uring the past week, many supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf regained some of their lost optimism due essentially to two ‘developments.’ First, some PTI leaders claimed to have struck a deal with influential quarters; and second, there was a perception that that the US president-elect, Donald Trump, may be willing to press the Pakistani government to ensure Imran Khan’s release from jail.

However, swift legislation to extend the tenure of the three service chiefs from three to five years, which extended Army chief Gen Syed Asim Munir’s service by nearly a year, has dampened their spirits. The sentiment in the PTI camp currently is a complex mix of hope, frustration and confusion.

The optimism for Khan’s release was at its peak before the passing of the 26th Amendment. Some people had convinced themselves that this would pave the way for Justice Mansoor Ali Shah’s appointment as chief justice of Pakistan and eventually an early exit for the ruling coalition. However, once the amendment was passed, Justice Yahya Afridi was appointed instead. The PTI tried initially to rally bar councils against the appointment by indirectly criticising the amendment. However, it received only limited support in this. PTI stalwart Hamid Khan, known for his influence in the legal community, managed to enlist support of the Lahore High Court Bar Association. The LHCBA then held a convention where they decided to launch a movement against the 26th Constitutional Amendment.

Hopes rose further in the PTI camp after some of the party leaders claimed to have re-established contact with the establishment. These claims seemed to have received validation when Bushra Bibi, Khan’s spouse, was released on court orders. There was a strong impression in the PTI ranks that Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur had effectively engaged the establishment. It was claimed that the release was a confidence-building measure and a goodwill gesture from the powerful quarters.

Key PTI leaders including Asad Qaiser, Gohar Ali Khan and Omar Ayub dismissed this notion, however, asserting that no negotiation was under way between the PTI and the establishment. However, in a TV interview, Muhammad Ali Saif, an advisor to the KP chief minister, hinted at ongoing talks, saying, “The establishment is a key player in Pakistan’s political system. The PTI seeks to build an understanding with it and other political players, including the federal government, to strengthen democracy and secure the release of Imran Khan and other PTI leaders.”

He said the PTI was open to and would welcome an opportunity to engage in talks with the establishment. He emphasised also that these talks would not focus on striking a deal. Rather, the aim would be the restoration of democratic values and rights in the country. “In my opinion, the current understanding among the PTI, the establishment and other stakeholders arises from the realisation that neither Imran Khan nor his supporters have wavered despite the pressure brought against them.”

Hopes rose further after some party leaders claimed that they had re-established contact with the establishment. These claims seemed to have received a validation when Bushra Bibi, Khan’s spouse, was released following court orders. There was a strong impression in the PTI ranks that Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur has effectively engaged the establishment.

Saif noted that no new cases had been filed against Bushra Bibi following her release, suggesting a mutual understanding.

Still, most PTI leaders say they are unaware of any negotiations. For now, they are organising a significant march in Islamabad, planned for the third week of November. “We have been directed by the top leadership to start preparing for a big sit-in in Islamabad this month,” a PTI leader said.

Meanwhile, PTI leaders, including Imran Khan—who previously had accused the US of supporting a no-confidence motion against his government and labeled his opponents as US agents — are now happy about Donald Trump’s recent victory. Trump’s return to the White House is being viewed as a favourable sign for Khan’s release and the party’s future. Shortly after Trump declared victory, a congratulatory message was posted on Khan’s official social media account.

Ali Muhammad Khan, a prominent PTI leader, said, “Imran Khan was quite pleased over Trump’s win. He believes that the US administration will now adopt a neutral stance.”

Zulfi Bukhari, a close associate of Khan’s, has also congratulated Trump through social media. He has said that he is in contact with Trump’s team and and plans to discuss Khan’s release and human rights concerns in Pakistan.

PML-N’s Rana Sanaullah shared an intriguing perspective during a television interview, remarking, “If the US requests Imran Khan’s release, we will demand Aafia Siddiqui’s in return.” However, Defence Minister Khwaja Asif downplayed the likelihood of Trump advocating for Khan’s release.

The prospect of negotiations between the PTI and the establishment may seem plausible given the current situation. A key factor is the recent extension of service chiefs’ tenures. The PTI, which earlier launched an intensive social media campaign against the army chief, possibly hoping to force his resignation through political pressure, appears to have concluded that he will remain in his role for the next four years. The government passed the tenure-extension bill with surprising speed and without debate in both houses of the parliament, prompting criticism and scepticism among independent analysts. Such swift legislation can foster negative perceptions. The underlying intent in this case appeared to be obstructing the PTI’s path.

Meanwhile, the establishment has seemingly realised that the government and other stakeholders have struggled to significantly erode the PTI’s support base. Imran Khan has remained steadfast in his stance and all attempts to sway him have proved ineffective. A dialogue between the PTI and the establishment could be beneficial for the country if it also includes other political stakeholders, particularly the PML-N, the PPP and the JUI-F.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher