In the 1980s, when Ronald Reagan was president of the United States, he had what was called a Teflon factor—the ability to shrug away any criticism of him. In recent times, Donald Trump stands out as the most prominent personality exhibiting the same trait. During his first presidency, he was castigated by the media and liberals. He became the only president in the US history to have been impeached twice. In 2024, like in 2016, Donald Trump flouted odds and survey polls to clinch the presidency. After President Grover Cleveland, he is going to be the only president in the US history to return to the White House after having been defeated in an election to complete non-consecutive terms. He is the only president in modern history to win the presidency despite having been convicted by a US court. After the US Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade, liberals believed in a surge of women vote against him. He was reported to have been deserted by more than 60 percent of women voters. The former leadership from Clinton to Obama either openly supported Kamala Harris or refused to endorse Donald Trump. More than 200 prominent Republicans, including Liz Cheney, endorsed Kamala Harris for presidency. His chaotic record on the Covid-19 crisis haunted millions of Americans. His anti-immigration policy was criticised for being a divisive strategy, leaving thousands of families separated from their children. Some of his former associates and subordinates declared him fascist, unpredictable, whimsical and unfit to govern the country. Still, Trump has reclaimed the leadership of the United States.

What made this historical win possible? It’s the economy, stupid.

In 1992, Bill Clinton became president by taking advantage of economic recession and a prominent third candidate, Ross Perot. This time, Donald Trump won the election because of two important reasons. One, despite the fact that economic performance of the United States has been resounding during the Biden administration, inflation has taken a huge toll on many Americans. From eggs to milk, gas prices to prescription drugs and insurance costs, Americans have seen their improved income draining from their bank accounts. Grocery bills have risen by more than 50 percent. Clean energy projects have not lowered the electricity bills. The housing market has suffered as interest rates have become unaffordable. Inflation has outpaced wage growth, meaning that even with salary increases, many Americans have felt poorer as their purchasing power has declined. Car loans and credit card bills are hurting many Americans.

Second, immigration has become the most significant topic in America. This favoured Trump over Harris. Historically, the United States has seen waves of immigrants coming from different parts of the world. Since the 1990s, the United States has undergone two huge transformations in its demographic composition. Asians, and particularly South Asians, along with South Americans, have become the most significant newcomers. The white population in the United States, on the other hand, has been shrinking (they were more than 70 percent in 1980 but now have declined to less than 58 percent). More importantly, the white population, particularly those without a college degree, have been the losers in the ongoing technological and economic transformation in the country. Asians, meanwhile, stand out among winners.

According to a recent report by The New York Times, Asians have seen 40 a percent increase in their income during the last 40 years. All other racial groups have lost their share in this new wealth. However, the whites, the whites without a college degree in particular, have gone from being the most prominent winner to becoming the most prominent losers; their share in new wealth has declined from 38 percent to only 18 percent. High-wage jobs in medicine and technology have gone to Asians. The unskilled labour has been claimed by illegal immigrants, leaving the white population in a lower socioeconomic stratum. This disgruntled segment of the society has taken Trump’s message of economic meltdown, inflation and massive illegal immigration to its heart and voted for him. It is the vote of a wounded nationalism and resurgent racism in America that has spoken for Donald Trump. Therefore, it is expected that his administration will initiate a mass deportation of illegal immigrants from the United States.

The American Immigration Council estimates that the cost of deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants will come to at least $415 billion. The total money required to arrest, detain, process and deport more than 13 million illegal immigrants, the Council estimates, is $967.9 billion. It will require more than a decade of uninterrupted work. Donald Trump says that it is a cost the United States can and will pay to reverse the demographic trends in the country and assuage the concerns of the white population.

It is the vote of wounded nationalism and resurgent racism in America that has spoken for Donald Trump. Therefore, it is expected that his administration will initiate a mass deportation of illegal immigrants from the United States.

Trump is also expected to bring the energy prices down by allowing drilling on federal lands. He will also try to revive American industrial production. However, scholars have long warned that any such move will devastate American global economic hegemony.

Donald Trump’s unexpected rise to victory has shattered political norms and set the stage for a new era of bold, unpredictable leadership on the world stage. There is no doubt about what he wishes to achieve. First, the United States will change its policy on the Ukraine war, abandoning Kyiv and acknowledging Moscow’s national security questions. This will push the former to concede important territories to the latter. This may give President Putin an edge to reclaim hegemonic status for Russia and a possible revival of the USSR minus Central Asian Republics and the Baltic States. The appeasement, however, may not end there. It may result in a revival of European security questions, similar to those leading to the World Wars in the 20th Century. The establishment of NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine is an effort to remove any derailment of the United States in Russia-Ukraine War. The Biden Administration has already given $175 billion to Ukraine, beside the $50 billion provided by the European countries. To build a security structure independent of US, European countries have hugely increased their defence budgets and weapon production capacities. In January 2020, before he left the White House, then President Trump told Europeans that the United States won’t help them if they were attacked (by Russia). He conditioned US commitment to NATO to member states meeting their 2 percent of GDP allocation to defence. In 2020, only three European nations met this condition. Today, 23 NATO members have met this condition. However, they are still unsure about Trump’s commitment to European security.

In the Middle East, Donald Trump will revive his peace process through Abraham Accords. He is expected to end the Gaza war, establish a small Palestinian state and broker a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, thus initiating an inexorable process of recognition and acknowledgement of the state of Israel by Muslim countries. The Trump administration will seek to isolate Iran and encourage a regime change in Tehran.

Donald Trump may start a new trade war with China by imposing high tariffs but may assuage Chinese security questions by tolerating Chinese claim over Taiwan. The precarious nature of international security in South China Sea means that the United States will have to strengthen its defence relationship with the QUAD—the US grouping with Australia, India, and Japan. To frustrate Chinese security policy in the Southeast Asian region, the US could re-initiate a dialogue with North Korea.

Improved relations with the Taliban regime in Kabul will be hugely consequential. Trump will expect a more friendly Russia to acquiesce in the building of gas and oil pipelines from Central Asia to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Turkmenistan and Afghanistan have already started work on a 150-km portion from Galkynysh gas field of Turkmenistan to the Afghan city of Herat. American corporate and political involvement in this and other energy projects cannot be ruled out. Through such projects, Trump administration may try to checkmate Chinese involvement in Central Asian energy politics and isolate Iran.

Among Pakistani politicians, Donald Trump is said to know only Imran Khan, some say, ‘personally.’ The Pakistani diaspora in the United States supported his return to the White House whereas Indian Americans supported Kamala Harris overwhelmingly. Unlike 2016 elections, Muslim support to Donald Trump was evident and a primary factor in his victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania and some other states—something he acknowledged in his victory speech. Some Pakistani Americans believe that Trump will support democracy and human rights in Pakistan; will facilitate Imran Khan’s return to politics; and may broker a dialogue on Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

If Donald Trump wants the Muslim world to recognise the state of Israel, he needs to start with ending the war in Gaza and establishing a Palestinian state. To resolve the Kashmir dispute, he needs to address security concerns of both India and Pakistan. To build lasting peace in the Middle East and South Asia, Trump will need the support of popular leaders like Imran Khan. There is a golden chance for Pakistan to institutionalise its relations with the United States by participating in the processes aimed at a global security reset.

The writer is a professor of government at Houston Community College, USA. He recently published his book The Rise of the Semi-Core: China, India, and Pakistan in the World-System. He can be reached at suklashari@gmail.com