That Robin Rafel took classified papers home is one thing but why she was targeted to begin with is the real question
The investigation of a long-time fixture in official Washington generally inspires a variety of reactions, including explosive gossip, conjecture and, in many cases, shadenfreude.
When the individual in the crosshairs is a polarising figure in the powder keg that is India-Pakistan relations, the news will land like a tossed hand grenade with the pin out.
So it should come as no surprise that when word leaked out that the State Department’s Robin Raphel is being investigated by the FBI -- a counterintelligence investigation, no less -- many policy gurus and South Asia experts both here and abroad had something to say.
Despite the sensational headlines, most think-tank and policy experts in Washington were sympathetic towards Ms Raphel, which is not surprising given her impressive career that spans over forty years. She got her start as a CIA analyst, later joining the Foreign Service. She had short-term assignments in Tunisia and India, but her true calling was Pakistan.
As the first assistant secretary of State for South Asian affairs she pleaded Pakistan’s case aggressively, convincing the Clinton administration to block any move -- earlier initiated by the Bush administration -- to declare Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism while persuading the US government to declare Kashmir as a disputed issue between India and Pakistan.
"The step was regarded as anti-India or pro-Pakistan; but it was really her foresightedness -- a way of preventing any possible terrorism emanating from the issue," said a South Asia expert who requested not to be named. During her tenure at the State Department as US representative in India, she was alleged to have had a hand in the creation of All Parties Hurriyat Conference.
She retired from the diplomatic corps in 2005. Even during her brief retirement, she kept her hand in South Asian affairs as a lobbyist at Cassidy and Associates, representing Pakistan. Not long after, her expertise in the complex relationship between Pakistan, India and Afghanistan provided her another opportunity to work at the State Department as a member of the late Ambassador Richard Holbrooke’s team. She stepped up to oversee development aid and civilian assistance to Pakistan.
Information about the investigation is slowly trickling out, and has triggered intense aggravated speculation about a possible Pakistan link. Raphel is alleged to have taken classified documents home, a surprising lapse in judgement for someone with, one of the highest, Top Secret clearance and so many years of working in official circles.
In some ways, Raphel’s timing could not have been worse. Washington DC post-Edward Snowden is a city with a zero tolerance policy towards loose handling of classified material. Resultantly, Raphel’s much-coveted security clearance has been withdrawn. This, otherwise, is a standard modus operandi to take away any and all official credentials and perks if a probe is initiated against any subject.
Some have even started speculating that her case could resemble a ten year old espionage scandal where a department of defense staffer, Lawrence Franklin, pled guilty to passing on classified information pertaining to US deliberations on foreign policy regarding Iran to Israel. The active investigation in that case took over a year. He was given a reduced sentence of ten months house arrest.
The released reports indicate that there have been no known arrests so far, and according to Raphel’s lawyer she’s cooperating with the investigation. "Ambassador Raphel has not been told that she is the target of an investigation. She hasn’t been told what this investigation is about, if anything," her lawyer told the media. State department and other officials have acknowledged the on going investigation but distanced themselves by not commenting on the reasons or its supposed reaction.
Her colleagues are vouching for her integrity and suggesting that in her eagerness, she probably got careless and brought classified documents to her house. This act itself is a serious and perhaps criminal negligence. The FBI is trying to determine why she brought home classified information and whether she passed it to a foreign government, whether she did so deliberately and if a pattern of behaviour could be established.
Not surprisingly, the Indian media, which is not exactly known for its understatement, is excited over the story. India has been suspicious of her motives for quite some time, questioning her impartiality starting with her daring view on Kashmir. She has been given a number of unflattering nicknames, from Lady Taliban to the Godmother of the Hurriyat Conference.
Indian coverage is rife with rumours; one theory is that a group of powerful Indian Americans had exposed Raphel, compelling the American security agencies to take action. The suppositions and conjecture grow more absurd with each passing day. Commentators strain to connect her case with that of Ghulam Nabi Fai’s. It’s even been suggested that it was Hamid Mir’s revelations to the Indian media that led to the Raphel probe, as if US law enforcement would be stirred to act because of the views of a Pakistani television anchor airing from Indian television.
Mir told the Indian media that Robin Raphel pressurised former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto to support the Taliban in Afghanistan. There weren’t any fact checks placed either. The Indian press was short of giving the Taliban fiasco a name: "Robin Raphel’s war," echoing the famous book and movie, "Charlie Wilson’s War," about the US confrontation with the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Since it’s an active federal prove involving a high ranked official, there are no further details provided on the case yet. The real question that still lingers is why she was targeted to begin with. In connection to this query, it’s been hinted that she might also have been suspected after someone tipped the FBI off; or her investigation was linked to some other bigger investigation. There’s also a possibility of a paper or money trail that ended up at her doorstep. She might, after months of such investigation, be found wholly innocent of any criminal wrongdoing, but come what may, it seems her high-flying, colourful diplomatic career is now over.