iscussing the critical importance of water as a resource in Pakistan will not require us to build our argument on the Malthusian theory. Pakistan’s collective water availability roughly amounts to 193 million acre feet (MAF), whereas the current requirement is 3.5–7 MAF.

The crises relate to equity, access and inter-sectoral distribution. Nevertheless, with the climate change in action, rising temperatures, melting glaciers, deforestation, exploding population and urban pollution, we may need to use statistical evidence of geometrical vs arithmetical growth and credit Malthus’s insights.

Is water, the lifeblood, scarce? Pakistan’s water resources are under siege from both natural and human-induced pressures. The nation’s dependence on the mighty Indus River system, once a source of abundance, now poses a significant challenge as climate change alters the delicate balance of this vital water source.

In a country where agriculture forms the backbone of the economy and supports the livelihoods of millions, the specter of water scarcity looms large. Pakistan’s water crisis is not a distant threat. It is a present reality. Per capita water availability has plummeted from 5,600 cubic metres in 1947 to an alarming 1,017 cubic metres in 2021. This precipitous decline places Pakistan perilously close to the 1,000 cubic metres water scarcity threshold set by the United Nations.

The melting of glaciers in Pakistan, often called the “third pole,” is accelerating at an alarming rate. While this initially leads to increased water flow, it portends a future of severe water scarcity once these natural reservoirs are depleted. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that many glaciers in this region could lose over 80 percent of their current mass by 2100 under high emission scenarios.

Changing monsoon patterns, floods like those seen in 2022, prolonged droughts and an obsolete distributary network are compounding this issue. Rising temperatures further exacerbate the water crisis, putting additional strain on already stressed water resources.

The World Bank estimates that climate change could depress the country’s GDP by 18-20 percent by 2050, with the agriculture sector bearing the brunt of this impact. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources had warned in 2016 that with the current growth rates in population and declining water resources, the country would cross the threshold for absolute water-scarcity (annual per capita water availability of 500 m³) by 2025.

Scientific evidence has proved that water resource development and governance have influenced water security. Poor and outdated management practices have aggravated the water crisis. Such mismanagement results in low water productivity in all sectors, including agriculture, domestic and industrial.

Agriculture, covering 30.5 million hectares, about 47 percent of the national land (higher than the global 38 percent), constitutes 24 percent of our GDP and is the largest foreign exchange resource. Famers constitute 48 percent of our labour. 68 percent of them are women working in the fields. Lacking education and resources, the farmers are largely dependent on middlemen and landowners for any productive gains out of their labour. Their practices, mostly archaic and labour intensive, have resulted in low on exports, reduced yields and looming food and water scarcity.

Scientific evidence has shown that water resource development and governance have influenced water security. Poor and outdated management practices have aggravated the water crisis. Such mismanagement results in low water productivity. 

Reaching out to these millions of skilled workers in our fields should be a priority if we wish to lay out a sustainable framework. Educated farmers are the quickest route out of this quagmire. We need to educate the farmers; install infrastructure that enables consistent and continuous access to knowledge, support and finance; and transform farms into business entities of which the farmers, being the mainstay, derive the most benefit.

On the education front, water conservation and management top the list for now. Zarai’s Dera model is a comprehensive one-stop solution that addresses the needs of the farmers, including the dissemination of advisory on enhancing water and fertiliser use efficiencies to enhance productivity. Through these centres, Zarai Services reach farmers, sharing knowledge, providing financial and value-added mechanisation support and ensuring a well-structured value and supply chain. This is a powerful approach to increasing agricultural productivity.

The agriculture sector, consuming over 90 percent of Pakistan’s water resources, requires urgent modernising of its irrigation systems. The shift from flood irrigation to more efficient methods like drip and sprinkler irrigation could save billions of cubic metres of water annually.

Ongoing projects such as the Watercourse Improvement Programme are steps in the right direction but need to be significantly scaled up. Similarly, rainwater harvesting, particularly in water-stressed regions, could help capture monsoon rains that often go to waste or cause flooding. The introduction of drought-resistant crop varieties can help maintain productivity even as water availability fluctuates.

Effective water management is as much about governance as it is about technology and infrastructure. Pakistan’s National Water Policy of 2018 provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the country’s water challenges. However, implementation remains a significant hurdle. Strengthening institutional capacities, improving coordination between federal and provincial governments and ensuring adequate funding for water projects are crucial steps.

Looking ahead, the challenges facing Pakistan’s water sector are daunting but not insurmountable. Climate projections suggest that by 2050, Pakistan could face more frequent and intense droughts, particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions. Driven by population growth, urbanisation and economic development, the country’s water demand is expected to increase by 55-70 percent by 2047.

Meeting these challenges will require a paradigm shift in how water is valued, managed and used in Pakistan. Adaptive water management strategies that can respond flexibly to changing climatic conditions will be crucial. This might involve developing climate-resilient water infrastructure, implementing dynamic water allocation systems and continually updating water management plans based on the latest climate science.

The time for action is now. Every drop saved, every innovation implemented and every policy enforced can take Pakistan one step closer to a sustainable water future.

The author is an educationist, writer and corporate host. She can be reached at Shahatariq67@gmail.com