limate change is increasingly being recognised not merely as an environmental crisis but also as a geopolitical force having the capacity to reshape global and regional dynamics. Conventionally seen through the prism of science and policy, climate change has become a critical factor in influencing the balance of power among nations. As the planet warms, melting ice caps and rising sea levels are not just changing landscapes but are also redrawing the geopolitical map. States are being compelled to reevaluate their security strategies, economic models and diplomatic ties as a result of the availability of resources like water, arable land and energy.

In this context, Pakistan finds itself at a critical crossroads. “Geo-strategically” located, the country faces trials threatening its stability and security. The economy is contingent on agriculture, which is vulnerable to climate-induced disruptions making Pakistan navigate the dual threats of resource scarcity and economic fragility. Its pivotal location in South Asia, a region highly prone to climate impacts, can present Pakistan with an opportunity in regional climate diplomacy and adaptation efforts. How Pakistan responds to these existential threats—whether by seizing the opportunity to lead (if it can gather that capacity) or by continuing on its current trajectory—will not only shape its own future but could also have significant implications for the region.

As environmental challenges become severe, nations must rethink their conventional alliances and forge new partnerships based on shared vulnerabilities and mutual interests. Countries that once saw little reason to cooperate have to find common ground in the fight against rising sea levels, desertification and other climate-related threats, particularly in South Asia. These emerging partnerships, often cutting across historical divides, can redefine the geopolitical landscape in ways that were inconceivable just a few decades ago. South Asia already stands at the front of climate change, making it one of the most vulnerable regions globally. The geographical and socio-political characteristics of the region create an explosive mix of environmental and geopolitical risks, which threaten to destabilise not just individual nations but the entire subcontinent.

At the heart of these varying formations is the struggle for deteriorating natural resources. Water, arable land and clean air are becoming progressively scarce commodities, fueling tensions between nations and regions. As rivers dry up and agricultural yields wane, disputes over resource allocation become intense, often intensifying existing political and ethnic conflicts. In many cases, these resource-driven struggles are not just about immediate survival but also about maintaining or gaining strategic advantage.

One of the vital challenges is the rapid glacial melt in the Himalayas, sometimes referred to as the Third Pole due to its vast ice reserves. These glaciers feed the major river systems of South Asia, including the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, which are lifelines for millions of people. As the glaciers recede at a distressing rate, there is a snowballing risk of river flow variability, leading to flooding and prolonged droughts. The Indus River, crucial for Pakistan’s and India’s agriculture, is highly dependent on glacial melt. Significant change in its flow could spark water conflicts between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbours already burdened with historical animosity. Similarly, Bangladesh, faces the dual threat of rising sea levels and more intense monsoon storms, both of which can lead to devastating floods, mass displacement and food insecurity.

Coastal vulnerabilities add another layer of complication to the region’s climate challenges. South Asia’s vast coastline, stretching from Pakistan’s Arabian Sea to Bangladesh’s Bay of Bengal, is exposed to the effects of rising sea levels and severe cyclones. Coastal cities like Karachi, Mumbai and Kolkata are at high risk of inundation, threatening millions of lives and significant economic assets. In Bangladesh, where much of the population lives in low-lying coastal areas, even a modest rise in sea level could displace millions and create climate-induced migration crises. The Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest straddling India and Bangladesh, acts as a natural barrier against storm surges. However, its degradation due to rising sea levels and human encroachment has aggravated the region’s vulnerability to climate disasters.

Supplementing these environmental stressors is South Asia’s fragmented attitude to climate cooperation. Despite sharing rivers, coastlines and weather patterns, the countries in this region have failed to develop interconnected strategies for managing shared resources and responding to climate disasters. Water disputes are a prime example of this fragmentation. The ongoing tension between India and Bangladesh over the Teesta River, and the unrelenting differences between India and Pakistan over the Indus Water Treaty, highlight the region’s inability to effectively manage trans-boundary water resources. These disputes are often made worse by nationalistic policies and a lack of trust, making collaborative water management an imprecise goal.

