Political revolutions often follow profound discontent. Civil disobedience, protests and [sometimes] violent actions are employed to challenge, and overthrow governments. These movements aim to oust the incumbent leaders and install their popular rivals. Recent instances of such upheavals include the 2011 Arab Spring, which saw Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali ousted, only for these transitions to fall short of sustained improvement.

Egypt’s subsequent turmoil under Mohamed Morsi, whose presidency was marked by intense political conflict and his eventual removal by the military, exemplifies the instability such revolutions can bring. Tunisia, despite the change in leadership, continued to struggle with economic challenges. Libya’s Muammar al-Gaddafi was killed during a protracted civil war, resulting in more conflict, and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh resigned, leading to unending instability.

In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and flight amid intense student-led protests also testifies to the volatility of such revolutionary movements. Her tenure, marked by notable economic growth and infrastructure development, was overshadowed by accusations of authoritarian practices, including suppression of opposition and human rights violations. The violent looting of her residence and subsequent clashes with law enforcement revealed the nature and depth of public unrest and a breakdown in respect for legal institutions.

This break down of order yielded a significant role to the military, which will now determine the shape of the interim government and its own role in national affairs. For the short term, the break down has clearly undermined democratic principles. Whether the intervention by the military leads to meaningful improvements or further instability and chaos, remains to be seen. The interim government faces the daunting task of addressing substantial economic losses, managing ongoing political instability and steering the nation towards democratic governance. How effectively the new leadership navigates these challenges will determine whether Bangladesh can transition from this period of upheaval to a state of lasting stability and positive progress for its people.

Pakistan’s political environment has long been marred by frequent upheavals and instability, driven by a series of coups. Military dictatorships under Ayub Khan, Zia-ul Haq, Yahya Khan and Pervez Musharraf established hybrid regimes that blurred the lines between civilian governance and military control.

The legacy of hybrid-authoritarianism is still with us. Judicial activism and intermittent establishment influence have frequently shaped the country’s governance. Political parties and citizens have often fallen for promises held out by undemocratic forces. The leadership cult and lack of tolerance for dissent have polarised the society, hindering democratic progress.

In the wake of recent events in Bangladesh, some opposition leaders and their supporters in Pakistan have expressed a desire for a similar upheaval, overlooking the severe economic and security challenges that have plagued the country since 1958. Such reactions fail to recognise that our current situation demands a comprehensive transformation in political practices, governance and the judiciary, not a further disruption.

The initiation of meaningful dialogue among political leaders, coupled with a pact to support democratic governments and reject undemocratic forces, is essential for ensuring lasting stability, paving the way for economic stabilisation. Amidst continuous instability, the fiscal year 2022-23 closed with a negative GDP growth of 0.21 percent, reflecting a critical situation, negatively affecting every sector. With improved economic management and timely interventions, a GDP growth rate of 2.38 percent is expected for 2023-24. This shift towards stability is primarily the result of aggressive corrective measures that have managed to halt the economic decline but have also caused significant disruption at the domestic level for businesses and households.

In the face of multiple challenges, sustained recovery requires careful efforts to avoid overburdening the vital economic sectors. Government officials have emphasized that the drastic reforms were needed to prevent severe economic fallout. With improvements in macroeconomic indicators, there is cautious optimism that the coming years will usher in a period of recovery and economic stability.

It is imperative that all political forces collaborate, recognising that unity and cooperation are essential for strengthening democracy and transforming governance. Only through united efforts can Pakistan set itself on a path to economic growth and stability.

In 2024, Pakistan has recorded a primary surplus of Rs 952.92 billion, equivalent to 0.9 percent of GDP. This achievement marks a substantial improvement, as a primary surplus has been attained for the first time in over a decade and a half, making it a rare occurrences since 1984. On the external front, the country has made notable progress by reducing its current account deficit to $681 million. The CAD had previously been a persistent concern, reaching a troubling $17.4 billion by the end of 2022. This was a major trigger for the recent economic instability, raising serious doubts about the sustainability of Pakistan's external trade.

The substantial reduction in the CAD highlights the improvements in external economic stability. Additionally, the positive developments have facilitated a recent staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a 37-month Extended Fund Facility programme worth $7 billion. The agreement, reached with remarkable efficiency, reflects the IMF’s confidence in the macroeconomic stability achieved over the last year. The smooth negotiation has underscored the progress Pakistan has made in stabiliding its economy and gaining international financial support.

Inflation has shown a significant improvement and has been declining since January 2024. For July 2024, the consumer price index reached 11.1 percent year-on-year, down from 12.6 percent in the previous month and 28.3 percent in July 2023. This easing of inflation has allowed interest rates to enter positive territory with a notable margin. In response to these developments, the Monetary Policy Committee of the State Bank of Pakistan recently decided to reduce the policy rate by 100 basis points, lowering it to 19.5 percent.

The improvements in inflation and interest rates have come at a crucial time. However, significant challenges remain, notably the fiscal deficit, which continues to exert pressure on overall economic stability. Despite the achievement of a primary surplus, the fiscal deficit has surged to Rs 7.2 trillion (6.8 percent of GDP). This indicates that the government remains heavily reliant on borrowing to meet its financial obligations. The large fiscal deficit underscores the need for comprehensive, prudent fiscal management and effective strategies to ensure long-term economic sustainability.

Successive governments have struggled to manage the fiscal deficit effectively. No comprehensive action plan has emerged to tackle this issue. Despite various announcements of austerity measures, such as closing redundant ministries and reducing development expenditures, there has been no tangible improvement.

With the 18th Constitutional Amendment in place, it is increasingly important to have a unified national approach. Federal and provincial governments need to collaborate to enhance their revenue streams and eliminate inefficiencies. The recent federal budget continued to focus on increasing the tax burden on existing taxpayers and sectors already in the tax net. For the 24th EFF, the IMF’s press release identified a “key goal” as under:

“A fairer balance of fiscal effort between the federal and provincial governments, which have agreed to rebalance spending activities in line with the 18^th Constitutional Amendment through the signature of a National Fiscal Pact that devolves to provincial governments higher spending for education, health, social protection and regional public infrastructure investment, enabling improved public service provision. At the same time, the provinces will take steps to increase their own tax-collection efforts, including in sales tax on services and agricultural income tax. On the latter, all provinces are committed to fully harmonising their Agriculture Income Tax regimes through legislative changes with the federal personal and corporate income tax regimes. This will become effective from January 1, 2025.”

It is unfortunate that this measure is perceived as an “imposed requirement” rather than a government initiative. This reflects poorly on the national commitment and ability to address the fiscal deficit effectively. In the midst of severe economic challenges, where aggressive measures are severely affecting the lives of ordinary citizens, the focus by politicians, the establishment and the judiciary seems misaligned.

Such approached ignore the reality that no leader, regardless of their background, can resolve these challenges without the support of all political forces and the public. The policymakers have failed to recognise that the excessive burden placed on taxpayers is bound to hamper economic growth. This situation underlines a critical disconnect between governmental actions and the pressing needs of the nation. It is, thus, imperative that all political forces collaborate and acknowledge that unity and cooperation are essential for strengthening democracy and transforming the governance and judicial system. Only through such concerted efforts can Pakistan set itself on a path to sustainable economic growth and stability.

Dr Ikramul Haq, writer and an advocate of the Supreme Court is an adjunct teacher at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Abdul Rauf Shakoori is a corporate lawyer based in the USA.