onald Trump’s return to the White House will disrupt and delay global climate diplomacy. It will complicate but not destroy the global transition to decarbonisation and efforts aimed at climate resilience and sustainability. He has announced his intention to undo the climate actions taken by the Biden Administration and intensify green technology divide with China. This ‘America First’ win is a stunning success for climate change deniers who have always dismissed the climate crisis as a hoax.

Climate change was a less prominent issue in the 2024 US presidential election compared to the previous cycle. Recent extreme weather events in the US linked to climate change did not alter the campaign focus. Despite major hurricanes hitting several states in September and October 2024, causing widespread damage and loss of life, climate change did not emerge as a central campaign issue.

First executive orders on climate change by the new administration are expected to include withdrawal from global climate commitments; reversing renewable energy incentives by scaling back or eliminating incentives established during the Biden administration; dismantling existing regulations; promoting fossil fuel production by lifting restrictions on oil and gas drilling on public land; and cutting climate funding that supported developing countries in their climate efforts.

Donald Trump has announced to cancel mandates for electric vehicles and eliminate the EPA’s Clean Power Plan. His administration is expected to roll back environmental regulations, including those on methane emissions and drilling permits, which could lower production costs for fossil fuels and make them more competitive against clean energy alternatives. Such an action will be a set-back for the renewable energy trends as these could potentially make investing in fossil fuel projects more attractive compared to low-carbon alternatives.

For the purposes of comparison, Kamala Harris was expected to build upon the Inflation Reduction Act that had provided around $370 billion for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2030 by promoting renewable energy, expanding clean energy infrastructure and modernising the electric grid. The objective was to advance environmental justice by protecting public land and public health, increasing resilience to climate disasters, creating several million new clean energy jobs and holding polluters accountable to secure clean air and water for all.

In voter priorities, climate change took a backseat in this election cycle. Only 37 percent of registered voters said climate change was “very important” to their vote, according to a Pew Research Centre survey. There were, however, significant differences between supporters of each candidate: 62 percent of Harris supporters said climate change was very important to their vote, compared to just 11 percent of Trump supporters. For Harris voters, climate change ranked in their top five major ballot issues.

The new policies will inevitably shift leadership on climate issues from the US to China, the EU and the UK, challenging them to fill the void left by a less cooperative US engagement.

Trump global climate impact

The new policies will inevitably shift leadership on climate issues from the US to China, the EU and the UK, challenging them to fill the void left by a less cooperative US engagement. In response to US withdrawal, they may ramp up domestic policies aimed at reducing emissions and promoting green technologies. This could include greater investments in renewable energy infrastructure and incentives for businesses to adopt sustainable practices.

At minimum, they will maintain their national climate goals. We can expect to see statements at the COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, plenaries reaffirming their commitment to the Paris Agreement and emphasising the importance of collective action. The world will express disappointment, even anger, at the US decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, similar to their reactions during Trump’s first withdrawal.

It will become evident during COP29 next week where the American delegation will attempt to hold and delay every substantive decision. There is some speculation that some countries are considering to obstruct the US withdrawal process, arguing that international agreements should not be unilaterally abandoned. Further, the EU could implement carbon border taxes on imports from the US to mitigate competitive disadvantages for European industries adhering to stricter environmental standards. This would be a dual-edge sword as it would serve as both a punitive measure and an incentive for cleaner production practices.

Pakistan and other vulnerable countries would view it as a setback for global climate efforts and a breach of trust in international cooperation. The EU, the UK and China may strengthen their own commitments and collaborate more closely with developing countries like Pakistan to ensure progress on climate issues. In fact, they would likely position themselves as leaders in global climate diplomacy, underlining commitment to the Paris Agreement.

Donald Trump’s win will almost certainly contribute to increased trade tensions as the administration is expected to pursue aggressive trade policies against China, including high tariffs by revoking China’s most-favoured-nation status. Trump has proposed imposing a 60 percent blanket tariff on all Chinese imports that will severely disrupt the global clean energy market. Such tariffs could make solar PVs and other clean technologies more expensive in the US, potentially slowing domestic decarbonisation and creating uncertainty in the global clean energy market, eventually slowing investments in renewable technologies worldwide.

Analysts believe that Trump will strive for decoupling of the US and Chinese economies. This shift could create parallel ecosystems where both countries compete for dominance in green technologies rather than collaborating to address climate change. This competitive nature of relationship may extend beyond trade and economics to military engagements and geopolitical strategies affecting countries like Pakistan. Increased military action could heighten tensions further, complicating any potential collaboration on climate initiatives.

Finally, while Trump’s policies could slow the pace of energy transition, they are unlikely to completely derail efforts to decarbonise the American economy, as several US states and corporations will continue to pursue clean energy goals, partially offsetting the impact of Trump’s policies. Market fundamentals and investments will continue to drive clean energy growth despite policy changes in Washington. The fundamental challenge for Pakistan and other developing counties will remain unchanged: how to scale-up climate finance for adaptation and climate resilience.

The writer is an Islamabad-based expert on climate change and water governance.

He can be reached at atauqeersheuikh@gmail.com