Shadows of uncertainty

The financial cost of political unrest in Pakistan is substantial and multifaceted

Shadows of uncertainty


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akistan needs a synergy of sorts – a harmonious blend of political stability, space for intellectual and professional input and economic foresight – to truly unlock its potential. Political stability is more than a mere necessity; it is the very cornerstone for Pakistan’s economic prosperity, laying the groundwork for sustainable growth and development.

Political forces are mature enough to recognise that it is not merely the pursuit of power that holds significance; rather, it is their capacity to address and resolve the pressing issues at hand. This truly defines the strength and integrity of the political process. It is time for the major political parties to develop an economic think tank or adopt the practice of a shadow cabinet and build talent in our key ministries.

To achieve meaningful results, leaderships ought to surround themselves with skilled professionals who bring expertise and insight to the table. They need frameworks for macroeconomic management and reforms that they can implement once in the office. These essential ingredients have found little traction with the ruling parties for Pakistan to break free from its prolonged economic stagnation and join other nations in the region on the path towards zest and optimism.

It’s unfortunate that Pakistan has faced persistent political instability, significantly undermining its image and economic potential. The country has endured a rather unsettling political landscape marked by frequent protests, agitations, calls for civil disobedience movements and shifts in governance.

As political factions and those who hold sway, engage in blame games and power struggles, the pressing issues facing the populace remain unaddressed, further exacerbating social and economic challenges. One cannot help but reflect on how Pakistan’s capability has diminished with a heavy heart.

The emphasis on the cost of any ongoing event causing instability in Pakistan often highlights immediate financial losses. It is equally important to consider the long-term reputational damage to the country and the resulting unease of both domestic and foreign investors. Economic agents find themselves hesitant to commit resources or embark on new ventures amid fears of abrupt policy changes or social unrest. Pakistan’s declining investment to GDP ratio is now at 13 percent. Overtime, the pervasive uncertainty has compelled many individuals to shift their assets abroad or consider relocating altogether, further draining the economy of much-needed capital and talent.

In Pakistan, stability is particularly crucial for successfully completing the International Monetary Fund engagement and undertaking the fundamental work necessary to create a well-regulated market economy. It is essential for making the hard decisions required to revamp critical sectors such as energy, deregulation and divestment that serve as engines of growth and productivity. Regrettably, these initiatives have faltered in the absence of political coherence within the country, raising important questions about the broader implications of instability.

Moreover, stability is essential to empower provincial governments to play their part in improving social sector indicators, ensuring that all citizens benefit from economic progress. With approximately 25 million children out of school and the urgent need to create three million jobs for the youth entering the workforce each year, the stakes are higher than ever.

Shadows of uncertainty


Continuous political strife can erode trust in institutions and diminish social cohesion, further complicating recovery efforts. 

Authorities estimate that the latest round of street protests cost the country Rs 190 billion a day. The economic losses have been broken down into several dimensions, including daily GDP loss of Rs 144 billion; export losses of Rs 24 billion; dent in foreign direct investment with losses of around Rs 3 billion; and sectoral losses in agriculture and industrial sectors of about Rs 26 billion daily due to disruptions. These figures highlight the immediate financial impact of political unrest on the national economy, particularly as businesses shutter their doors and trade activities stall, leaving families uncertain about their livelihoods.

While these estimates paint a dire picture, government actions – such as preemptive road closures, internet shutdowns and law enforcement responses – also contribute to economic disruptions. These measures lead to further financial losses that extend beyond the immediate impact of protest activities. Economic costs are part of a larger cycle of instability that has long plagued Pakistan, leaving citizens weary and longing for stability.

Disruptions in supply chains due to protests can lead to shortages of essential goods, driving up prices and exacerbating inflation. Families struggle to make ends meet as basic necessities become increasingly unaffordable. Businesses affected by unrest may reduce their workforce or close entirely, resulting in higher unemployment rates. Each job loss represents not just a statistic but a family facing uncertainty. Continuous political strife can erode trust in institutions and diminish social cohesion, further complicating recovery efforts. In times of hardship, unity becomes essential; yet division threatens to tear communities apart.

The financial cost of political unrest in Pakistan is substantial and multifaceted. While official estimates suggest staggering daily losses, it is essential to consider the broader context of political instability and government actions that contribute to these figures. In an environment of uncertainty, the psychological and emotional scars can linger long after the unrest subsides, impacting not just individual well-being but the fabric of society itself. Moving forward, both the government and opposition parties must re-assess their strategies with empathy and foresight.

Constructive engagement will be critical for stabilising the economy and ensuring that the burdens of political unrest do not disproportionately affect ordinary citizens. Only through dialogue and compromise can Pakistan hope to transcend its current challenges and build a brighter future, where every citizen can dream without fear and work towards a prosperous tomorrow.

It is high time for feuding elites to set aside their differences and work on productive solutions for the prosperity of millions living in poverty, far away from the benefits of modern science, good health and quality life. Seven decades on, we are still struggling to complete the 24th IMF engagement in the hopes of consolidating macro stability in the country. We have seen nation after nation lifting millions out of poverty and transforming lives but find ourselves grappling with the challenge of crafting sustained and inclusive growth. We still have the chance to rewrite our story for the better.


The writer, an economist, has served as an advisor to the Ministry of Finance. He can be reached at khaqanhnajeeb@gmail.com. His X handle: @KhaqanNajeeb

Shadows of uncertainty