n our recent article on economic growth through a digital revolution in Pakistan, we highlighted the critical role of a digitally skilled workforce in steering the nation towards a prosperous future. This ongoing conversation about Pakistan’s digital transformation takes a new turn as we consider the implications of firewall installations in the country.

While firewalls are integral for cybersecurity, their impact on Pakistan’s already fragile economy and burgeoning digital market demands a closer examination.

As digital barriers, firewalls play a pivotal role in safeguarding a nation’s cyber infrastructure. Countries like China have successfully implemented robust firewall systems to control and monitor internet traffic, securing their cyberspace from external threats.

However, in a developing country like Pakistan—already struggling to cope with economic challenges and heavily dependent on digital markets—the cost and sustainability of such installations need to be critically analysed. Is Pakistan’s economy, characterised by frequent reliance on IMF support, equipped to bear the financial burden of nationwide firewall implementation?

The necessity of firewalls in Pakistan cannot be understated. As the country becomes increasingly digital, protecting its online spaces from cyber threats is paramount. The global cybersecurity landscape shows that nations prioritising digital security tend to have more vigorous and resilient economies.

China’s Great Firewall, for instance, is not just a tool for censorship but also a means to protect domestic industries from international competition and cyberattacks. For Pakistan, where digital vulnerabilities are a growing concern, installing a firewall might seem like a step in the right direction. However, this decision must be weighed against the economic realities the country faces.

One of the key features of the proposed system is the use of Deep Packet Inspection technology. DPI can inspect data up to the application layer, allowing for a more granular analysis of content, and identifying sources of propaganda material.

Additionally, the system includes keyword filtering aimed at identifying and blocking content deemed undesirable by the government, potentially including blasphemy, hate speech, or other sensitive topics. Another crucial aspect is the regulation of virtual private networks (VPNs), which some users employ to bypass restrictions.

However, the implications of such measures are far-reaching. The recent decline in the number of users on platform X (formerly, Twitter) from 4.5 million to 2.4 million suggests that government actions can indeed be effective in limiting access to certain platforms.

This is further evidenced by reports indicating a drop in internet speed by 30 to 40 percent, causing massive difficulties for businesses and individuals reliant on high-speed connectivity. This disruption is not just a nightmare for citizens but also for e-commerce, freelancers, and those managing other digital businesses. These sectors were expected to boost Pakistan’s digital landscape, but the reality appears to be on the contrary.

The ongoing measures, though they may improve surveillance, seem to be disrupting digital services and access to social media. Social media users in Pakistan are facing disruptions on platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp amid significant internet outages. There are reports on increasing complaints about these services, and the frustration is palpable.

Amid these stark conditions, several entrepreneurs and freelancers are mulling different options to survive, including shifting abroad where internet services are stable. The Wireless and Internet Service Providers Association of Pakistan has also sounded the alarm about the potential exodus of businesses from the nation, if the government fails to address these issues.

A balanced strategy that includes targeted cybersecurity measures could offer a sustainable path forward. Pakistan needs a clever approach that aligns with both its economic realities and aspirations for a digital future. 

The mid-July incident, when a new national firewall was tested, has raised concerns about potential internet censorship and privacy impacts. The experience of other countries offers a cautionary tale. Companies like Sandvine have provided internet-blocking capabilities to repressive regimes such as Azerbaijan, Jordan, Turkiye, and Egypt.

The DPI technology has allowed authoritarian governments like Russia to throttle X and restrict access to VPNs. In Russia, DPI technology targeted X traffic, filtering messages and throttling speeds, rendering it unusable. Governments increasingly throttle services instead of completely blocking platforms to disguise censorship as technical errors or localised outages.

Content filtering in the United Arab Emirates is known to be one of the most stringent in the world, apart from mainland China. The process is highly centralised and managed primarily by the state through its main ISPs, Etisalat and du. Unlike other countries, Pakistan’s international connectivity lacks path diversity, as it is highly concentrated at both the physical and logical layers.

According to French researcher Nowmay Opalinski, who has published a study titled, The Quest for a Resilient Internet Access in a Constrained Geopolitical Environment, the shape of the internet in Pakistan is helping authorities maintain control over it.

If Pakistan is to implement a censorship system similar to China’s Great Firewall, it would likely face significant social, economic, and political consequences. Socially, restricted access to diverse information sources would limit freedom of expression and curtail public discourse, nurturing an environment where dissent is stifled.

Economically, it could hinder innovation and digital growth by isolating Pakistani internet users and businesses from global markets and collaborations. Politically, the move might lead to increased public discontent and resistance, as citizens push back against perceived overreach and control. The overall effect would be a more controlled and less open society, with significant implications for civil liberties and democratic principles.

To tackle this problem at the national level, Pakistan could consider alternative strategies that balance the need for cybersecurity with economic growth. For instance, instead of an overarching firewall, the government could invest in targeted cybersecurity measures that protect critical infrastructure without restricting access to global digital markets.

Public-private partnerships could also be explored to enhance the country’s cyber defences while encouraging innovation within the digital sector. Additionally, improving digital literacy and investing in local cybersecurity talent could provide a sustainable and cost-effective solution to the country’s cyber challenges.

The local tech industry should be empowered to provide alternative local solutions. Policymakers should think twice when considering the use of internet blocking tools to solve public policy issues. If they do, and choose to pursue alternative approaches, this will be an important win for a global, open, interoperable, and trusted internet.

While the installation of a firewall might address some immediate cybersecurity concerns, the long-term economic implications cannot be ignored. Given the country’s reliance on IMF support and the potential risk to its freelance community, policymakers must approach this issue with caution.

A balanced strategy that includes targeted cybersecurity measures, investment in digital infrastructure, and the promotion of digital literacy could offer a more sustainable path forward. To ensure the digital economy’s growth without compromising security, Pakistan needs a clever approach that aligns with both its economic realities and aspirations for a digital future.

Abdullah Khalid is a researcher from the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

 Dr Maaz Hashmi is an independent policy researcher