Last week, al-Qaeda chief, Ayman al-Zawahiri, announced through a video message the creation of a new branch of the organisation in the Indian subcontinent to "raise the flag of jihad" through Muslim lands "occupied" by the infidel. He appointed Umar Asim, a relatively less known militant with ties to the Pakistani terror groups and madrassa network, as the head of the new branch of al-Qaeda.

The organisation already has factional wings in Africa and in the Middle East with Yemen as its headquarter. The organisation, though weakened by the IS in Syria and Iraq, still has a strong network in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Zawahiri, in the video, said the new branch will rally Muslims in "Burma (Myanmar), Bangladesh, Assam, Gujarat, Ahmedabad, and Kashmir."

India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar have a Muslim population of over 350 million. There is also a history of Muslim rule in the region before the British took control of the region in the 19th century. Zawahiri said in the video that the region "was once part of the lands of the Muslims, until the enemy occupied it and fragmented it and split it."

The countries and areas he mentioned in his video also have a recent history of tension on sectarian and ethnic basis. In May this year, at least 11 Bengali Muslims were killed in Assam by tribesmen with tens of thousands Bengali Muslims still displaced. In Myanmar, which is not too far from Assam, Rohingya Muslims have been facing the wrath of majority Buddhists.

Kashmir has always been a flashpoint for local and foreign jihadis while hundreds of Muslims were killed in 2002 communal attacks in Gujarat, which is being seen as a move to depict Modi as an enemy of Islam as he was chief executive of Gujarat in 2002.

Analysts say that like any struggling international brand, Zawahiri also looks at India as an ‘opportunity’ for expansion. They say that ground realities may be favourable for expansion of extremism among Muslims in the region but the announcement is an effort to reclaim the mantle of global jihad from rival Islamic State (IS), which has successfully established a state within a few years of its establishment and attracted militants from across the world in its march across Syria and Iraq.

"This is, indeed, a desperate bid from Ayman al-Zawahiri to put al-Qaeda back in limelight and to resurrect his own position vis-à-vis Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who seems to be more charismatic than Zawahiri," says Sameer Patil, a national security expert at Gateway House, a think tank based in Mumbai, India. He says that overwhelming media coverage on IS enabled it to recruit more cadres and garner more money as compared to the al-Qaeda, which is now completely hemmed in Af-Pak region.

Patil thinks that al-Qaeda might not set up a base in India. "It will want to spawn a new generation of terrorists here, what is called as the ‘lone wolf’ -- the self-radicalised terrorists. So far, this phenomenon was restricted to the Western societies only," he says, adding, "There will always be some gullible youth who will fall prey to the terror propaganda and take up arms. There is also a danger of creating a new wave of sympathisers who get influenced by such provocative statements and who can easily connect to local issues, such as Assam violence and Gujarat riots. Having said that, a majority of Indian Muslims have, indeed, rejected these calls for violence."

He does not think the announcement will affect Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Muhammad activities in India, including the Kashmir Valley. "On the contrary, local operatives of these groups may leverage al-Qaeda’s announcement to their own advantage by melding local issues with calls for global jihad against the kafirs."

Others do not see the announcement as a mark of desperation or a perception that it is truly competing with IS in the region. "Al-Qaeda has been introducing more Pakistanis into its ranks, while its Arab leadership based in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been significantly eliminated by the US and Pakistani forces," says Arif Rafiq, an Adjunct Scholar with the Middle East Institute and expert on security issues in Pakistan. "Al-Qaeda isn’t losing much ground to IS in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Though its power has been diminished, al-Qaeda has several decades of ties to militants in the region."

The Pakistani establishment, he believes, has significantly reduced its support for militants targeting both India and Indian-held Kashmir, "So, there is perhaps a void that al-Qaeda can fill in Kashmir, where a generation has grown up under a highly militarised state and New Delhi’s heavy-handedness."

This is not the first attempt of al-Qaeda to create an offshoot focused on South Asia. Its previous efforts failed in 2011 when Ilyas Kashmiri, a senior operative of the organisation, was killed in an American drone strike. "Even now it would be very tough for them to establish an infrastructure in India," says Amir Rana, an Islamabad-based security expert and director of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies. "It may be able to establish it in some parts of the Indian side of Kashmir. In the past, it had failed to attract Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar."

Rana says that since Zawahiri has renewed his pledge of allegiance to Mullah Omar in his video, it indicates that al-Qaeda has challenged the caliphate of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. "It indicates that al-Qaeda will firmly stand beside its old allies, which will not only increase the operational strength of the Afghan Taliban but also prevent the latter’s erosion due to the IS effect."

It seems trouble among Pakistani Taliban ranks has already started. The Jamaatul Ahrar, newly established by some breakaway factions of TTP, is the recent example of it. "There is a lot of frustration among the ranks of TTP. The establishment of JA is one example of it. This group is more ambitious than the TTP and largely inspired by the successes of the IS," says Hasan Khan, an expert on TTP. "It is not easy for JA to go with al-Qaeda as its rival group (TTP) has strong nexus with al-Qaeda. JA has a strong nexus with sectarian terrorist networks and factions of the Punjabi Taliban and the various Jundallah groups in mainland Pakistan. So, it would remain strong."

IS has a distinct advantage over al-Qaeda when it comes to tap terror networks of Pakistan. "IS’ main slogan in based on Shia-Sunni sectarian divide. This slogan is very popular in our part of the world. On the other hand, al-Qaeda has never tried to exploit this issue," says Hafiz Tahir Ashrafi, head of Pakistan Ulema Council.

"IS has become more popular here. In a recent million march held in Karachi to condemn Gaza massacre, we saw the flags of IS while in the gathering of Tahirul Qadri we have seen flags of Hizbullah. It means both the organisations have a support base in Pakistan," Ashrafi says.

He believes the government of Pakistan and its institutions have little interest in tackling the issue. "We have heard that dead bodies of those killed in Syria and Iraq while fighting have come to Pakistan. But no institution even bothered to take action against the handlers or stop people going in the region," Ashrafi says.

"Takfiri thinking is getting popular in Pakistan. One more thing which is being ignored in Pakistan is Salafi jihadi organisations. We see them only in the context of Kashmiri jihad. We need to see them in the context of global jihad and need to see their links with organisations like al-Qaeda and IS," he concludes.