ith only a few days to go, the US presidential elections have caught the world’s attention. Global public interest in these elections has increased significantly over the last two decades, thanks to the communication revolution.

For Pakistan, relations with Washington are crucial. The United States is the top destination of Pakistani exports. Pakistan’s economy and strategic strength are dependent on support from the United States. According to the foreignassistance.gov website, during the 2001-21 war in Afghanistan, the United States provided more than $18 billion in military and economic assistance.

In the year 2010, at the height of the so-called War on Terror, the aid was worth more than $2.6 billion. Once the war wound down, the aid diminished to negligible levels. In the year 2023, the United States aid to Pakistan amounted to $170 million. This decline in support is nothing new. Pakistan’s relations with the United States have been mostly transactional and framed within the strategic order in the region and beyond. In the early 1980s, during the first Afghan war, the aid went up as Islamabad provided crucial support to the West to defeat the Soviet Union. Once the war ended, Pakistan had to deal with the Pressler Amendment. Since the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, the war theatre has moved to the Middle East. The economic repercussions of this shift are a significant concern for Islamabad.

Ahead of the 2012 election, Pakistan was one of the major topics in the US. Policymakers, political pundits and security analysts debated the ‘commitment’ of the security and political establishment in Islamabad and its role in the US-led war in Afghanistan. The Quetta Shura and Taliban hideouts in the border regions, enabling Haqqani Network to continue its resistance against the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan were mentioned. Given that Osama bin Laden had been tracked and killed in Abbottabad, Washington was wary of Islamabad’s strategic priorities in Afghanistan and its implications around the globe. When Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections, he publicly accused Islamabad of having a deceitful role in Afghanistan and argued against security and development aid to Pakistan. Whereas in 2016 Pakistan had received more than $788 million in aid, the amount declined to $196 million in 2020.

The Kamala Harris campaign seems to be losing momentum. However, the race is too close to call. In each of the seven battleground states, the forecast margin of victory is less than 50,000 votes. With such a narrow margin, the country risks slipping into a repeat of 2020 elections.

One takeaway from the 2020 crisis was the constitutional resilience. It is hoped therefore that the country will again witness an orderly transfer to the next president. If Harris wins the race, she is going to be first female leader of the country. Her world view is starkly different from Presidents Obama and Biden. She is more likely to focus on domestic issues; try to end the immigration crisis through bipartisan legislative action; and try to lift the lower middle out of its struggle with inflation and unprecedented income and economic inequality in the country. She might work on transforming energy outlook by investing in green energy initiatives and redefine socioeconomic policies of the federal government. On the international front, she will face challenges in the Middle East and Europe. The precarious nature of world peace aside, Pakistan’s utility in the Russia-Ukraine war is negligible. If violence in the Middle East spreads, Pakistani military may be called upon to defend Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan’s relations with the United States have been mostly transactional and framed within the strategic order in the region and beyond. In the early1980s, during the first Afghan war, the bilateral assistance went up as Islamabad provided crucial support to the West to defeat the Soviet Union.

A Trump victory will change several things in US policy. On the domestic front, he has promised to initiate “the largest mass deportation of illegal immigrants from the United States.” Most of these immigrants are from Mexico and South American countries. India is now the third most prominent country of origin of people crossing US-Mexico and US-Canada borders into the United States. A mass deportation of these immigrants working in agriculture and food industry, could cost more than $1.7 trillion to the US economy.

Analysts close to the liberal view are warning that Donald Trump will abandon Ukraine, befriend Russia, end US security guarantees in Europe and start a Cold War against China. He may also be urged to checkmate Iran in case of a war with Israel. None of these will require a functional alliance with Pakistan.

On the other hand, India is likely to get more attention from the new US leadership. During his first term, Trump criticised India’s role in the US economy and reduced H1B visas for international skilled workers, 80 percent of which used to be Indians. He could repeat the action if he gets elected. However, India will find him willing to address New Delhi’s security questions vis-à-vis Beijing. On the other, Harris, who finds widespread support in US-Indian community domestically is likely to address its immigration problems. Internationally, she will support India on most issues including its quest for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, Kashmir and a new security arrangement in the Indian Ocean.

If Harris wins, she will be expected to push for greater democratisation in Pakistan. Trump, too, has spoken a few times with the Pakistani community and promised to address their concerns about the ongoing political crisis in Pakistan. PAKPAC, the most influential lobbying organisation of Pakistani diaspora, has publicly endorsed Trump. PAKPAC leaders say that his victory will result in greater pressure from Washington for the release of the former prime minister and the initiation of a political dialogue to settle the on-going political crisis in the country.

The writer is a professor of government at Houston Community College, USA. He recently published his book The Rise of the Semi-Core: China, India, and Pakistan in the World-System. He can be approached at suklashari@gmail.com