n July 21, President Joe Biden announced withdrawal of his candidature for the upcoming elections. His age, health issues and the rise of populist stance of former president Trump made him decide to let Vice President Kamala Harris run instead. The race is very competitive with no candidate assured of victory. According to the latest surveys, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is holding a narrow lead in 54 out of 100 simulations, making it a virtual toss-up. The polling averages in crucial battleground states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are within a margin of two percentage points, indicating that small shifts in voter sentiment could decisively impact the outcome. The razor-thin margin means that both candidates must focus their resources heavily on these swing states, as winning these could be pivotal for securing the presidency.

The most significant issues driving American presidential elections include immigration and women’s reproductive rights. According to Pew Research, however, the economy remains the most crucial issue for voters, with about 81 percent considering it a top priority for their voting decision. This is especially true for Trump supporters, who overwhelmingly prioritise economic concerns (93 percent), followed by immigration (82 percent) and violent crime (76 percent). For Harris supporters, the top issues are healthcare (76 percent), Supreme Court appointments (73 percent), nd reproductive rights (67 percent). The difference in priorities highlights the deep cultural divide in the electorate, often referred to as a “culture war.”

The increasing polarisation of issues in America shows the deepening nature of faultlines. Former president Trump has been an iconic figure of co-opting Tea Party Movement and MAGA movement, thus pushing the party composition to the conservative side. The Democratic Party, on the other, has been influenced by the rise of Bernie Sanders and his socialist agenda, Black Lives Matter, #MeToo Movement and the Supreme Court decisions restricting women’s abortion rights and affirmative action in higher education admissions. The political temperature is running high and both sides are unwilling to show any sign of moderation. The political division is so omnipresent that it has been called ‘the Great Divide. As many as 56 percent of Republicans see Democrats as unpatriotic; 47 percent of Democrats view Republicans in the same poor light. These attitudes are intertwined with broader sentiments of disillusionment and negativity. When Americans were asked to describe the state of US politics today, a staggering 79 percent described it with negative terms such as “divisive,” “corrupt,” “chaotic” and “broken.”

Former president Trump has refused to assure American people that he would accept the outcome of 2024 elections. In 2020, when he lost to Joe Biden, he refused to accept defeat. This led to the January 6 attack on the Capitol. In an increasingly polarising society, such refusal is significant. According to latest surveys, approximately 73 percent of American voters are worried about the potential for political violence following the election. This concern spans across the political spectrum, with 92 percent of liberals, 68 percent of moderates, and 63 percent of conservatives worrying that violence may erupt if the election results are contested. If it slips into a widespread violence, America may undergo a long and painful social disruption and division.

The geneses

Some Republican voters worry that America has undergone a huge demographic change so that the White population is under credible threat of becoming a minority. More than 80 percent of the population was white in the 1960s. The fraction has shrunken to 58 percent. Some states, such as Texas, have gone from predominantly White to a majority-minority state with no one race having more than 50 percent of the population. The White conservatives think that strong border control, strict immigration laws, restrictions on abortion and mass deportation of over10-million illegal and undocumented immigrants are immediate steps required to reverse the trend.

The most significant issues driving American presidential elections include immigration and women’s reproductive rights. According to Pew Research, however, the economy remains the most crucial issue for voters, with about 81 percent considering it a top priority for their voting decision.

Globalisation has affected the traditional working middle class of small industries. Off-shoring of jobs by big corporations in manufacturing sector has put these people out of income and businesses. Disgruntled, they look at China, India and other developing countries as places responsible for their destitution. Trump is their only hope. If he cannot win the election, and since he will not concede, the White conservatives will be unable to get their issues addressed. Their disappointment may lead to violence. A Democratic victory will mean immediate and widespread protest and law and order issue across the country. The issue may worsen in battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

There is a consensus amongst the Democratic Party leadership that a second Trump presidency can unleash immense executive power to shake the state and its institutions, too much to be tolerable. In July 2024, in Trump vs the United States, the conservative-dominated US Supreme Court ruled that a president is largely immune from any criminal liability for his official acts. This means, Democrats are afraid, that if former Trump is re-elected, he will use his executive authority to deport millions of undocumented immigrants including those parents of US citizen children, persecute political enemies, abandon Ukraine war, befriend Russia and President Putin, terminate NATO and start a new Cold War with China. These steps, the security establishment and Democratic Party believe, are very risky and could push American society to an irreparable damage and threaten already precarious world peace and security. This expert-and-political consensus is what Republicans denounce as “the deep state.” They want Trump to shake it and “drain the swamp.”

To an extent, the liberal cause has been subservient to the conservative comeback for a long time now. Since the end of Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s and the environmentalism movement in the early 1970s, a governmental intervention for socially engineered racial equality has resuted in income inequality. With race being precluded, conservatives turned to class by structurally segregating American society; in the name of individual liberty, they pushed the state to renege from the role of the engine of socio-economic upward mobility and an agent of social change. In the 1980s, President Reagan lowered the taxes for the rich, withdrew federal grants to higher education institutions and lowered social welfare support. The winners of globalisation have made immense fortunes through cheaper labour in the developing world so that the American lower middle class is struggling. On average, the top 0.1 percent Americans make at least $3.3 million per year. They hold 30 percent of the nation’s wealth. The bottom 20 percent of the population makes only $21,900 per capita per annum. Tax brackets for the rich class were lowered during the Trump presidency, thus skewing the income inequality further in the favour of the elite. Liberals believe that this income inequality is unsustainable and must be reversed because it is increasingly stressing American national debt and budgetary commitments.

The elections are also important from the perspective of judiciary. Though liberals achieved some successes through their unrelenting pursuit of judicial victories, such as Griswold vs Connecticut (1965), Loving vs Virginia (1967), Roe vs Wade (1973), Lawrence vs Texas (2003), and Obergefell vs Hodges (2015), conservatives have been winning lately. The Roe vs Wade decision was overturned through Dobbs vs Jackson Women’s Health Organization (2022); affirmative action policy was declared unconstitutional through Students for Fair Admissions vs Harvard and University of North Carolina (2023). More importantly, conservative judges in the US Supreme Cort appear willing to overturn Griswold vs Texas as well as Lawrence vs Texas. These presumptive changes will immensely reshape the American society. Liberals believe that American society is facing a conservative resistance to socio-economic change that a Trump win will intensify.

The faultlines are vivid. The American public is justifiably afraid. If Donald Trump wins the election, he will likely try to reshape the United States. The next four years can be a tumultuous period of American history. If he loses the election and refuses to concede, the conservatives may resort to rioting.

The writer is a professor of government at Houston Community College, USA. He recently published his book The Rise of the Semi-Core: China, India and Pakistan in the World-System. He can be approached at suklashari@gmail.com