t appears that the negotiations between the government and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf are in the doldrums. This could be so for a number of reasons: dwindling trust on both sides; PTI’s keen interest in holding talks with the military leadership instead of the political; the nature of PTI’s demands; and, last but not the least, the ruling coalition’s, especially the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s, reluctance to meet the PTI.

When the dialogue gained momentum after the PTI submitted its written demands in the third meeting, the party’s incarcerated supremo, Imran Khan, revealed to the media that a meeting had taken place in Peshawar between the army chief, Gen Syed Asim Munir, and PTI chairman Gohar Ali Khan. Gohar, who had earlier denied any such meeting, stated that he had indeed met the army chief and discussed the party’s viewpoint about rising political temperatures. The news lent weight to already circulating rumours about a speculated PTI-establishment deal. This caused discomfort among the PML-N leadership.

However, informed sources privy to the meeting say that the army chief discussed terrorism-related issues in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with PTI leaders, including Gohar and Ali Amin Gandapur, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa chief minister. When they tried to discuss political issues, sources say, Gen Munir asked them to take up the issue with the political leadership.

PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif was also unhappy about this meeting. However, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif briefed him about the actual meeting.

Now, the matter has once again returned to where it all began: between the ruling coalition and the PTI. The PTI has demanded two judicial commissions to probe the May 9 and November 24-26 incidents, including the arrest of Imran Khan and PTI activists.

PML-N insiders say that PTI’s demands were discussed by its leaders. They concluded that since the matter was before courts, the PTI demand could not be met.

According to sources, PML-N leaders discussed the draft clause-by-clause and concluded that a judicial commission could not be formed regarding the events of May 9.

According to sources, PML-N leaders discussed the draft clause-by-clause and concluded that a judicial commission could not be formed regarding the events of May 9. The dominant opinion was that a judicial commission could be constituted where the matter was not before a court. Since cases related to May 9 events were already in the courts, and some of the accused had been found guilty and sentenced by military courts for the same, it was inappropriate to form a commission.

With regard to November 26 events, the leaders decided that more details, including a list of missing and detained individuals, should be provided. A commitment to release the activists could not be made without the list of names and relevant details. Likewise, the PTI had mentioned fatalities but the PML-N said that details of the deceased had not been provided.

The ruling coalition and the opposition had agreed to a dialogue a few weeks ago in a bid to bring down political temperature. The PTI has withdrawn two of its key demands, suggesting that the party fears military trials of Imran Khan and other party leaders. Given that military courts have recently convicted 25 PTI activists in cases related to the May 9 events, and former ISI chief Faiz Hameed is facing a field court-martial, PTI appears to be on the backfoot. This is a shift away from the hawkish narrative preferred by some PTI leaders only a few weeks ago. Some commentators have said that the flexibility exhibited recently by Imran Khan goes against his political instinct.

Faisal Chaudhry, Imran Khan’s lawyer, says that if a judicial commission is not formed, the negotiations will not proceed further.

The PML-N, on the other hand, is seen as throwing tantrums. However, Irfan Siddiqui, a member of the government’s negotiating committee, has said that nothing has been finalised yet. “We are discussing the demands with our coalition partners. We will come up with a consensus response.”

Rana Sanaullah, political advisor to the prime minister, says that the government’s committee will submit a written response to PTI’s demands addressing all points including the formation of the judicial commission(s).

Some PML-N insiders categorically say that no commission will be formed. If that is the case, what will happen once the government formally conveys this to the PTI? Will dialogue between political forces continue? Or will the establishment step in to replace a political force on the negotiating table?

The author is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. His X handle: @BukhariMubasher