n retrospect, chaos is what aptly describes the year that has gone by for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: a dreary political situation; deteriorating law and order; and of course, its financial crunch. If past trends are something to go by, most, if not all, indicators suggest that the chaos is likely to continue in the weeks to come. Let’s run through some reason why that may be so.

PTI’s march to the capital

A charged crowd of thousands managed to cross the Indus twice, blocking Islamabad and choking major arteries. Ali Amin Gandapur, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s chief minister, earned the reputation of carrying out the disappearing act, not once but twice, leaving his party workers, and even the opposition, wondering just whose side he was on. Imran Khan remains in jail despite the unsettled air on the motorway that still reeks of tear gas and bears the markings of moat-like holes on the main road – pushing the vicinity back hundreds of years. Not to forget how Gandapur stated that he crossed some 14 [non-existent] districts to reach Peshawar, and we have a fable to chronicle in the unending tales of disastrous politics of the country.

But no matter just how killing the humour in these statements is, it has managed to create space for dialogue with Imran Khan. While the military courts dished out up to 10 years’ imprisonment to some of the rioters of the May 9 violence, the talk of the town remains the negotiations. If these succeed, it could not just end the incarceration of those in jail but also pave the way for a political future for the PTI. If that happens, it will be viewed as a success for the PTI. It may, meanwhile, come as a political blow to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan Peoples Party as they have tried everything in their power to get rid of Imran and his ilk. Recent events offer a glimmer of hope for the PTI.

The number of attacks during the last year surpassed that in 2009, the year in which Pakistan suffered the most due to terrorism. As things stand, the TTP will remain a menace in the near future.

Financial woes

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa faces severe economic challenges due to extortion and terrorism that have led to the closure of ten out of twelve textile mills and the relocation of about 100 manufacturers to the US, UK, Vietnam, Malaysia, the UAE and Turkey. Additionally, around 800 small units have shut down due to the law-and-order situation. As of June 30, the province’s debt has surged by 28.04 percent, reaching Rs 680 billion, up from Rs 530 billion in 2023. This increase is attributed to a 14.31 percent rise in net receipts and the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rates. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa currently holds 107 loans from international lenders, 32 of those still active, allowing withdrawals for ongoing projects; 75 have closed, and repayments have begun. For the fiscal year 2024-25, the government has allocated Rs 67 billion for debt servicing, including Rs 40 billion for principal repayments and Rs 27 billion for interest. Despite these challenges, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s economy remains resilient, recording a surplus of Rs 103 billion with revenues of Rs 316 billion and expenditures of Rs 212 billion. The province’s GDP is estimated at $40 billion, growing at 3.9 percent compared to Pakistan’s 2.5 percent. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s debt servicing is under 5 percent of total receipts, in stark contrast to the federal government’s 90 percent. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has unveiled a Rs 1.7 trillion budget for FY2025, with a development allocation of Rs 416 billion, focusing on social protection, law and order and economic development.

Rise of the PTM

The Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement gained traction during 2024 and was banned by the government. However, it still managed to hold its Pashtun Qaumi Adalat, when the federal and provincial governments carved a deal to avoid further confrontation after some members of the organisation were killed in a shootout with the police. The PTM managed to make two entities functional during the year: the Ulasi Pasoon, a rough conglomerate of political parties, trade unions and other stakeholders that has acted as a pressure group; and the Qaumi Adalat, which has maintained partial success. The PTM will likely remain banned in 2025. However, local sentiment attached to the PTM will only aggravate the conditions, if the security situation does not improve.

Return of the Pakistani Taliban

The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and other militant outfits not only jeopardised the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan but also expanded the scope of their attacks to more areas in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The number of attacks during the last year surpassed that in 2009, the year in which Pakistan suffered the most due to terrorism. As things stand, the TTP will remain a menace in the near future. With Pakistan’s major counter-terrorism efforts mainly engaged in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, it is expected that the military will expand the scope of its operations against the group. These operations had earlier been halted due to a lack of local support for large-scale operations. There are legitimate fears that 2025 might see more of violent conflict that has been intensifying since 2021.

The writer is the editor of The Khorasan Diary. He can be reached on X @iftikharfirdous