n the age of social media, organised youth are a power to reckon with. The recent events in Bangladesh have highlighted this fact, overlooked by authoritarian leaders, including some in the Global South. Millions of protesters had defied curfew restrictions for several days and taken to the streets. In the end, their persistence despite deaths by violence ended Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s uninterrupted 15-year rule. A military-backed interim government has since been installed with the tacit approval of the student/ youth leaders who have called for representative democracy.

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the former managing director of Grameen Bank, will head the interim administration, tasked with holding free and fair elections. Yunus was one of the notable dissenters incarcerated by the Hasina regime.

The social upheaval against Prime Minister Hasina had started as a student protest against a controversial job quotas system. It quickly morphed into a widespread movement. The government, which had recently secured a fourth term through a disputed electoral process, had effectively established a one-party rule and marginalized the opposition. Bangladesh has had all kinds of governments in the past. It had one-party rule under Sheikh Mujib-ur Rahman; military dictatorships under Zia-ur Rahman and Hussain Muhammad Ershad; illiberal democracy in the 1990s; technocratic governments; and one-party rule under Sheikh Hasina since 2009. After assuming office for the second time (her first tenure was from 1996 to 2001), in 2011, Hasina repealed the constitutional provisions for an interim government, empowering the Election Commission to hold elections instead. Her government was accused of manipulating the judiciary, civil bureaucracy and the Election Commission in lead-up to the 2014 general elections. Protests by the opposition, led by the Bangladesh National Party, were futile.

During her second consecutive term, Sheikh Hasina became more authoritarian. Political opponents like former prime minister Khaleda Zia were imprisoned and media and pro-democracy organisations faced many curbs. The government was seen as a virtual one-party rule in a nominally parliamentary democracy. The regime implemented a neoliberal growth model focusing on private investments, export facilitation and infrastructure development, leading to high GDP growth that also widened socioeconomic inequality. The elite grew richer but the masses suffered from poverty, chronic diseases and the fallout of climate catastrophes.

Nonetheless, the Awami League solidified the one-party model of autocratic rule and Hasina was said to have won the 2018 elections even before they were held. She had subdued the press and controlled the police and the courts. She also built a personality cult around her father and suppressed the political opposition.

Her father was killed, along with several family members, by elements from within the Bangladeshi military in August 1975. Being away in Europe, Hasina and her sister, Rehana, escaped their fate. Later, she lived in India before staging a political comeback. 

The BNP-led opposition announced a boycott of the general election held in January 2024. From the US to the European Union, rights organisations and election monitoring platforms criticised the government for cornering the opposition leaders, media organisations and the civil society. With Hasina’s control over the government and non-elected state institutions, her party secured another five-year term.

The Awami League government enjoyed longevity at the expense of democracy, media freedom, human rights and a progressive future. However, the recent students’ protests overcame the fear of oppressive state apparatus. Political repression, human rights violations, the increasing cost of living and growing youth unemployment, added to the discontent against the pro-elite policies of the regime. The administration’s use of force to suppress the demonstrations only fuelled the anger. The killing of hundreds of protesters by security forces turned the streets into battle zones. These protests debunked the myth of the government’s invincibility. The political opposition and a section of the civil society also joined hands with the protesting students.

In the end, the protesting youth forced the most powerful politician in the country to leave. The military cannot be accused of having conspired against the Hasina government. In fact, the current army chief is married into the Sheikh family. However, he could not protect the government against the unintended consequences of its policies and its discriminatory outlook.

His personal relationship with the family may have helped him persuade Hasina to resign and leave the country to avoid a fate similar to his father’s. Sheikh Mujij and several family members were killed by elements from the Bangladeshi military in August 1975. Being away in Europe, Hasina and her sister, Rehana, had escaped death then. Later, she had lived in India before staging a political comeback.

Hasina is likely to attempt another comeback. She might bide her time in India where she has close ties with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In New Delhi, her ouster might be seen as a foreign policy setback.

With Hasina out of the way, the opposition parties, particularly the BNP and the Jaamat-i-Islami may fancy their chances. The two parties apparently had considerable contributions to the street protests and marches. It is important that the student leaders have not sought to scrap the current political system. The youth leaders, appearing on TV, appear to be content with replacing the Hasina regime with anti-Hasina, or rather anti-Awami League, politicians, parties and media and corporate leaders.

Given the widespread youth resentment and a volatile sociopolitical context, there is apparently no room for the military to directly intervene in politics. It seems probable that the country will head for another general election.

The writer has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and a post-doc from UC Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com