from originally designed 5.34 to 7.16 MAF.

The other major remedial project is Bhasha dam which is lying in the intensive care unit of WAPDA for several years. The dam has been cleared by Council of Common Interest and ECNEC. There are copious reasons to implement the project forthwith. The project was inaugurated by Gen Musharraf in 2006; however the water bureaucracy has dumped the project in cold storage for almost a decade now.

Protagonists of large dams obstinately latch on to a highly controversial Kalabagh dam (KBD). It is sheer obsession with KBD that has crucified all other storage options. Amid prevalent stalemate on KBD, Bhasha is the most suitable option. If the deliberate dabbling with this project is not shunned, no one but the water bureaucracy will be responsible for ensuing parlous water scenario in the country.

Unscrupulous water bureaucracy has fabricated an argument that dams are the only solution to water crisis. Capricious climatic pattern demands multifarious solutions to confront the looming risk of water crisis. Principles of water management mark conservation as the foremost solution. Annual seepage losses in the emaciated irrigation infrastructure are close to a whopping 40 MAF. Considering half of it necessary to sustain ecological arteries, the remaining quantity is more than the total current storage available in the country and more than three Kalabagh dams. Lining of distributaries, minors and water courses along with improving on-farm practices e.g. land leveling, avoiding water guzzling crops and judicious application of water can conserve substantial quantities of water to offset the current deficit. Non-engineering solutions can provide ample relief and are imperative to stymie acrimonious conflict among federating units.