here did the Pakistan Peoples Party stand in the post February 8 general elections scenario? The results of the elections surprised many, including those who truly matter. Following March, 2022, and the vote of no confidence, Pakistani politics has revolved around one person – Imran Khan, arguably the most popular politician since Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

Against all odds, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf – technically out of the race after it was not allowed to use bat as its election symbol, and had to field its candidates as independents – emerged as the single largest political group. Imran himself was disqualified and later convicted. He is now facing several cases. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s government is trying to convince its allies, mainly the PPP and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan, that the PTI should be banned and Khan and former president Arif Alvi prosecuted under Article 6. However, so far, the PPP and the MQM-P are not convinced of the PML-N reasoning.

The election results led to two major decisions by the PML-N and the PPP. The three-time prime minister and party president Nawaz Sharif decided to not run for the premiership. Instead, he nominated his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif for the office. Meanwhile, his daughter Maryam Nawaz became the Punjab chief minister. The PPP decided to support the PML-N in the formation of the federal government but did not join the cabinet. The decision further burdened Shahbaz Sharif, whose earlier tenure of 16 months did not go well for the party, as the polls showed.

Was that the reason PPP president Asif Ali Zardari decided to maintain some distance and support or oppose the government on a ‘case to case’ basis? The PPP knew that the economic situation would not permit the government to provide any relief to the people. They did not want any part of that burden. It may have been a smart move. The PPP looked elsewhere and reached an agreement on sharing key positions with the PML-N.

The PPP got constitutional offices, including that of the president, Senate chairman and governorships in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Nawaz Sharif read the writing on the wall and decided to not head a weak coalition government. Now he faces the uphill task of finding his way through the political impasse.

The PPP has since had an interesting role. It continued to support the PML-N in the formation of the government and matters like passing the budget and on some economic and political decisions. However, it distanced itself when it came to imposing a ban on the PTI. If at any stage the move is backed by powerful quarters, the PPP may reluctantly support the ban. So far, a decision has been withheld.

The PTI perhaps missed an opportunity. Had they engaged the PPP in negotiations, the PTI could have put the PML-N as well as certain other quarters in a difficult position. The PML-N is in no position to form a government on its own. However, the PTI held that the elections were “hijacked” and demanded the ‘return’ of its mandate. The PTI thus put itself out of the race, leaving the arena to the PML-N and the PPP.

An agreement was reached under which the PML-N formed the government at the Centre and in the Punjab with the support of the PPP. It supported the latter in Balochistan. The PPP already had two thirds of the PA seats in Sindh; it agreed to give the governor’s slot to the PML-N.

The PML-N supported the PPP in the elections for president and Balochistan’s chief minister. The PPP in return allowed the PML-N to nominate the Balochistan governor. In the Punjab, once a PML-N stronghold, the chief minister’s office went to the PML-N; the governorship to the PPP. The most interesting arrangement was made in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the PTI had won a third consecutive term. The governor’s office went to the PPP.

For all practical purposes, the PPP is part of the coalition government though not part of the cabinet. Recently, the two almost agreed on a formula so that the PPP could join the government.

Can the PPP leadership come up with an alternative vision for the Punjab? A revival remains a remote possibility unless the party chairman, Bilawal Bhutto, offers something new to attract the voters. At present, the Punjab is clearly divided between pro- and anti-Imran opinions.

Historically, except during the 1972-1977 government, the PPP was never able to form a government on its own in the Punjab. This has not been the PPP’s fault alone. There was an establishment policy to keep the party out of the Punjab. It started during Gen Zia-ul Haq’s martial law. After Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was hanged, Zia thought it would end the party. However, the execution revived the party and its popularity reached new heights. The then governor Ghulam Jillani Khan was then given the task of designing a policy to counter the PPP. He brought the Sharifs into politics. Hameed Gul took over when Jillani left. The latter facilitated the forming of the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad. The move ensured that the PPP didn’t get enough seats to form a government in the Punjab.

This was the beginning of the PPP-PML-N rivalry that resulted in sharp differences between Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. Almost a decade later, in 2006, both of them acknowledged that they had been ‘used’ against each other and the Charter of Democracy was forged to strengthen democracy.

In the post-2018 scenario, the rise of Imran Khan and the PTI brought both the PPP and the PML-N close. It now appears that Imran Khan is the sole point of contention for each party. He has once again brought the Sharifs and Zardari close. But it looks like they still cannot entirely trust each other. This could be another reason why the PPP did not join the PML-N led government.

From resistance and defiance that led to the execution of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto to forging a path of reconciliation and, at times, compromise, the PPP has done it all. Its revival in the Punjab depends on the fate of the PTI founder, Imran Khan.

The PTI remains in the lead currently with both the PML-N and the PPP trailing behind in popular support. Whether or not the political scenario will change over the next six months to a year is an open question.

The writer is a columnist and analyst for GEO, The News and Jang. His X handle: @MazharAbbasGEO