he Muttahida Qaumi Movement has experienced a significant decline in its influence and relevance in Karachi’s politics between 2018 and 2024. The MQM’s waning popularity raises questions about its future and ability to reclaim its position as a major player in urban Sindh politics.

In 2024, the MQM-P secured 14 of the 22 (68 percent) National Assembly seats in Karachi Division. This was a significant increase in seat share from a disastrous 4-seat performance (19 percent) in the 2018 elections.

This rout in 2018 can be attributed to the 2016 crackdown, triggered by Altaf Hussain’s anti-state diatribe, leading to a significant split in the party, with Karachi leaders, headed by Dr Farooq Sattar, dissociating themselves from the London office. Also, in 2016, Mustafa Kamal launched the Pak Sarzameen Party, citing the need for a fresh start and a break from the corrupt practices he accused MQM of indulging in under Altaf Hussain’s leadership. The party’s subsequent fragmentation into multiple factions, including MQM (London), MQM (Pakistan), and Mustafa Kamal-led Pak Sarzameen Party, further weakened its strength.

Journalist Mazhar Abbas believes that despite the back-to-back crises, the party remained highly relevant, which would have allowed the MQM to bag 8-10 seats in the 2018 polls. Some analysts contend, however, that these were “handed” over to the PTI, enabling it to form a government at the Centre and take a dominant position in Sindh while the MQM ended up with only four National Assembly seats.

The political vacuum led the Gujrati-Memon community, previously loyal to the MQM, to align with the Tehreek-i-Labbaik.

The crises that befell the MQM were unrelenting. Ahead of the 2024 elections the continuing bickering and internal strife split the party into Bahadurabad (Khalid Maqbool Siddiqi), PIB (Farooq Sattar) and Shahrae-i-Faisal (Mustafa Kamal) factions. At one point, Siddiqui was asked by Mustafa Kamal to choose either a ministerial portfolio in the federal cabinet or the party convenership. Kamal’s vision for the party’s future diverges significantly from Siddiqui’s. Governor Kamran Tessori also has a pivotal role in the party’s dynamics.

The 2024 elections saw the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan winning 14 National Assembly seats. Despite the surge in the number of seats secured, observers believe that the MQM did not emerge stronger. To date, it has not been able to hold a major public rally like the ones that were once the party’s trademark under its founder Altaf Hussain.

In February last, the nomination of a nine-member committee led by its convenor Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui and comprising only two members from the erstwhile Pak Sarzameen Party, i.e. Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani, turned into a public spectacle when workers of both the groups all but came to blows at MQM’s Bahadurabad headquarters.

Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui’s decision to dissolve the MQM-P’s Coordination Committee has sparked controversy, with critics accusing him of seeking to consolidate his power and purge dissenting voices. The move has been framed as an effort to concentrate authority within a small group of leaders, silencing potential challengers to Siddiqui’s leadership. Governor Tessori’s involvement in the coordination committee controversy has sparked accusations of supporting Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui’s bid for greater control. However, his supporters argue that his pragmatic approach makes him a valuable ally, particularly in dealings with the central government.

The internal strife, says journalist Mazhar Abbas, has rendered the decision-making process a casualty. The party leadership is also seen as unable to make independent decisions. The general perception is that its recent threat of leaving the federal government coalition was just hot air, unless directed to do so by the powers that be.

But this is not a new phenomenon.

Several party leaders including Kamran Tessori, Mustafa Kamal and Barrister Farogh Nasim, have in the recent past, been accused of being agents of external forces rather than party faithful. Way back, senior MQM-P leader Amir Khan had complained that (then) federal law minister Barrister Farogh Nasim did not represent the party. Recently, Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui has made a similar remark about being in the dark about the induction of Mustafa Kamal in Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s cabinet.

The MQM-P is at a crossroads, grappling with intense internal conflicts that threaten to splinter the party. Some argue that the future of the MQM-P hinges on the leadership of Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, Syed Mustafa Kamal, Farooq Sattar and Kamran Tessori, who must navigate internal divisions and adapt to Pakistan’s shifting political landscape to restore the party’s credibility.

With MQM-P caught up in disarray, the PTI, the Jamaat-i-Islami and the PPP have gained ground, further diminishing the party’s relevance. This has led to the fragmentation of the party’s voter base and its loss to the PTI, the PPP and the JI. No single party can now claim to be the sole representation of urban Sindh.

The JI, Mazhar Abbas says, is unable to perform effectively in the national or provincial elections, finding success only in local body polls. The credit for its success at this level goes to its ability to champion Karachi’s local issues. However, the momentum has been lost. The same applies to the PPP, which maintains a limited vote bank in the city’s ethnic Sindhi pockets but cannot claim to represent the entire city.

The PTI, attempted to fill the political void in 2018 but ultimately fell short. Their failure stemmed from awarding tickets to non-Urdu-speaking candidates, and the utter failure of the party’s political organisation to deliver on ground. Unlike the MQM, the PTI leadership did not emerge from the grassroots. None of its prominent leaders came from the lower-middle class.

Meanwhile, Karachi’s social and economic landscape has undergone a massive transformation, with a large number of private businesses and educational institutions having practically turned a once-sensitive Karachi domicile factor into a non-issue. The domicile requirement was a cornerstone of MQM’s early appeal, offering urban youth a pathway to education and employment. However, its impact has faded over time.

To regain relevance, the MQM must adapt to emerging realities, seek new faces and craft a new narrative, counsels Mazhar Abbas. The party can no longer rely solely on its “sense of deprivation” rhetoric. Pressing concerns such as water shortages, inadequate public transport, law and order, drainage issues and traffic accidents must become part of the new discourse. These issues are faced by every Karachiite and not just the Urdu-speaking community.

The MQM’s future hinges on its ability to evolve and address the changing needs of Karachi’s residents. By shifting its focus towards pressing issues and seeking new leadership, the party can potentially reclaim its position in urban Sindh.

The writer is a senior The News staffer in Karachi