he city landscape has transformed drastically over the last decade or so. Everywhere you go, be it Lahore, Islamabad, or Karachi, housing societies have sprung up. Urban spaces from my childhood are no longer recognisable, with concrete structures and billboards for new housing societies dominating cities.

But what is the impact of all these new housing schemes? Is the need for housing so urgent that every grassland and agricultural field on the outskirts of the city have eventually been converted? More importantly, the unchecked expansion of these societies is indeed impacting Pakistan’s food security and has slowly become a significant problem that policymakers need to address.

Not so long ago, Pakistan was considered an agrarian economy with most of the population involved in activities related to cultivation and farming. Even in the pre-partition era, the Indus plain was known as the fertile land meant for producing agricultural output and feeding other areas of India. Pakistan was self-sufficient in food supplies, with no signs of food insecurity and even exported excess production to other countries. However, that is no longer true.

From wheat, cotton to sugar, Pakistan now imports these commodities, which contribute to worsening of the balance of trade. In 2023, the country’s food import bill stood at 16.11 percent, according to the World Bank figures, as imports aimed to bridge the gap in food production and prevent scarcity.

The decline in the agricultural sector and its significance to the economy can be further measured by comparing contributions over the years. In 1960, the World Bank estimated that the agricultural sector contributed around 43.2 percent to the country’s GDP. However, data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that, in 2023, the figure has almost halved to 24 percent.

For a sector that accounts for nearly 50 percent of the labour force of the entire country, this percentage underscores the dire need for reforms to bring about a significant change for the better.

The agricultural sector faces numerous challenges, including climate change, reduced farmland, rising costs, and potential disasters and pest attacks. All of these contribute to food insecurity and malnutrition. The World Food Programme believes that 36.9 percent of the entire population is at risk, and 20.2 percent is suffering from malnutrition.

Furthermore, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification report for March to November 2024 revealed that 8.6 million people (24 percent of the surveyed population) in parts of Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Thus, it is clear that food security is a critical issue, with a significant portion of the population in urgent need of attention.

As previously stated, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa faces a risk to food security, and the provincial capital, Peshawar, reflects why the crisis is intensifying. The challenges include reduced agricultural land, expansion of housing societies, and climate change. Known once as the City of Flowers, Peshawar is rapidly transforming into a grey landscape, with concrete dominance in urban spaces.

This decline in agricultural land presents a dilemma for the local government as beautiful gardens and lush fields are now being converted into ever-increasing housing societies.

Peshawar has led the rapid growth of housing schemes compared to other districts. This surge is accompanied by a proliferation of rules and illegalities. According to the local government department, Peshawar has 198 private housing societies, with 162 deemed illegal.

It is not just Peshawar that has witnessed such irregularities; data from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa local government in 2022 shows that 297 out of 442 private housing schemes in the province were illegal. Of the remaining number, 87 were pending approvals, with only 58 having government approvals. To further illustrate the staggering damage to agricultural land, a report by the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Department of Agriculture revealed that from 2014 to 2023, 302,894 hectares of agricultural land became uncultivable.

This decline was attributed to housing societies and climate change, with the former contributing 70 percent and the latter 30 percent. Such issues are not confined to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but are common throughout the country. In Rawalpindi, a 2023 report revealed that only 79 out of 550 housing societies were completely legal.

Fraudulent activities became a norm under the banner of new housing schemes, and the Rawalpindi Development Authority had to publish lists of all legal and illegal schemes in a desperate attempt to prevent citizens from investing in the wrong places.

Unplanned development has led to the utilisation of areas considered dangerous and at risk of flooding, which are now at the forefront of damage caused by natural disasters. 

The common response to the emergence of these housing societies is that the growing population needs space to live, and housing societies serve as a response to this rising demand. Housing is indeed a problem, but the solution does not lie in converting every grassland and vegetative cover into concrete infrastructure. Rather than resorting to large plots, the norm of apartments and smaller houses has to become more prevalent.

Densely populated cities around the globe, such as London, Hong Kong, and New York, offer studio apartments, flat-sharing, and other options for those choosing to live in urban centres. Thus, to accommodate the growing population without exhausting scarce land, Pakistanis need a shift in mentality, replacing the obsession with a “bara ghar” (large house) with smarter options.