Disaster management also suffers from a lack of regional coordination. While countries like India have made progress in improving their own disaster response capabilities, there is little in the way of a united regional approach to combat climate-induced disasters. The 2017 South Asian floods, which affected over 40 million people across India, Nepal and Bangladesh, exposed the weaknesses in regional disaster preparedness and response. Instead of cooperation to mitigate the impact, each country acted in isolation, leading to a fragmented and less effective response. These vulnerabilities—whether from the mountains, rivers or coasts—combined with a lack of cohesive action, position South Asia as a ticking time bomb in the face of climate change.

Pakistan’s unique geographical and socio-political context makes it particularly vulnerable to multi-layered risks of a changing climate. The climate-security nexus is ever more evident in the country. Climate change is snowballing the security challenges by adding to internal displacement, which often leads to social unrest and aggravate tensions. For instance, the increasing frequency and severity of floods have displaced millions of people, particularly in provinces like Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Punjab. These climate migrants move to urban centers, causing overpopulation, stressed resources and sharp competition for jobs fueling social incapacity. Additionally, climate-induced water scarcity is a concern, particularly in the context of Pakistan’s tense relations with India. The Indus Water Treaty, which governs the shared use of the Indus River and its tributaries, is under strain as both countries face increasing pressure on their water resources.

Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan is also affected. The impacts of climate change, including water scarcity and reduced agricultural yields, can intensify existing issues such as cross-border migration and insurgence. The lack of economic opportunities in these border areas, combined with environmental stressors, can drive local populations towards extremist groups or illicit activities.

Economic fragility is another critical aspect of Pakistan’s climate predicament. The country’s economy is reliant on agriculture, which employs a significant portion of the population and contributes a substantial share to the national GDP. However, agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with impacts ranging from erratic monsoons and floods to protracted droughts and heat waves. The 2022 floods, which submerged vast areas of farmland, caused billions of dollars in losses and disturbed food production. Such events can push millions of people deeper into poverty and create social disruptions like an increase in childhood marriages.

The country’s economic fragility is compounded by its insufficient capacity to invest in climate adaptation and resilience. The high debt levels and fiscal limitations make it difficult to fund large-scale infrastructure projects that could mitigate the impacts of climate change, such as improved water management systems or flood defences.

Pakistan faces a stark choice: continue on its current trajectory, where climate change exacerbates existing security and economic challenges, or seize the opportunity to implement bold policies that address these issues head-on. Pakistan can turn its climate challenges into opportunities for sustainable development. However, this will require strong political will, regional cooperation and significant financial resources. The country’s approach to climate adaptation and innovation will determine its role in shaping both its own future and the broader regional dynamics.

The country has made some progress, such as hosting the 2022 International Conference on Climate Adaptation and launching the Pakistan Climate Change Act of 2017, which outlines a framework for climate action. However, these efforts have yet to translate into a comprehensive and cohesive national or regional strategy. Pakistan’s potential to become a significant advocate for regional climate diplomacy remains underutilised, largely due to its domestic and political instability.

Adaptation and innovation present a vital opportunity for Pakistan to turn its climate challenges into strengths. The country’s reliance on agriculture and water resources demands innovative solutions in these areas. Improving water management via advanced technologies such as drip irrigation and efficient water storage systems could relieve some of the pressure on agricultural productivity. In addition to technological innovations, enhancing climate diplomacy could help Pakistan secure international support and investment for its climate adaptation projects. This includes leveraging global platforms to advocate for equitable climate finance and engaging in multilateral climate agreements to foster regional cooperation.

The country must develop a forward-looking strategy that not only addresses instantaneous adaptation needs but also positions itself as a regional leader in climate resilience. This requires a comprehensive national climate action plan that integrates long-term goals with practical, short-term measures. Reinforcing institutional frameworks, investing in research and development for climate technologies and nurturing regional partnerships are crucial steps. By implementing a strategic vision that considers both immediate needs and future ambitions, Pakistan can enhance its resilience to climate impacts, improve its standing in regional and global climate negotiations and secure a more sustainable future for its population.

The author is a freelance consultant and researcher, currently working and looking for climate change projects