Security officials say North Waziristan agency is the last safe haven for local and foreign militants. So, would an offensive in the area result in a strong backlash from the militants in mainland Pakistan?

Tribal sources say that in case of an operation, it is likely that they would not remain neutral and turn some of their guns towards Pakistan, creating serious security challenges. Even though, some of these groups, like the Haqqani Network and Hafiz Gul Bahadar group, are considered pro-Pakistan.

The latest split between the Taliban groups is being seen as good news by security officials. "It would definitely dent the capacity of TTP to carry out attacks in settled areas of the country," says a security official on the condition of anonymity. He believes that military has the capability to clear North Waziristan Agency in weeks, and that the operation may have a severe backlash --"The military and civilian security agencies will have to work closely to tackle the situation".

Some experts, however, say that the reaction of TTP would not be severe this time. "The TTP is a house divided at present and this is the best time to launch an offensive against them," says Hasan Khan, an Islamabad-based senior journalist and expert on Taliban issues. "Punjabi Taliban would be most lethal in launching a backlash but a majority of them is with Khan Said Sajna. Mullah Fazlullah, in the given situation, may only be effective to launch some attacks in Swat and Malakand areas as he is based in Afghanistan," says Khan.

For him, a half-hearted operation would make things complicated.

Sources close to the Taliban in North Waziristan say that during the last few months, the TTP has strengthened its network all over the country. "This process of peace talks has provided them a great opportunity to regroup and strengthen their network in settled areas. They were moving freely in tribal areas and were conducting their meetings to ‘discuss peace process’ on regular intervals," says a reliable source who does not want to be identified.

The separation of the Sajna group is a big blow to the TTP’s strength to retaliate. "But it still does not mean that they cannot attack cities in case of an operation in North Waziristan. All groups have suicide bombers. They have good presence in cities. The operation may also affect Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban in Afghanistan as an operation against Haqqani Network would surely disturb them."

The security officials, on the other hand, say the involvement of some neighbour countries would make things more complicated. "Afghan spy agency, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) and intelligence agencies of some other countries are directly involved in funding and providing intelligence support and material to some groups of the TTP. They would help them in launching attacks in different cities of the country," claims a security source.

A senior official in the interior ministry says the government is prepared to tackle the backlash. "We have the information that militants are planning to launch suicide attacks in the country if a military operation is launched in their stronghold. We have decided to use both the security forces and the police on high alert to maintain peace in the country. For instance, paramilitary forces along with police have already started patrolling in Islamabad."

Also, they add, "The government has asked Rawalpindi and Islamabad police to get in touch with the army to get assistance for securing the twin cities. Police officials of Islamabad have already met the authorities concerned in GHQ and requested assistance of the 111 Brigade. The troops would not only be deputed at the entry and exist points of the cities but they would also patrol in Islamabad."

Two small-scale IED attacks in Islamabad last week, according to police officials, appear to be a warning from the militants against a potential operation in NWA. "They seem to have warned us that they could carry out attacks in major cities," says a senior police official in Islamabad. "It is not an easy job to secure our cities. We have more than 160 entry points to Islamabad. Police has the capacity to secure 20-25 of them while a majority of them are not fully secure. We have sought help from the army and rangers, to secure the city," he says.