fter a dry and scorching July, Pakistan is in the grip of monsoon rains. Northern areas of Gilgit and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have had several spells of destructive rains. Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab have been lashed by torrential rains. Hill torrents of Koh-i-Suleman and Khirthar ranges have generated raging flows isolating dozens of villages. Based on the prognosis by Meteorological Department, the National Disaster Management Authority has been churning out weather alerts and advisories.

An update on August 13 on the NDMA website said there had been 154 deaths and 315 injuries since July 1. Around 2,234 houses have been reported damaged. Strong rain spells are also expected in the rest of August.

All international and regional weather models have forecast above-normal heat and rains in Pakistan. Sindh and Balochistan received catastrophic monsoon rains in 2022 that triggered an unprecedented deluge. Several districts of Sindh remained submerged for several months. The flat topography (9-10 centimetres per kilometre slopes) and a poorly maintained drainage network turned vast areas into ponds for several months.

Before the onset of monsoon rains, the Meteorological Department and the NDMA had issued warnings of strong wet spells this year. Meanwhile May, June and July were months of blistering heat. All provinces endured baking sun for weeks punctuated by brief cloudy pauses and scant showers. Plains of Sindh, the Punjab and Balochistan were sizzling with over 40°C temperature for weeks. In the last week of May, Mohen Jo Daro near Larkana registered mercury at 52.5°C that was closely trailed by Jacobabad with 52°C. The meteorological office reported that Jacobabad, Nawabshah, Sukkur, Rohri, Dadu and Khairpur experienced temperatures of 50°C from May 23 onwards, persisting for several days. In the upper Sindh districts temperature remained 8°C above normal for several days. Although temperature in Karachi remained below 40°C, stifling humidity made the city breathless. Sibbi and Jafarabad in Balochistan and parts of central and southern Punjab also experienced excruciating heat waves.

This brought back poignant memories of 2022 when similarly protracted heat waves were witnessed. A prolonged heat wave starting in mid-March lasted till mid-May in Sindh and parts of the Punjab. According to State of Pakistan Climate in 2022 report of Pakistan Meteorological Department, Pad Idan town in Sindh recorded temperatures 6 to 8 degrees above normal for an entire month. Subsequently, the town received 535 mm rain in July dwarfing recorded rainfall during past eight decades. The annual national mean temperature for 2022 was 0.84 °C above the 1961-1990 average, making it the fifth-warmest year in sixty-two years. It was also the highest ever annual mean temperature for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the fourth warmest year for Sindh and the sixth warmest year on record for Gilgit-Baltistan and the Punjab.

May, June and July were months of blistering heat. All provinces endured extreme heat for weeks punctuated by cloudy pauses and scant showers. Plains of Sindh, the Punjab and Balochistan were sizzling with over 40°C temperature for weeks. In the last week of May, Mohen Jo Daro near Larkana registered mercury at 52.5°C, closely trailed by Jacobabad with 52°C.

Records for daily maximum temperature were smashed at several locations during March and April in Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab. On March 18, 2022, the highest maximum temperature records were broken at a number of stations. This was followed by heavy rains in July. The month of July 2022 witnessed 181 percent above-normal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall above average was 307 percent in Sindh, 450 percent in Balochistan and 116 percent in the Punjab. August came with even heavier showers. The national rainfall was in August was excessively above average (+243 percent). It was extremely above average in Sindh (+726 per cent), Balochistan (+590 per cent) and GB (+233 per cent). Incessant heavy rainfall was recorded from August 11 to August 27. This triggered apocalyptics floods in Sindh and Balochistan.

Heat waves this year have followed the 2022 trends. The pre-monsoon heat wave has been intense. In the last week of May, the Punjab had to close all schools due to excessive heat. The Sindh government extended school vacations till mid-August due to unbearable heat in the province. This is not unique to the region. The UNICEF reported that more than 460 million children in South Asia were exposed to extremely high temperatures, with 83 or more days in a year exceeding 35 degrees Celsius. It is estimated that 28 percent of the children across South Asia were exposed to 4.5 or more heat waves per year.

Although rainfall in July 2024 was not as heavy as 2022, urban flooding was witnessed in Islamabad and some towns of the Punjab including Lahore in July. Rain spells of normal intensity created water pools in several towns of Sindh. August has turned out to be a wet month.

In terms of exposure to flooding Sindh is the most vulnerable province of Pakistan. The province is the ultimate destination of all riverine floods. Indus is the conduit for flows of Kabul River, glacial melt from Skardu and Chitral, eastern rivers emanating from India and massive hill torrents of Koh-i-Suleman range in south Punjab. Additionally Sindh’s western flank brings torrential floods from Kirthar range and runoff from Khuzdar and Jhal Magsi areas of Balochistan. Two mega drains, the Left Bank Outfall Drain and the Right Bank Outfall Drain also bring flood water from breaches, back flows and blockage of natural waterways. The two drains were among major contributors to 2022 floods in Sindh. The poorly maintained drainage system and dysfunctional pumping systems wrought havoc in many towns of Sindh in 2022. This year too, complaints abound that drains carrying agriculture runoff are choked with silt and weeds. Erosion of several flood protection dykes and canal banks has also been highlighted by local media. A number of canal breaches have been reported.

Meanwhile, Tarbela Dam has attained almost its full storage capacity. Soon all its inflow will be released into Indus. Downstream barrages are so far witnessing low to medium flows. Severe rains in Indus zone or catchment of eastern rivers can swell Indus flows. In 2022 the worst damage occurred in the latter half of August. Extreme vigilance is warranted over the next four weeks to avert a calamity.

The writer is a civil society professional; nmemon2004@yahoo.com