A Russia worth noticing

March 16, 2014

A Russia worth noticing

The Soviet Knight, once dying in his armour, has stirred in Russia. Putin has stunned the Western world with an unabashed invasion of Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin’s brazen attempt to control Ukraine was made obvious to analysts in November when then president Viktor Yanukovich reneged on an agreement promising closer ties to the EU -- a move that sparked the largest protests witnessed in Ukraine since the Orange revolution. A few days later, almost as if on cue, President Yanukovich was pictured receiving what can only be described in retrospect as a golden handshake from Putin in a deal promising to buy $15b of Ukrainian debt alongside a price reduction in gas by about a third.

However, the masses were not to be purchased with bribes, nor quelled by the enforcement of the anti-protest laws that were passed days later, a result both oligarchs (at least Putin certainly) had anticipated.

If Russia could not use her economic and political currency to control her interests in Ukraine, Putin would use the ensuing political turmoil to do so by force. By March 1, the Russian parliament approved Putin’s request to use Russian forces in Ukraine, a move Putin defended in a 90 minute telephone conversation with an exasperated President Obama, as "Moscow’s right to protect its interests and those of Russian speakers in Ukraine".

The US is reeling from protracted wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and a financial crisis it has not yet clawed its way out of. Even the American people (despite Fox News’s best efforts to convince them otherwise) do not want to intervene in other sovereign states because they want the government to address problems at home.

The Europeans (save Germany) find themselves in an abysmal financial state and are dependent on seeking business deals with Russia without mention of democratisation, liberalisation or Russia’s civil rights abuses. Many including Germany, France, Poland, Sweden and Finland are either dependent on or have a vested interest in Russian oil and gas.

Off the continent, Andy Hunder, President of the Ukraine Institute in London, confirmed in an interview with Al Jazeera on March 5 that No. 10’s writ too is floundering when confronted with the realpolitik consequences of taking a moral stand against Russia which is heavily invested in London property and business.

Putin made full use of his ace in the hole, Yanukovich, to bolster his justification for the deployment of troops as Russia’s UN Envoy says the toppled president asked Russian president in writing for use of force.

A Russia-controlled Yanukovich was part of Putin’s vision for the new empire -- the ‘Eurasian Union’ consisting of ex-Soviet states in which Russia would sit at the helm. Russia would have liked to haul in all of Ukraine; however Crimea itself is no small fish either.

It holds the Black Sea port of Sevastopol which has been a source of Russian naval power from the 1700s to the Soviet era, giving it reach to the Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Balkans. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia had been leasing the port -- that deal’s extension to 2042 was widely criticised, particularly by opposition forces (dubbed ‘extremists’ by Putin) that are now in power in Kiev. Despite Russia’s construction of a navy base in Novorossisk, near Sochi, analysts agree that Sevastopol remains the navy’s preferred base in the Black Sea region because of its size, location and infrastructure.

Some commentators also point to Russian Romanticism; about how Crimea was once the jewel of the Russian empire, the retreat of Romanov tsars and the playground of Politburo fat cats -- over one million Russians continue to holiday in the peninsula every year. Not that Putin cares much for popularity, but millions of Russians cheering a champion that will return them Crimea offers soft power by the way of positive narrative, something Russia’s predecessor always lacked.

Should Pakistan and our neighbours worry? Hardly. An interesting analysis by Rusian Pukhov in the International New York Times explains that Putin’s aim may not be de jure separation of Crimea from the rest of Ukraine -- but only to strong arm the greatest possible autonomy for Crimea while still retaining formal Ukrainian jurisdiction of the Peninsula. However, this theory is moot if Crimea’s lawmakers manage to push a referendum whose ballot only gives its people a choice between joining Russia or adopting the ‘1992 constitution’ -- the status quo whereby Crimea has autonomy within Ukraine is not an option.

Pukhov suggests that Russia maintains a strong interest in keeping Crimea in Ukraine as the peninsula’s separatist leanings serve as a direct avenue of Russian pressure on Ukraine and guarantee nearly a million pro-Russian votes in Ukrainian elections. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ms Yulia Tymoshenko (who enjoyed Moscow’s de facto support in 2010) return to broker a deal of compromise with a magnanimous Putin.

That notwithstanding, seizing Crimea, a Russian speaking part of Ukraine which was once part of Russia, where many might prefer Russian citizenship and where Russia has a naval base, does not indicate ambitions for global dominance. The Soviet Knight was dying because communism could not provide the rising productivity required to sustain his armour, nor feed the people he claimed to fight for. Unlike a carefully planned state economy like China’s or a liberalised economy that incentivises innovation and hard work, Russia’s potential is fettered to its mafia-run petro-state.  It is quite unlikely Russia will turn her eyes to a region where aggressors including herself, and most recently the US have failed to make any substantial gains.

Suffice it to say that it now seems we are truly entering a post-unilateral world. While Western Europe and the US try to steady themselves, China is cautiously increasing its military budget and continues to enjoy a rising growth rate and a coveted middle class. If China’s approach to power is steady and cautious, Russia’s recent attempt has ironically read like an old Western. In the 21st century, a European country has been invaded, and no grand alliance or so called superpower has dared move against this. Once more, it is a new world. Learn the rules.

 

A Russia worth noticing