Glass half full

What Pakistan has achieved over decades

Glass half full

For long, especially during the last two decades that saw the rise of independent electronic media and the social media, there has been much bad news about Pakistan. This has not been an act of nature. It has been argued that the circulation of bad news is down to an ecosystem built on foundations of vested interests. There are those whose vocation is digging up bad news. They do it for a living. Then there are TV channels and newspapers that compete for ratings and circulation and count on bad news to help them win the race. Some of the development sector ‘experts’ also have a vested interest in depicting Pakistan as a failed state. Some politicians, too, find it helpful to talk about how ‘backward’ Pakistan remains.

We believe that there are at least two problems with this narrative. First, it is false – at least, in part. Second, such narratives can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If a large number of people are convinced that there is no hope that will eventually be the case – because of the gloom, if for no other reason.

Pakistan has, in fact, made some incredible strides on almost every development indicator. We do not argue that the glass is full but we do argue that the glass is neither empty nor broken.

These following data tell a story in plain view that has been largely ignored.

Massive poverty reduction

Over the last two decades, Pakistan has had tremendous success in curbing extreme poverty. From as high as 64 percent, poverty rate, as measured by the World Bank and reported on its data portals, went down to around 21 percent in a matter of two decades. This translates into 40 million to 60 million people graduating out of poverty in Pakistan.

Year

Poverty headcount ratio

2001

64.3

2004

51.7

2005

50.4

2007

44.1

2010

36.8

2011

36.3

2013

29.5

2015

24.3

2018

21.9

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Education

Gross enrollment in tertiary education shot up from a mere 2.7 percent in 2003 to over 12 percent in 2019.

Year

Gross percentage tertiary enrollment

2003

2.700680017

2004

3.390019894

2005

4.923419952

2006

4.986420155

2007

5.615320206

2008

5.55546999

2009

6.798860073

2010

5.054243088

2011

8.295140266

2012

9.39550972

2013

9.730730057

2014

9.659850121

2015

9.225899696

2016

9.032739639

2017

9.348919868

2018

8.9584198

2019

12.22064018




























In the year 2000, only 200,000 Pakistanis were enrolled in undergraduate education. Now over 2.5 million are enrolled in universities. From merely 30 or 40 universities, we now have over 230 universities. The debate over the quality of these universities and graduates is a valid concern as is the case even in advanced economies. But being oblivious of the achievements of nearly 10 million men and women would be a disservice.

The progress has not been restricted to tertiary education either. Enormous improvement has been made in primary education as well. Gross primary school enrollment rose from 70 percent in 2000 to around 96 percent in 2019.


Year

Gross percentage primary enrollment

2000

70.88539

2001

70.79137

2002

70.8949

2003

72.72244

2004

77.11121

2005

81.27757

2006

77.92785

2007

83.10394

2008

83.24307

2009

83.8986

2010

84.59361

2011

80.85918

2012

80.37719

2013

79.65858

2014

84.30747

2015

85.08992

2016

91.31746

2017

90.58917

2018

94.3282

2019

95.48414

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Health

Life expectancy at birth has been rising. An average Pakistani can now hope to live for 67 years. While life expectancy continues to rise, the wellbeing of the people at higher ages must be ensured.

Year

Life expectancy (years)

2000

62.102

2001

62.421

2002

62.626

2003

62.843

2004

63.052

2005

62.466

2006

63.731

2007

63.852

2008

64.036

2009

64.14

2010

64.436

2011

64.648

2012

64.782

2013

65.15

2014

65.284

2015

65.697

2016

65.88

2017

66.297

2018

66.482

2019

66.756

2020

66.269

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Remittances

Remittance inflows have increased drastically, explained largely by the formal delivery of remittance. In 2000, the share of formal remittances was around 1.3 percent of the GDP. Now, it’s close to 9 percent.

