he Pakistan Peoples Party-led coalition government in Balochistan is navigating troubled waters, with internal divisions and external pressures threatening its stability. The latest development in this saga is the election of Ali Hassan Zehri, a close ally of President Asif Ali Zardari.

In the 2024 general elections, Sardar Saleh Bhootani had won from the Provincial Assembly constituency of Hub. However, a recount was ordered by an election tribunal and after a prolonged litigation, Zehri was declared the winner. Recently, Zehri took oath as member of the Provincial Assembly, signalling his entry into the main political landscape of the province.

Zehri’s statements right after his oath-taking have stirred controversy, hinting at fractures within the coalition. Zehri criticised Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti for neglecting development in the Hub district, an industrial and commercial centre. “The chief minister does not want Balochistan to progress,” he was quoted by the media as saying while lamenting the lack of funds for developmental work in his constituency. Zehri said that the responsibility to implement development projects lay squarely on the chief minister, as no minister could act without his approval. His remarks are being viewed as discontentment within the ruling coalition.

Later, however, Zehri backtracked, stating that his comments were misquoted by the media. In a conciliatory tone, he said, “Sarfraz Bugti and I are both PPP workers. There are no differences. Together we will play our role in the development of Balochistan.”

The retraction may have been an attempt at mending fences. However, the episode has highlighted the underlying tensions within the government. There is a strong rumour that Zehri is a contender for the chief minister’s office and enjoys the backing of President Zardari.

Another layer of complexity has been added to the provincial politics by claims made by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz leaders, including Federal Minister Jam Yousaf and Governor Jaffar Khan Mandokhel. They have publicly asserted that the coalition government’s tenure consists of two halves: The PPP is to lead the government for 2.5 years, followed by the PML-N with a similar term. If true, this raises questions about the stability of the government and the potential for a mid-term power shift.

The PML-N’s assertion suggests a broader tug-of-war over political influence in the province. This dynamic could be further exacerbated by changes in the federal government, particularly if a new prime minister assumes office in Islamabad. Shifts in the central government have often had a ripple effect in Balochistan, where political allegiances are fluid and coalitions fragile.

Another threat to the government is the role of Sadiq Sanjrani, the former Senate chairman. Sanjrani has been described as a “CM in waiting,” with speculation rife that he is positioning himself to take over as chief minister. According to sources within the Balochistan government, he is willing to merge his party, the Balochistan Awami Party, with either the PML-N or the PPP, depending on which alliance guarantees him the top slot.

Sanjrani’s manoeuvring underscores the fluidity of Balochistan’s political environment. He has been known to pull out a rabbit from his hat. As a member of the Provincial Assembly, he has not accepted a ministry. Some see this as an indication of his ambition to become the chief minister. This makes him a dark horse. He continues to remain a threat to the current government in Balochistan.

Popular resentment against the government is further exacerbating the situation. Balochistan has long suffered on account of underdevelopment, lack of infrastructure and poor service delivery. Things have not improved under the current government. Its detractors blame the government for bad governance and allege that corruption and financial misappropriation have increased since the CM assumed office. At the same time, the security situation in the province has aggravated. There are also endless sit-ins and protest demonstrations resulting in closure of highways. This and more is contributing to the unpopularity of the government. A change of government could therefore be welcomed.

The fate of the PPP-led government in Balochistan is closely tied to political developments in Islamabad. If there is a prime minister from the PPP then the Balochistan chief minister will likely be from the PML-N.

This link between federal and provincial politics is not unique to Balochistan; however, it is particularly pronounced in the province due to its sensitive reliance on federal funds. Instability at the Centre could further destabilise the PPP government in the province, creating openings for rival parties and disgruntled allies to challenge its authority.

The next few months will be critical in determining the fate of the coalition. Whether the PPP can navigate these challenges and retain its hold on the provincial government will depend on its ability to build consensus within its ranks and counter the ambitions of rival parties. In a province where political stability has often been elusive, the stakes have never been higher.

The writer is a journalist based in Islamabad. He is the lead contributing writer for Nikkei Asia in Pakistan. He can be reached at adnan.aamir@live.com. He posts on X at @iAdnanAamir