Navigating fault lines

Despite its high ambitions, the SCO has to deal with internal discord that threatens its cohesion

Navigating  fault lines


T

he Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is a significant cross-regional bloc founded by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Over the years, it has expanded to include India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus, representing nearly half of the world’s population and a substantial portion of the global GDP. The SCO’s scope encompasses regional security, economic cooperation and cultural exchange, with a focus on combating terrorism, separatism, and extremism—the “three evils” identified in its charter.

Historically, the SCO has convened annual summits to address pressing regional issues. Past priorities have included enhancing security cooperation, fostering economic collaboration and promoting regional stability. The summit, hosted in Islamabad this week, focused on combating terrorism, fostering economic cooperation and addressing climate change. Leveraging its strategic location, Pakistan aims to facilitate regional trade partnerships while promoting sustainable peace and prosperity among SCO member states.

Despite its high ambitions, the SCO has struggled to address the internal fault lines that threaten its cohesion. A major source of tension is the long-standing rivalry between India and Pakistan. Contentious issues such as the dispute over Kashmir, allegations of cross-border terrorism and India’s revocation of Article 370—which had granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir—have deepened mistrust between the two nations. India’s opposition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which it claims, passes through “disputed territories,” adds another layer of complexity. These geopolitical tensions mirror challenges that have previously paralysed regional bodies like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, raising concerns about their potential impact on the SCO’s effectiveness. Furthermore, India’s growing alignment with Western-led initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue contrasts with the anti-West stance of China and Russia within the SCO. Such divergences create competing priorities and complicate consensus-building within the organisation.

Despite these fault lines, the SCO presents significant opportunities for regional integration and cooperation. Pakistan aims to play a facilitating role in shaping the future of regional commerce and trade partnerships. By advocating for the expansion of infrastructure projects like the CPEC and the BRI, Pakistan seeks to enhance connectivity and economic integration across Eurasia. The SCO also provides a platform for member states to collaborate on addressing shared challenges such as climate change, poverty alleviation and counterterrorism. Strong leadership from China and Russia offers stability, preventing individual disputes from derailing collective initiatives entirely. This dynamic allows the SCO to function as a forum where member states can engage in dialogue, manage tensions and pursue shared interests despite underlying conflicts.

The SCO-CHG summit yielded several significant outcomes. Pakistan, as the host nation, emphasised the need for greater regional connectivity and economic collaboration. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif urged member states to focus on infrastructure development through initiatives like the BRI, the CPEC and the International North-South Transport Corridor. The summit endorsed strategies for energy cooperation and discussed establishing an alternative development funding mechanism to revive stalled projects. Environmental cooperation emerged as a key priority, with Pakistan calling for joint disaster preparedness efforts in light of the devastating floods it experienced in 2022. The summit also highlighted the importance of a stable Afghanistan for regional prosperity, with calls for humanitarian support coupled with expectations of political inclusivity from the Afghan interim government.

In the absence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India was represented by its external affairs minister, S Jaishankar, who raised concerns over terrorism and cross-border extremism, indirectly criticising Pakistan. Pakistan, however, refrained from engaging in direct confrontation, aiming to ensure the summit’s success and maintain focus on shared objectives. As the summit concluded, Pakistan handed over the chairmanship of the SCO Council of Heads of Government to Russia, marking a continuation of collaborative efforts within the organisation.

Given the geopolitical tensions and internal challenges, the SCO’s overall goals are quite ambitious. There are significant obstacles for Pakistan to overcome before it can fully achieve its objectives within the organisation. To achieve its goals, Pakistan must address several critical prerequisites: stabilising Afghanistan through active diplomatic engagement and preventing its soil from being used for terrorism; upgrading road transport, rail and digital infrastructure to advance the second phase of the CPEC; and integrating with other regional initiatives.

Additionally, Pakistan needs to build its disaster preparedness capacity, address climate-related vulnerabilities, promote the use of mutual currencies for trade settlements and strengthen internal security to combat terrorism, extremism and separatism. Successfully navigating these complex regional dynamics, implementing necessary internal reforms and fostering cooperation with other SCO member states despite existing fault lines will be essential for Pakistan to fully capitalise on the opportunities presented by the SCO and achieve its strategic objectives.


The writer is a tenured associate professor and head of the Department of Economics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus

Navigating fault lines