In the long run, Pakistan must invest in creating new cities rather than overexploiting current ones with unplanned development. Additionally, rural areas, which account for most agricultural practices, need to be developed with better infrastructure to curb excessive rural-to-urban migration. Only then will the burden of rapid city expansion be alleviated, providing new opportunities for citizens.

In the distant future, the prospect of agriculture and the incentive to remain in the sector could be further diminished by the recent tax proposal from the International Monetary Fund. Historically, farmers have enjoyed a tax amnesty, as Pakistan’s constitution forbade the federal government from imposing taxes on agricultural income.

The International Monetary Fund has instead suggested that provincial governments apply the same rule to any non-salaried business individual and charge 45 percent of net income (maximum). Additionally, there was a recommendation to remove the income tax exemption on livestock income.

Although the maximum tax rate on agriculture has not been finalised (with 29 percent, 35 percent, and 45 percent being possibilities), the four provinces have agreed to comply with the IMF’s demands to align taxation on agricultural incomes starting from next January. While such reforms could stabilise the chaotic economy, they come with the tradeoff of potentially making farming less lucrative and leading to a shift towards non-agricultural sectors.

A few years ago, some may recall video footage of mango trees being chopped down in Multan as land was cleared for a new housing society. The clips sent the nation into a frenzy, sparking a heated debate about converting fertile farmland into housing societies and the subsequent impacts on food security and climate change. The provincial government launched an inquiry, confirming the deforestation of mango orchards on around 12 acres.

Although Multan has a global reputation for producing the best mangoes, the bottom line is that agriculture is being replaced by housing societies. Why? For farmers, agriculture is no longer lucrative due to a lack of profit. Potential investors promise substantial money for the land, which farmers can use to establish new businesses. As a result, farmers are willing to leave agriculture and explore new business opportunities.

On the other hand, property is valued as a very lucrative business for investors. The common perception is that property prices do not fall and promise high returns in a short period. Governments have historically adopted measures that attract people to property investment even more. In 2020, former prime minister Imran Khan launched the Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme. The most astonishing aspect of this scheme was that investors were not questioned about their source of income, potentially providing a clean slate for anyone wishing to join the venture.

This programme was seen as a catalyst to stimulate economic growth in the post-pandemic environment of Pakistan, as construction would pave the way for employment and economic activity. However, the project was marked by poor results, as investors opted to purchase land rather than proceed with construction.

The property market quickly boomed, with more societies emerging, and the perception of better returns on property sales overshadowed the scheme’s original motive. Not only did speculative buying of property lead to invisible investments with uncertain returns, but it also allowed people to launder money by investing and avoiding questions about their income.

Ultimately, the biggest failure of the scheme was the wastage of land. Plots were bought with no construction or development, leading to grasslands turning into uncultivable areas, which heavily contributed to the problem. This has been observed in Karachi, too, where land mafias have manipulated regulations to establish control over land.

Housing societies exist on paper, only for them to have a billboard and a site office with little or no activity. Plots are sold within a pool of people, only in an attempt to further inflate prices and multiply their wealth by exploiting the power of speculative buying and entrapping buyers into an endless payment of monthly instalments.

The mushrooming of housing societies has consequences that extend far beyond food insecurity. Continuous deforestation and removal of vegetative cover are primary reasons for the urban flooding Pakistan has experienced in recent years.

Moreover, unplanned development has led to the utilisation of areas considered dangerous and at risk of flooding, which are now at the forefront of damage caused by natural disasters. Trees also play a crucial role in holding soil in place, preventing soil erosion and siltation that can affect reservoir capacities. Finally, the damage to ecosystems and habitats is a critical issue that must be addressed.

At the end of the day, government and policymakers need to recognise the ticking time bomb of reckless urbanisation and the disease-like spread of housing societies at the expense of agricultural land. Pakistan has a history of reactionary policies rather than proactive ones that prevent crises from surfacing.

The country is food insecure and highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. For a sustainable future, while we need measures to make agriculture resilient and adaptive, preserving and maintaining agricultural land is of even greater importance. It is time for grey concrete infrastructure to be replaced by green spaces and the conservation of already scarce agricultural land. Only through swift and effective reforms can this nation hope to prevent a possible future catastrophe.

The writer is a University College London graduate with a master’s in urban economic development. He is the co-founder of HamSukhan, a community-based learning platform