If no major step is taken to end growing hostility and incidents of firing across the Line of Control (LoC) and the working boundary, it might endanger the 2003 ceasefire, which is known as the mother of all Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) so far.

It is reported that over 20, 000 people have been displaced and a number of them killed in the recent standoff. Several unprovoked statements emanating from the Indian leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief of Army Staff have worked to weaken the political resolve in Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government to sell the fruits of peace to the domestic audience.

In the coming weeks, a showdown between India and Pakistan is anticipated at the United Nations General Assembly’s annual session in New York. Long-standing and unresolved issues like Kashmir will be part of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s speech. He might raise human rights violations in the Indian held-Kashmir, too.

A couple of years ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggested the Congress led-government to "talk to Pakistan in Pakistan’s language". Therefore, a befitting reply is expected from India.

No one was expecting that the nascent bonhomie between the two neighbours would be so short-lived. Pakistan has a long list of grievances which were not addressed by the Indian leadership. Despite the best efforts, India is not willing to resume the stalled composite dialogue process with Pakistan.

Three prime ministers of Pakistan: Yousaf Raza Gilani, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, Muhammad Nawaz Sharif; and president: Asif Ali Zardari visited India during the last three years. Repeated requests were made to former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to visit Pakistan but he could not muster courage to take a grand political initiative.

It has invariably been evident that New Delhi is interested only to have improved trade relations but substantive progress on other issues, such as Kashmir, Siachen, etc., are not on its priority list. It always talks about terrorism allegedly fomenting in areas under the Pakistan control but hardly likes to talk about wishes of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, let alone jointly find a way leading to a final settlement of the Kashmir issue.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appointed former foreign secretary, Shehryar Khan, as back channel interlocutor on Kashmir with India. He had a few meetings with his counterpart, India’s ex-ambassador SK Lambah, to resume process where it was left after the tragic Mumbai attacks in late 2008. Pakistan wanted progress in tandem on all issues. But to no avail. Now, once again back channel diplomacy, which had brought India and Pakistan close to an agreement in 2007, is dead.

BJP has come up with the unprecedented aggressive policy over Kashmir. The United Nations Military Observer Group (UNMOGIP) stationed in New Delhi since January 1949 was asked to wrap up its mission as BJP considers the whole Kashmir as an integral part of India. Likewise, BJP made a political pledge in the national elections that it would clip whatever internal autonomy Jammu and Kashmir State had enjoyed so far.

Now BJP is bent upon winning the upcoming state assembly elections to install BJP’s chief minister, which is due in the next few months. The suspension of foreign secretary level talks is a clear message to Islamabad. Defence Minister Arun Jaitley categorically stated that Pakistan had to decide whether it wanted to talk to the Indian government or the separatists.

Dissidents have been persistently denied to run a non-violent political movement in Kashmir. Peaceful protesters were jailed and even bloggers and social media activists had to face hardships. Ironically, the international community that wholeheartedly supported the Arab Spring and civil liberties campaigns in the Middle East turned a blind eye towards Kashmir.

In 2008-2010, massive summer protests went through the streets of Srinagar wherein thousands of people participated. Neither India nor the international community paid due attention to these rallies. It is frustrating to see that the discourse revolving around the conflict interprets peace in Kashmir as if there is no political issue to be addressed.

The Indian army has played a key role too in pushing the government to take a hardline position. Since long, it has emerged as a key player in the decision-making process, especially regarding Kashmir and Pakistan. It is reported that in the recent past it has scuttled several political initiatives, such as over the Siachen issue.

India wants Pakistan to break all connections with the Kashmiri leaders and stop its support to them at all levels and let New Delhi settle the Kashmir issue within its constitutional framework.

In this context, Pakistan’s Kashmir policy is at the crossroads. The Most Favoured Nation Status (MFN) was not given to India at the eleventh hour. Rawalpindi advised the government to link MFN status with the resumption of full-fledged dialogue process. Islamabad is certain that New Delhi will not be able to make a successful peace deal with the people of Kashmir as long as Islamabad is not party to it.

Secondly, Kashmir will remain a boiling pot for a long time as alienation and disenchantment with India is largely irreversible. BJP’s aggressive polices and efforts to form government in Srinagar further widen the trust deficit between people of Kashmir and New Delhi.

The absence of a dialogue and peace process is vindicating hardliners who have been opposing engagement with India. The Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front’s chief, Yasin Malik, has clearly stated that "Modi is not going to give us any diplomatic or political space. We are ready to face that." The local print media reported that young and educated professionals are joining militant outfits and they are highly motivated. Recently, some of the militant commanders’ funerals were attended by thousands of people.

In Pakistan, pro-engagement lobby is fast shrinking. New Delhi did not reciprocate Prime Minster Sharif’s peace offensive which resulted in less space for dialogue and reconciliation. The major casualty is ex-president Pervez Musharraf’s 4-point formula over Kashmir. The current government has buried it without suggesting any alternative.

Instead of generating fresh thinking on the issue, the government seeks settlement of the issue in accordance with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions passed at various occasions in 1950s.

The NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan without much success emboldened a section of the establishment and right wing who want to settle old score with India if it ups the ante.

Civil and military leadership in Pakistan have not been on the same page regarding Pakistan relations with India or about supporting the cause of Kashmir since long. On the other hand, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has failed to initiate debate within the state organs to develop common ground and consensus regarding his approach over India and Kashmir.