he Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit is being held in Islamabad on October 15 and 16.

The SCO, established by Russia and China along with some central Asian states in 2001, primarily focuses on strengthening security against terrorism, fundamentalism and separatism. Its security structure, i.e. the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure is particularly important. Through this initiative, the member states partake in counterterrorism protocols and information sharing to curb any activities pertaining to terrorism. Given its participation in projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, Pakistan’s geographic landscape is particularly significant in countering terrorist activities. The 24th SCO meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, had emphasised the urgency of security, considering current global dynamics marked by conflict and chaos. The heightened emphasis on counterterrorism will continue being a key point in the future summits.

It is important to note that two of the globally most influential states involved in the summit will be China and Russia. Both are instrumental in shaping the world order, as we know it today. China’s stance will incorporate amplified security concerns, particularly aimed at Pakistan in order to maintain the long-term partnership and protect economic interests under the umbrella of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Considering the extremism and terrorism issues over the recent decades, China’s concerns hold considerable weight. Meanwhile, Russia will aim to integrate itself in the Central Asian sphere and expand its influence. Since Russia is at odds with the US-led West, it only makes sense for it seek to consolidate power in Asia through organisations such as the SCO. It is therefore expected that both Russia and China will seek to enhance multilateral cooperation – vouching for regional security, safety and economic prosperity.

India has a history of active participation in SCO summits, prioritising economic partnerships and advocating for peace in the region. India and Pakistan have a complicated past and unique political dynamics that render cooperation between the two challenging. The feeling of insecurity between the two countries is not limited to their borders. The fact that India participated in the 2024 Astana summit, indicates that it understands the importance of diplomatic dialogue in strengthening regional security. India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar is expected to attend the summit being held in Pakistan. This is not to suggest that improvement in bilateral relations will necessarily follow lose behind.

From a (neo-)realist perspective, all states aim to protect national interests, even if that means participating in regional summits along with a hostile state. India would not wish to lose out on an opportunity to further relations with powerful countries such as China and Russia on account of its animosity with Pakistan. Similarly, it will be unwise for Pakistan to take such a course of action. Participation in multilateral settings often provides opportunities for restoration of diplomatic peace between countries and communities. Perhaps, the SCO will at some stage become a catalyst for diplomacy between the two countries. The plain fact is that the SCO can continue to function even if relations between India and Pakistan get worse. In the current context, regional institutions have become far more influential and promising than a few decades ago. Building alliances with core countries can secure one’s position against potential existential threats.

In the upcoming summit, the members are likely to advocate for all that the organisation stands for – security, peace, counterterrorism, regional diplomacy and economic partnerships. It is expected that dialogue within the summit will seek to reduce reliance on the Western financial structures, particularly the US dollar and the SWIFT, highlight the importance of strengthening local currencies. Such suggestions could come from member states at odds with the United States – namely, Russia, China and Iran. These might want to build a financial mechanism that rivals the West and can become the financial harbinger of a new world— at least, Asia. Russia and China stand to benefit the most from such a transition. Both these nations have already created alternative systems, including China’s Cross Border Interbank Payment System and Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages, to mitigate the impact of sanctions imposed by the US-led West.

By championing discussions on alternative financial mechanisms, they will most likely aim at enhancing trade between member states and marginalise the role of Western institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Countries like Pakistan, which are allied with the US and enjoy its patronage through loans, will find themselves at a critical point. On the one hand, alienating the Western financial structure is not an option for Pakistan given its critical dependence on IMF loans. On the other, Pakistan also benefits from the China-backed projects such as the CPEC. India’s position is much more balanced by comparison. It has established itself as a sturdy economic powerhouse and is not dependent on either the West or China the way Pakistan is. While India continues to maintain cordial relations with the US, it is also seeking greater cooperation with China.

To effectively address these issues, it important pertinent that the upcoming, and the future, SCO summits include dialogue on counterterrorism practices that ensure the security of citizens of all member states. The fact that a Chinese convoy had been attacked in Karachi a week before the summit, underscores the importance of articulating tangible policy measures that counter terrorist forces within the country.

The recent terrorist attack shows how terrorism not only leads to domestic destabilisation but can also disrupt international partnerships. Ultimately, it impacts a country’s social, political and economic infrastructure, making it unfit for forming alliances and participating in multilateral arrangements. In today’s globalised world, it is essential for nations to collaborate without the challenges of terrorism and extremism. The recurring terrorist attacks point to an evident gap in the structure that needs to be addressed urgently. It is time to address the root causes behind terrorist activities – poverty, lack of education, ideological fanaticism and external interference.

Policies that directly deal with the aforementioned should be prioritised at the next SCO meeting in order to make the founding principles of the organisation a reality.

A lot of improvement is also needed in the SCO mechanisms. Firs, quick intelligence sharing is key in counterterrorism. Second, coordination in military operations is critical in preventing terrorist attacks – this can be done through collaborative training of armed forces of the member states. Resource sharing too is pertinent in building cooperation between all SCO members. Some SCO members, such as China and Russia, have access to the latest technology, however, others lack it. If this divide persists, it will become increasingly difficult for SCO members to draft and implement policies at the same pace

Ejaz Hussain has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and a post-doc from UC-Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor at Lahore School of Economics. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com

Sofia Najeeb is a senior-year student at the Lahore School of Economics, pursuing a BS degree in political science. She also works as a research assistant.