he recent developments in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham HTS) formerly an Al Qaeda affiliate have brought drastic shifts to the country’s political, socio-economic and strategic landscape, culminating in regime change in terms of the exit of former president Bashar al-Assad. His removal is deeply rooted in the structural weaknesses of the regime. The process had been unfolding since the Arab Spring. Assad had managed to survive it initially by leveraging the state’s military apparatus and securing external support particularly from Russia and Iran. Nonetheless, the protracted civil war and international sanctions eroded the regime’s capacity to govern effectively. The Syrian economy has suffered catastrophic losses in terms of high inflation, unemployment and extreme poverty. Poor domestic variables compelled the regime to rely overwhelmingly on external support such as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the Russian military. The latter had established a couple of bases in northwestern part of Syria.

The regime’s overall incapacity and incompetence were strategically exploited by the HTS. The latter gained significant traction by presenting itself as a unifying force, with a coherent vision for rebuilding Syria. Through strategic alliances with regional actors, particularly Turkey and the Gulf states, and by securing advanced weaponry, the HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, orchestrated a series of military and political maneuvers that overwhelmed the remnants of the Arab Syrian Army of the exiled president.

Assad’s departure from Syria followed a series of rapid defeats in strategic cities, i.e. Aleppo and Hama, where the HTS implemented a hybrid strategy of urban guerrilla warfare and negotiations with local factions. The regime’s inability to replenish its military ranks and the erosion of its regional support, due largely to the ongoing Gaza war, left Assad with no viable options. His flight marked the transition to the HTS rule. The latter has claimed control over Damascus and is consolidating its authority over Syria’s fragmented political and military landscape.

Jolani-led HTS’s strategy to deal with the Arab Syrian Army and rival factions reflects a blend of pragmatism and coercion. Recognising that prolonged conflict could further destabilise the country, the HTS has offered amnesty to soldiers and low-rank officers, thus weakening the core of Assad loyalists. Simultaneously, it has engaged in targeted operations against remnants of extremist groups such as the ISIS and Al-Nusra Front. In other words, the HTS has pursued a combination of negotiations and selective military pressure, with the aim to foster short-term alliances to, on the one hand, prevent further fragmentation and, on the other, to consolidate new regime’s hold politically and socially.

However, Israel’s military actions in Syria have added a layer of complexity to the emerging order. The IDF has been conducting airstrikes on Iranian military installations and Hezbollah positions in Syria for years, citing concerns over Tehran’s entrenchment along its northern border. The current turmoil has intensified these operations, as Tel Aviv seeks to preempt potential resurgence of Iranian influence under the new Syrian leadership. For the first time in 50 years, Israel has launched airstrikes at military targets across Syria and deployed ground troops both into and beyond the demilitarised buffer zone. Its troops have seized more territory in Syrian-controlled areas of the Golan Heights. Israeli military has warned Syrians living in five villages close to the Israeli-occupied portion of the strategic area to “stay home.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hailed the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime as “a new and dramatic chapter.” “The collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result of the severe blows with which we have struck Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran,” he said during a rare press conference. “The axis has not yet disappeared but as I promised – we are changing the face of the Middle East.”

The Israeli military says it has carried out about 480 strikes across the country after the fall of Assad, hitting most of Syria’s strategic weapon stockpiles. Defence Minister Israel Katz has said the Israeli navy has destroyed Syrian fleet. Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hailed the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime as “a new and dramatic chapter.” “The collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result of the severe blows with which we have struck Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran,” he said during a press conference. “The axis has not yet disappeared but as I promised – we are changing the face of the Middle East.”

As far as global response to Syrian chaos is concerned, the United States has mainly focused on containing the spillover, emphasising counter-terrorism and humanitarian assistance while maintaining its military presence in northeastern Syria. In addition, the US has expressed cautious optimism about the HTS, However, it remains wary of the potential for extremist elements within the coalition. Russia, on the other hand, finds itself in a precarious position. Having hosted Assad, Moscow appears to be recalibrating its strategy to engage with the HTS. It may also find it difficult to keep its military bases in Syria operational.

Like the US, the European Union has focused on the humanitarian crisis. It has urged all parties to adhere to international law and human rights conventions. While supportive of a political transition, the EU has been cautious on directly engaging with the THS, awaiting solid signals of its long-term viability as Syria’s new dispensation. China has refrained from taking an active role. However, Beijing is ensuring the safety of its citizens in Syria.

Syria’s neighbours are recalibrating their strategies, too. Turkey, a key backer of the HTS, is positioning itself as a dominant player in shaping Syria’s political future. Iran, meanwhile, faces the dual challenge of losing Assad as a strategic ally and fending off Israeli attacks on its assets. The Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, see an opportunity to counter Iran’s influence while strengthening their ties with the HTS. Iraq, already facing internal security challenges, is wary of spillovers that could exacerbate sectarian tensions.

The coming weeks are likely to witness intensified jockeying for influence among regional and global powers. The Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham’s ability to consolidate control and present a cohesive governance model will be critical in determining Syria’s future. Nonetheless, the potential for renewed clashes between Israel and Iranian-backed militias, coupled with the risk of extremist groups exploiting the power vacuum, poses significant challenges to Syrian as well as regional stability. The United Nations may emerge as a platform for negotiating Syria’s political future. Its success will depend on the willingness of key stakeholders to compromise.

Syria is passing through another chaotic phase. It remains to be seen whether the HTS-led political and socioeconomic order will be democratically pluralistic and egalitarian. Another perplexing question for the Jolani-led forces is whether Syria, under the new regime, will be able to protect its sovereignty, especially against Israeli aggression.

The writer has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and a post-doc from University of California, Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor at Lahore School of Economics. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com