resident Trump is an outsider; unorthodox, populist and domineering. Ever since he entered politics about ten years ago, he has been at the centre of American political discourse. His approach has made him a unique figure in American political history. He is the only US president to have been twice impeached, and only the second president to win non-consecutive presidential elections.

President Trump’s victory has reignited global debates about his unpredictable political strategies, unorthodox diplomacy and direct engagement with foreign policy issues. While broad implications of his leadership will ripple across the globe, Pakistan, a nation geopolitically pivotal and historically entangled in US foreign policy, faces unique consequences. Trump’s re-entry into the White House not only holds the potential to recalibrate bilateral relations but also reshapes internal political calculations and strategic priorities for Pakistan’s establishment.

The first and foremost significant reality is that President Trump’s second term will follow his so-called America First doctrine, a cornerstone approach emphasising transactional diplomacy, unilateralism, a protectionist approach to global trade and non-interventionism. This approach will have profound effects on US-Pakistan relations, where the questions of foreign aid and financial support will now be judged more by their benefit to Washington than anything else. Pakistan has long relied on US support in military aid, economic assistance and regional diplomacy. During Trump’s first presidency, US-Pakistan relationship experienced turbulence. His administration’s criticism of Pakistan’s alleged “double game” on counterterrorism strained bilateral ties. The suspension of military aid and public rebukes weakened Pakistan’s international standing, particularly concerning its role in the Afghan peace process. However, during the latter years of his first term, Trump’s pragmatic need for Pakistan’s cooperation in the US-Taliban negotiations tempered his rhetoric, providing an opportunity for Islamabad to regain a foothold in Washington’s strategic calculus.

This time, President Trump has arrived more determined to achieve his unfinished agenda. There is a widespread belief in Trump administration’s inner circles that American taxpayer dollars are grossly wasted without achieving any significant material benefit to the US economic and strategic interests. This approach applies to Pakistan as well. However, distrust has now turned into insignificance because of American withdrawal from Afghanistan. It is understood that Trump’s second presidency is likely to amplify the transactional nature of bilateral relationship, so that every concession to Pakistan is expected to yield visible returns for US interests.

Given that US-China bilateral trade is highly in favour of Beijing and that President Trump is determined to reverse globalisation and replace it with protectionist tariff policies, the fear of a Cold War II is not unfounded. This confrontational approach has significant foreign policy implications for Pakistan, given its deepening economic and strategic ties with Beijing, especially through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. So far, Pakistan has managed its trade relations with the United States without any effect on its deepening strategic relations with China. However, there may come a time when Islamabad will be asked to respond to a “either with us or against us” scenario. For Pakistan, managing this geopolitical dichotomy will be a significant challenge. On one hand, its reliance on Chinese investments for infrastructure and economic growth makes Beijing a critical ally. On the other, Islamabad cannot afford to alienate Washington, given its role in securing financial assistance from institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Historically, the United States has used human rights violations, democratic failures and political victimisation as pretexts to raise pressure to seek policy concessions. Recently, the Pakistani diaspora, of which a majority supports Imran Khan and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf, has been very active in approaching Trump administration officials to pressure Pakistan on these accounts.

The end of the War on Terror in Afghanistan has relieved some of the pressure on Islamabad. Simultaneously, the worsening security situation in various regions adjacent to the Pak-Afghan border might cause internal displacement, requiring support from international institutions. Since these issues do not directly and immediately affect Washington, President Trump is likely to focus on sustaining a minimal footprint in the region while ensuring that the situation does not become a breeding ground for terrorism. Pakistan’s role as a regional stabiliser will once again come under scrutiny. Trump may demand guarantees from Islamabad to prevent cross-border insurgencies and maintain pressure on the Taliban to adhere to their commitments. US might divest Islamabad of already scarce financial resources. The apparent cost of dealing with the looming security threats in Pakistan and the Pak-Afghan border regions may not be borne by Washington, thus increasing financial pressure on Islamabad.

This external pressure could exacerbate internal challenges for Pakistan’s establishment.

President Trump has a reputation for establishing personal relations with foreign leaders. He has a propensity to bypass traditional diplomatic channels and engage directly with such leaders.

During his first term, then prime minister Imran Khan seemed to have impressed him. The Trump administration might bring heightened scrutiny of Pakistan’s human rights record, particularly concerning press freedom, minority rights and political dissent. Some of President Trump’s advisors have posted tweets in support of Imran Khan.

It is imperative for Islamabad to reinvent its relationship with Washington in the light of latest political and strategic developments in the region and beyond. Once President Trump has a favourable perception of Pakistan, the country can gain a lot of strategic and economic benefits from Washington.

The writer is a professor of government at Houston Community College, USA. He recently published his book The Rise of the Semi-Core: China, India and Pakistan in the World-System. He can be reached at suklashari@gmail.com