Year

Remittances received (% of GDP)

2000

1.310692

2001

1.838096

2002

4.447783

2003

4.31994

2004

3.660924

2005

3.565024

2006

3.730765

2007

3.936064

2008

4.138694

2009

5.183976

2010

5.469458

2011

5.741443

2012

6.242434

2013

6.326914

2014

7.056776

2015

7.135673

2016

6.319233

2017

5.853677

2018

5.950946

2019

6.934042

2020

8.684012

2021

8.990918

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Internet penetration

Use of internet is a great social leveler. It also opens immense possibilities for a digital economy. The use of internet as a percentage of the population has increased from 1.3 percent in 2001 to 25 percent in 2020. In a recent survey, two out of three adults below the age of 30 said they were using the internet. Access to the internet has made Pakistanis one of the largest contributors to the international gig economy. The IT sector has been the highest export growth centre for over a decade.

Year

Individuals using internet (% of population)

2001

1.318551

2002

2.577427

2003

5.041158

2004

6.164321

2005

6.332329

2006

6.5

2007

6.8

2008

7

2009

7.5

2010

8

2011

8

2012

8.1

2013

9

2014

10

2015

11

2016

12.38545

2017

13.78

2018

15.34

2019

17.0709

2020

25

Close to 90 percent penetration of mobile phone at household level has ensured connectivity for households across Pakistan. This has opened options for not just employment but also for accessing e-commerce and digital health services across the country. Pakistan could leap frog some of the geographical access issues that some of the developed countries faced in their development journey.

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Year

Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100)

2000

0.198545

2001

0.466409

2002

1.040369

2003

1.440824

2004

2.943421

2005

7.324109

2006

19.37809

2007

34.55098

2008

47.33976

2009

49.62152

2010

51.00723

2011

54.83032

2012

59.42025

2013

62.20844

2014

65.19134

2015

59.67676

2016

63.92184

2017

66.79262

2018

70.07945

2019

74.0756

2020

77.30056

2021

81.55131

Electricity consumption

According to a recent World Bank study, Pakistan is among the top seven economies in the world in terms of growth in electricity supply and demand over the last two decades. Solar panels have opened up a new horizon.

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Year

kWh per capita

2000

334.1713

2001

336.3445

2002

340.9288

2003

362.7349

2004

379.1475

2005

408.7179

2006

429.4491

2007

423.9011

2008

389.6425

2009

403.1543

2010

408.0029

2011

399.3399

2012

396.2694

2013

426.4344

2014

419.6846

Maternal mortality

Maternal mortality has dropped by 60 percent in two decades. However, it is still unacceptably high and a lot needs to be done on this front.

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Year

Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births)

2000

286

2001

275

2002

264

2003

254

2004

243

2005

237

2006

222

2007

214

2008

205

2009

199

2010

191

2011

180

2012

173

2013

166

2014

161

2015

154

2016

143

2017

140

Decline in tobacco use

The decline in tobacco use has been a big success. Tobacco use dropped from around 38 percent to 20 percent between 2000 and 2020.

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Year

Prevalence of tobacco use (% population)

2000

37.5

2005

31.9

2010

27.4

2015

23.6

2018

20.8

2019

20.8

2020

20.2

Access to sanitation

A major success has been access to sanitation services. Most households in Pakistan now have a toilet within the house. Over the past two decades, households have invested their savings in improving their living standards and have built these toilets without government support. Open defecation has dropped from close to 39 percent in 2000 to 7.3 percent in 2020.

Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators

Year

People practicing open defecation (% of population)

2000

38.45189

2001

36.82208

2002

35.19888

2003

33.58327

2004

31.97483

2005

30.37403

2006

28.78047

2007

27.19422

2008

25.61568

2009

24.04485

2010

22.48142

2011

20.92545

2012

19.37699

2013

17.8366

2014

16.30377

2015

14.77855

2016

13.26099

2017

11.75134

2018

10.24709

2019

8.749029

2020

7.30336


Bilal Ijaz Gilani is the executive director of Gallup Pakistan. Umer Ijaz Gilani is a lawyer.

Glass half full