ince its birth, the Pakistan Peoples Party has come across many challenges. It has witnessed many ups and down, from the execution of its founder, the former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and the assassination of his daughter, former premier Benazir Bhutto. Never before, however, has the party faced a situation like the one it is confronted with today. While the movement against the canals project led by Sindhi nationalist parties gathers steam, the PPP has yet to pick up pace.

The PPP finds itself in a no-win situation. Top party leaders, including party chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, have demanded that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif should shelve the project or call a meeting of the Council of Common Interests. However, the federal and the Punjab governments remain unmoved. Instead, the Punjab government spokesperson, Azma Bokhari, indirectly gave a boost to the opposition’s narrative by indicating that the president had approved the project and that the Sindh government was simply politicising the project. Where does the PPP go from here? The party plans to stage a huge anti-canal rally in Hyderabad on April 18. The dilemma, however, is that the Centre and the Punjab have indirectly rejected the demand; the project is alive.

Perhaps, there are those who think that the anti-canal movement would die down. But will it?

There have been many popular anti-government movements in Sindh, particularly in rural Sindh. These have included the agitation in the 1950s and 1960 against One Unit followed by the peasants’ movement for land reforms. The 1983 MRD movement against martial law had its own dynamics; a number of people were killed. The movement against Kalabagh Dam led by a joint nationalist parties’ alliance called the POONAM forced the government to drop the plan. But the one against the six-canals project has turned out to be unprecedented. It has been entirely peaceful and yet, effective. Six months in, it refuses to die down. The most significant aspect of the movement is that though many parties have joined it, it is ‘leaderless.’ This aspect of the movement appears to be the most daunting for the ruling elite. Children, the youth, men and women, teachers, intellectuals, the civil society and the media, particularly the Sindhi media, have been vocal on the subject.

Many, including some PPP leaders, realise that they were late to join the bandwagon. One reason for this could be that they never imagined the project could stir such an uproar.

For the first time since the execution of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto on April 4, 1979, the issue overshadowed the death anniversary activities. This should be an eye-opener for those doubting the gravity and sensitivity of the issue.

An intriguing part of the controversy is the minutes of a meeting held in July, last year at the Presidency. What really transpired at that meeting attended, among others, by people from powerful quarters? What position did President Zardari take at that meeting, even if he did not approve of it? Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah has said that the president cannot approve such a project unless it is first approved by the CCI. The issue became more controversial when some party leaders claimed that the minutes were not recorded correctly. If that was the case, why was there no clarification from the Aiwan-i-Sadr once the minutes were circulated? Also, who had recorded the minutes of the meeting attended by the top hierarchy of the state? Was any action taken against the said officer?

As expected, in his address to the joint session of the parliament, the president warned the government over the canal issue and the growing concern in Sindh. Be that as it may, the federal and the Punjab governments have not shelved the project. Nor has a meeting of the CCI been convened. Nor has the PPP withdrawn its support for the government.

President Zardari’s recent absence from public, reportedly due to ill health, has given rise to uncalled for speculation on social media. The PPP leaders have dismissed and condemned the campaign against him on social media. Meanwhile, Bilawal Bhutto has reportedly flown to Dubai. He is likely to return in a week.

In the post-Benazir Bhutto era, the PPP has faced a leadership crisis, particularly on the popular front. It suffered badly in the Punjab in the 2013 elections. Since then, it has been unable to bounce back. It has won only a few seats in southern Punjab; those too have belonged to one or two families. For the first time, the PPP vote bank was shrinking. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, too, where in 2008, the PPP had formed a government with the Awami National Party, it has been losing its foothold. Strong support for the party still comes from rural Sindh. Therefore, the PPP cannot afford to risk this constituency.

One of the biggest advantages for the PPP over the past four decades in Sindh has been the divided opposition to it. While most Sindhi nationalists in the past opted for non-parliamentary politics, those who did, failed to get into the assemblies. So, they often formed alliances like the Grand Democratic Alliance. Over the years, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam has made inroads in Sindh. Even combined, all these have been unable to challenge the PPP in parliamentary politics in the province. Mainstream parties like the PML-N and the PTI have not gained much support either.

Only time will tell how the issue comes to an end, but one thing is certain: the movement is very unlikely to die down on its own. Water is a matter of life and death for agricultural communities. Given the kind of political awakening being witnessed in Sindh currently, it would be naïve to take Sindh for a ride, even for a party that has always had its mandate. So, what will it be?

The writer is a columnist and analyst for GEO, Jang and The News. His X handle: @MazharAbbasGEO