n terms of international politics, the year 2025 is expected to be as complex as 2024. Geopolitics will be fraught with wars, conflict and impact of climate change. Middle East, in particular will remain unstable.

The evolution of technology, particularly developments in artificial intelligence, might pose new challenges to human interactions. History’s lesson is that these challenges too shall pass giving way to progress, dialogue and greater interconnectivity. The year might see greater freedom in terms of regard for public opinion and a potential phasing out of authoritarian regimes. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria might have signaled that a people’s will can only be ignored at great peril.

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, the New Year does not promise peace and prosperity. Since the US withdrawal from the country in 2021, the Taliban regime has consolidated its power over the Afghan people. The humanitarian crisis in the country is expected to worsen, especially in terms of women’s rights. The prevalence of poverty is likely to increase as access to most avenues to progress, such as universal education, remains limited.

Authoritarian governments in countries such as Afghanistan can develop a feeling that they have nothing to lose in refusing to comply with international norms. This is an unfortunate situation and requires the international community to make proactive efforts to end the isolation by creating suitable incentives. If the human rights abuses in the country continue, the Taliban government will continue to be shunned and the benefits of international cooperation and engagement will not accrue. On the other hand international condemnation of the regime, however, strong and frequent, will not help the Afghan people, particularly the most vulnerable segments of the Afghan society. As conditions set in the Doha Agreement remain unfulfilled, the UN aid programmes are unlikely to step in. This will leave millions of people in dire conditions. The country’s predicament is thus part internal and part external problems. The National Resistance Front has so far only contributed to the instability.

Israeli military operations in Gaza and Israel-controlled West Bank will likely exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. The ultra-nationalist Israeli government might continue to be criticised by most of the world for its offenses. This, however, will have no effect on the ground while the United States continues to shield it diplomatically and militarily. Any attempts at mediation by states such as Qatar will amount to little. Living conditions in Gaza will likely worsen, as access to basic necessities such as water, food and education have become luxuries for the Palestinian people. Iran and Turkey will likely condemn the Israeli atrocities, however to little effect.

2024 demonstrated the power of social media, as boycott of Israeli products became widespread. Across the world, people showed their disillusionment with international organisations that vouch for humanity and liberty just as the people of Palestine were denied those. The majority will continue to express their concerns unless a solution not disenfranchising the Palestinians is reached.

Iran’s role in the Middle East will be crucial. Given the threat from Israel, Tehran will continue its efforts to maintain and increase its influence in the region. Although economic sanctions have been imposed on it by the West, Iran has good relations with Russia and China. For the US, Iran is likely to remain a sensitive issue, especially in light of its nuclear capability.

2024 demonstrated the power of social media, as boycott of Israeli products became widespread. People actively showed their disillusionment with international organisations that vouch for humanity, liberty and freedom when the people of Palestine were robbed of those.

Strategically speaking, Saudi Arabia could challenge Iran’s hegemonic ambitions by benefiting from Israeli presence. To that extent, the US-Saudi relationship will continue to prosper. The importance of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to increase and be highlighted. Thus, the Middle East will remain a strategic flashpoint, particularly in the aftermath of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.

Turkey seems to have benefited from Assad’s fall. Ankara had been supporting the opposition forces, most notably the Syrian National Army. For Iran and Hezbollah Assad had been a close ally. Iran’s axis of resistance had relied on Syria’s role as a valuable conduit to Hezbollah. Syria’s fate will likely continue to be influenced by regional actors.

Assad’s fall is a reminder of the consequences of suppressing public will. It underscores the importance of freedom of expression. Since Syrian poitics has long been marked by fragmentation, both internally and externally, it appears that the power struggles will continue to have a military dimension. As powerful countries such as Russia, US, and Turkey continue to partake in its fragmentation, hope for a united and free Syria is perhaps premature.

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election will have a huge impact on world politics this year. His tensions with the European Union, hostility towards China and disillusionment with international institutions could result in isolationist policies. China, in particular, is a crucial actor in international relations today. Its Belt and Road Initiative is likely to continue to expand across regions. For Trump’s US, China’s approach to global cooperation will repreent a major challenge. US-China geo-economic standoffs are likely to continue.

Notably, Trump has said he could move decisively to end the war in Ukraine. However, as matters stand, Russia appears determined not to yield much to the West on that front. More sanctions could be imposed on Russia. However, Moscow has remained resilient in the past with some support from countries like China and India. The Ukraine-Russia war is much more than a clash over territory.

Pakistan’s geostrategic location - bordering Afghanistan, India, Iran and China – will continue to keep it relevant to both China and the US. The US-backed liberal world order will continue to challenge the old alliances and forge new ones. It is not difficult to envisage a future where regionalism takes precedence over internationalism. Nonetheless, it is important to understand that international politics do not change on a whim. Major changes are mostly gradual and often painful. Major political developments in history have been a result of years of effort. For 2025 to be qualitatively different from 2024 will requires collaboration among major powers to ensure global peace and development.

Sofia Najeeb is a senior-year student and a research assistant at the Lahore School of Economics. She is pursuing a BS degree in political science.

Ejaz Hussain has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and a postdoc from University of California, Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor at Lahore School of Economics. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com.