The verdict announced by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on the 330 MW Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project, which India is building in the occupied Jammu and Kashmir, is likely to have grave repercussions on Pakistan’s water interests, especially hurting the hydropower generation capacity of the lower riparian country’s Neelum-Jhelum project by at least 10 per cent.

Pakistan anticipates to complete by December 2015 its 969MW Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower project at an estimated cost of Rs278 billion. Pakistan will have to face a loss of $145 million every year for the power lost in its Neelum-Jhelum project following massive reduction in water flows. In drought conditions, as faced by the country in 2001, the annual loss might exceed $544 million. On an average, Pakistan has been receiving 2.45 million acre feet of water every year over the last 30 years.

Prior to announcement of PCA’s decision, the government had informed the Senate of Pakistan that the construction of Kishanganga project in the Indian-held Kashmir would result in 13 per cent decrease in the flow of water for Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project. Furthermore, India’s Kishanganga project would reduce energy generation of Pakistan Neelum-Jhelum project by 13 per cent or 700 million units, the Upper House was told.

Located alongside AJK’s Neelum valley, Kishanganga Hydropower project has been designed to change the course of river Kishanganga (known as Neelum in Pakistan) by some 100 kilometres through a channel and a 23-kilometre tunnel, by diverting it to join the Wullar Lake and the river Jhelum near Bandipur in IHK. Presently, both rivers Kishanganga (Neelum) and Jhelum join each other at Muzaffarabad in AJK.

The Kishanganga Hydropower project has a gross storage capacity of 18.80 million cubic metres or 14,900 acre feet of water with a dead storage capacity of 8,755 acre feet. Work was halted on the Kishanganga project when Pakistan raised the objections but, following PCA’s verdict, India can now divert water from the Kishanganga into the Bona Madmati Nallah, impacting the water flows in Pakistan’s river and affecting Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower project’s electricity generation capacity by 10-30 per cent in winter season.

There were two questions before the PCA to decide. First, how much water India will allow down Kishanganga? Second, can India make dams with drawdown flushing below dead storage level? As far as the first question was concerned, Pakistan had demanded 15 cumec (500 cusecs) of water in August-September and 12 cumec (400 cusecs) in October-March. India said that 4 cumec (100 cusecs) could be given to Pakistan. The court has granted 9 cumec (318 cusecs) to Pakistan. Hence, we can regard the court verdict on this count as a partial victory for Pakistan.

About the second issue, in the court’s award, it has been held that India could not make dams with drawdown flushing below dead storage level. India wanted application of this part of the verdict only for Kishanganga dam, not for all future dams. But, the court has rejected the Indian view and held that the above principle will be applicable on all future dams on the rivers Jhelum and Chenab. "On this point, it is a big victory for Pakistan," official circles maintain, since it "will safeguard our water rights in future also."

The PCA verdict binds India to release half flow of the river water -- 9 cubic metres per second out of 18 cubic metres per second, in winter. India had asked the Hague Court that it would release 4.25 cubic metres water per second in winter season, but the court did not agree and asked India to ensure water releases to Pakistan up to 9 cubic metres per second.

On the issue of water diversion, one can therefore say that Pakistan has achieved partial success. However, Pakistan was expecting that the PCA would ensure enough releases of water in its rivers so that its Neelum-Jhelum project generates electricity up to 94 per cent of its capacity. But, under the decision, the project will now be able to generate electricity only up to 90 per cent.

Article 90 of ICJ’s decision speaks volumes about Pakistan team’s ineptness. It says: "Pakistan has submitted no data on current or anticipated agricultural uses of water from the Kishanganga/Neelum. Pakistan has, however, stated that future development in the Neelum Valley will be contingent on the increased use of lift irrigation from the river and on a move away from subsistence agriculture. The parties disagree as to whether such potential future uses are relevant to the determination of the minimum flow."

Following PCA’s decision, some stakeholders have started questioning the way Pakistan’s case was fought in The Hague Court and the rationale for the appointment of Kamal Majidullah, who led the Pakistan team in the court till the announcement of the partial award on February 18, 2013. Kamal Majidullah was special advisor (water and food) to the prime minister and Pakistan’s agent in Kishanganga case. Some circles maintain that Kamal Majidullah was alien to the trans-boundary water issues. And that he was the one who managed to get notified the Pakistan Trans-border Water Organization (PTWO) on September 23, 2011 and brought down Pakistan’s Commission of Indus Water (PCIW) under PTWO’s umbrella, binding PCIW to directly and exclusively report to PTWO and also limiting PCIW’s role in the legal battle against India on Pakistan’s water rights. PCIW was not even allowed to report to its parent Ministry of Water and Power, alleges Mirza Asif Beg, Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissioner in an interview with daily The News (December 29, 2013).

Once water abundant, Pakistan has now become "one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, not far from being classified water scarce." In 1947, Pakistan possessed 5,600 cubic meters of water per person, which decreased to 1,100 cubic meters per head by 2009 and now stands below 1,000 cubic meters per person. According to international water standards, countries having water reservoirs below 1,100 cubic meters water per person are considered among the chronic water shortage states.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has pinpointed that Pakistan’s water storage capacity (the amount of water it has on reserve in case of an emergency) is limited to 30 days, which is far below the recommended 1,000 days for countries with similar climates. The report notes that the last several years have seen Pakistan plagued by chronic energy scarcities and power outages lasting up to 18 hours a day, with damaging effects on its economy and the well-being of its citizens. According to ADB, deficiencies of energy and water resources have the potential to intensify the already unstable situation in the country.

Admittedly, water and electricity scarcity have emerged as the main impediments to the country’s sustained growth. But, unfortunately, some quarters spare no effort in making even technically feasible water conservation projects controversial, on one count or the other. Instead of settling scores, leaders and political parties of all hues and colours need to consider issues on merit and on merit alone so as to construct a better future for the nation and the country.

While Pakistan has been able to utilise only 13 per cent of its hydro resources during the last six decades, some countries make optimum use of these resources. For example, USA has developed 497 per cent storage capacity of the annual flow of river Colorado, Egypt 281 per cent on river Nile and India 35 per cent on Satluj and Bias Basin.

Meanwhile, fearing scarcity of water, many nations remain engaged in building mega water reservoirs. China is building 95 major dams with a height of 200 feet or more, Turkey 51, Iran 48, Japan 40 and India 10.

As hydropower is economical to thermal and other sources of energy, if it is used on a wider scale it can provide tariff relief to consumers, and involve Pakistani manpower in planning, designing and manufacturing of machinery besides accelerating the pace of country’s economic development in general and the remote rural areas in particular. Currently, WAPDA generates about 35 per cent hydropower and 65 per cent thermal power. Being costly, the latter source of power has landed the fuel supplying and the electricity generating companies in a chronic trap of circular debt.

India has already constructed or is in the process of constructing scores of dams on the western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Basin Treaty. The Treaty was signed in 1960 after World Bank’s intervention, following rising tensions between India and Pakistan after New Delhi stemmed the flow of Indus tributaries to Pakistan on April 1, 1948.

There is, therefore, a dire need not only to remain vigilant on India’s dam construction spree but also to build up mega dams on the river Indus. Besides, the country needs to exploit the run-of-the-river potential of its rivers and canals for hydropower generation, undertake a comprehensive water conservation campaign and create awareness about the modern techniques of irrigation.