ver the past month, Balochistan has been in the grip of political uncertainty and public unrest. The province is also witnessing an alarming rise in terrorist violence. To add to the turmoil, the National Highways linking Balochistan to Taftan and Karachi remains closed, creating serious challenges for both traders and other travellers.

The Balochistan National Party began a long march on March 28 from Wadh, aiming to reach Quetta. However, the march has been stopped at Mastung. It has now turned into a protest sit-in. The BNP has demanded that it be allowed to hold its protest in Quetta’s Red Zone. The government insists on allowing the protest at the Shahwani Stadium, which it has designated for the demonstration. Section 144 remains imposed in the city, and officials warn that any defiance will be met with legal consequences. So far, three government delegations sent for negotiations with BNP have returned unsuccessful.

The matter goes back to the March 11 attack on the Jaffar Express. Following the attack, the bodies of suspected attackers were brought to a hospital. The Baloch Yakjehti Committee claimed that the bodies were of some missing persons not militants. As protests intensified, a police crackdown led to three deaths. Mahrang Baloch blamed the police for the killings. The police claimed, however, that the shots were fired from within the crowd of protesters.

The BYC then began a sit-in protest on Sariab Road alongside the bodies. Police conducted another crackdown, arresting key BYC leaders, including Mahrang Baloch, Seemi Deen Baloch, and Bebo Baloch. The authorities registered three cases against them.

Their arrest prompted strong reaction from the BNP and several other opposition parties, demanding the women’s release. The government maintained that all actions were taken in accordance with the constitution and the law. Emphasising its demand, BNP leader Sardar Akhtar Mengal announced a long march to Quetta. The march, which began on March 28 from Wadh, was stopped at Lakpass in Mastung. Near the site, there was a suicide bombing. Fortunately, no other casualties were reported.

The BNP’s march is supported by the Movement for the Protection of the Constitution of Pakistan and opposition parties in the Balochistan Assembly. Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam has offered to mediate. The JUI proposed placing the arrested women under house arrest as a goodwill gesture. This could allow the BNP to walk away from the protest while keeping the women technically in custody. Senator Maulana Abdul Wasey, the JUI provincial chief, said that close aides of Akhtar Mengal responded positively, but the government did not accept the proposal.

In another development, a delegation from the National Party, led by its president Dr Abdul Malik, met with former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and urged him to intervene and help find a political solution to the crisis.

Political analysts believe that Baloch nationalist parties view the state’s hardline policies as aggravating the province’s problems. They advocate resolving issues through dialogue and political negotiation. On the other hand, Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti has repeatedly asserted in the assembly and the media that no talks will be held with armed groups promoting secessionist agendas. He has emphasised that the state had not yet declared a war, and urged armed individuals to disarm and engage in peaceful discussion.

For eight years, Balochistan’s nationalist parties have seen a decline in influence. The Haq Do movement in Gwadar and the rise of BYC have disrupted traditional political dynamics. The absence of student unions has led the youth to align with groups like the BYC. Even some political workers and previously apolitical individuals now support these movements.

Analysts suggest that Sardar Akhtar Mengal is aligning with BYC in an effort to revive his political relevance. He previously resigned from the National Assembly, citing repeated denials of his right to speak and expressing disappointment with the parliamentary system. Following his resignation, he left for Dubai. Now, with the BYC leadership under arrest, Mengal appears to be using the momentum to re-establish his political standing.

Sources indicate that the BNP had earlier discussed organising an all-party conference, but it was advised to postpone it until after Ramazan and Eid due to the uncertain political climate. Mengal’s decision to launch a long march came as a surprise.

Some observers say that this move may have been rushed or strategically timed to pre-empt other nationalist parties from taking the lead. Mengal likely did not anticipate such a response from the authorities. Despite repeatedly stating a desire for a peaceful demonstration, the BNP now finds itself politically trapped. It is unwilling to initiate confrontation but also hesitant to retreat without achieving its demands. A withdrawal without resolution could further damage both the BNP’s and Mengal’s political credibility.

Meanwhile, the closure of key highways to Taftan and Karachi has inflicted financial losses worth millions on the business community. Transporters and travellers stranded on these blocked routes continue to face severe difficulties.

The writer is a Balochistan-based journalist with 15 years of experience with several national and international media organisations. He covers a range of socio-political issues, including politics, conflict and human rights.