The recent announcement of al-Qaeda to establish a new branch of the group in the subcontinent is a serious development for not just India but also Pakistan.

It is the first time ever that a global terrorist group has expressed its intentions to focus on this area. Since its formation in 1989, the al-Qaeda, a fundamentally Arab group, has never made any attempt to stage attacks in India or beyond in Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Zawahiri, by taking the ‘jihad’ to these countries want us to believe that the group has a very strong network in Pakistan and Afghanistan, where it is still engaged in fighting, and while using it as a base, wants to grow beyond its current area of influence.

Most independent analysts, however, believe that al-Qaeda has almost been eliminated from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The most important aspect of al-Zawahiri’s announcement is that the new force would "crush the artificial borders" dividing Muslim populations in the region. This is a statement of extreme significance as well as concern for the countries of the region.

A closer look at the statement would reveal that it negates the very basis of the struggle for creation of Pakistan. According to al-Zawahiri, the new branch is meant to revive jihadist activity in a region that was once "part of the land of Muslims, until the ‘infidel enemy’ occupied it and fragmented it and split it." Thus, al-Zawahiri today considers, like most of the Islamist movements of the time in India, that the establishment of Pakistan was not the result of a genuine struggle by Muslim intelligentsia of India to have a homeland in the region.

Al-Qaeda’s aim to crush the ‘artificial borders’ in the subcontinent is of extreme concern for India and its leadership. Sambit Patra, a spokesman for the governing Bharatiya Janata Party, called the announcement by al-Qaeda "a matter of serious concern."

Both al-Qaeda and LeT were formed by their founders, Osama bin Laden and Hafiz Saeed, respectively, after getting motivated by the Palestinian professor-turned-jihadist, Abdullah Azzam. Keeping in view the common background of al-Qaeda and LeT, which has mostly been an India-focused militant organisation, it is possible that the al-Qaeda has also turned its focus on Indian sub-continent.

In the past, al-Qaeda leadership has been focusing on militancy in the Middle East and Africa and, to a lesser extent, in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The new entity in the subcontinent represents the network’s fifth official branch, adding to branches based in North Africa, East Africa, Yemen, and in Syria.

Afghanistan and Pakistan have served as bases for al-Qaeda leadership, staging militant and terrorist attacks. In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda was provided bases by the Afghan Taliban regime (1996-2001) and since then by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its forerunners in Pakistan after the ouster of the Afghan Taliban regime by the US-NATO forces in the wake of 9/11 terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda.

Irrespective of the claim by al-Qaeda that it has been fighting for the cause of suppressed Muslims across the globe, its focus has been the Middle East and the Arab World. Against this backdrop, the question is why al-Qaeda has suddenly changed its focus to the Indian subcontinent?

There could be various reasons for that. The most important reason in this regard seems to be the marginalising of al-Qaeda in the Middle East by the newly-emerged Islamic State. Moreover, it is important to note that al-Qaeda, despite staging attacks across the globe for many years has failed to capture territory. Whereas, the IS in a very short period has been able to capture vast swathes of territory in the Middle East. All these factors seem to have compelled al-Qaeda to focus on the Indian subcontinent.

The announcement is a shrewd move by al-Qaeda as it must have kept the strained relations between India and Pakistan, the two giants of the subcontinent, in mind. Al-Qaeda has constantly lost its leadership in drone attacks in FATA and its war has proved a war of attrition for the organisation. In this situation, the best option for the group to remain alive and relevant is to replenish its ranks and this could only be done by attracting non-Arabs, specifically Muslim youths from the Indian subcontinent. In this regard, al-Qaeda would also like to exploit the enraged sentiments among Muslims of the region due to atrocities committed by the Myanmar authorities.

But one thing should be clear. Al-Qaeda in the subcontinent poses a huge security challenge for both India and Pakistan. It remains to be seen whether both the countries cooperate to meet the challenge or get involved in a blame game.