n Tuesday, May 9, 2023, former prime minister of Pakistan Imran Khan was picked up by Rangers from the premises of a court in Islamabad where he and his wife were facing corruption charges in Al-Qadir Trust case. The arrest was followed by violent protests from Karachi in the south to Chakdara in the north. Public properties were vandalised and set ablaze, the protesters clashed with law enforcement and thousands were arrested. Public anger was primarily aimed at military installations and monuments, including the Jinnah House, the residence of the corps commander of Lahore garrison, and Qila Bala Hissar, the headquarters of Pakistan Army’s Frontier Corps.

The political story since then can be summarised as a tussle between the incarcerated leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf and the establishment. Most political analysts describe the general elections held on February 8 and the governments formed since then as a “sideshow.” Many Imran Khan watchers say that his arrest and continued incarceration have proved a turnaround in political fortunes and given him a phoenix-like rebirth. Some would rather quote the Latin phrase, per aspera ad astra (to the stars through hardships).

In the process his party – the PTI – has fractured and frayed. Many of the so-called ‘electables’ in the Punjab have either joined other parties or opted for temporary political oblivion. Some of his Khyber Pakhtunkhwa stallions have been replaced by mutant mules. The PTI was never a really potent force in Sindh or Balochistan, as Imran Khan’s uber popularity among the youth has yet to reach the southern provinces.

Khan’s current political stance reminds one of a saying by an early 20^th Century vaudeville American actor and social commentator, Will Rogers. He said, “I am not a member of an organised political party. I am a Democrat.” Many would dispute Imran Khan’s claim to being a democrat but he is definitely closer to looking like one. Sitting in his Adiala prison cell, he has ample time to think and strategise. He realises that his current team lacks political experience and parliamentary exuberance. Unlike the 2018 rent-a-crowd, these are his remains-of-the-day comrades. Many of them are competent lawyers. Cognisant of the fact that the parliament is currently a political wilderness, he has taken his battles to the courtrooms and social media. He knows that the top judge today was deliberately maligned but he is also aware that some of the Supreme Court judges have longed for constitutional and civilian supremacy. Why not take a chance on fielding the judges against the establishment? He knows he can expect favours from television anchors who have had a history of anti-establishment campaigns and love quoting from the pages that are critical of the past dictators and their doings. Don’t forget the army of youthful social media practitioners who have scant hopes from an emaciated economy. Pro-Imran narratives can lead to future prosperity through vlogs and reels.

Some of the recent cases have given the lie to the observation that while judges’ courtroom observations might please the public, their judgments propitiate the well-entrenched establishment. Some of the recent judgments by the Supreme Court and the Islamabad High Court have created a semblance of judicial independence. Every time Imran Khan is granted bail in some case his fans get excited, believing momentarily that his release is possible, even close at hand. Institution of new cases against him on the one hand speaks of limp investigation and incompetent prosecution and on the other gives credence to claims that he is in a prison because the most powerful man in the country wants it.

The results of the February elections shocked many and confounded others. Imran Khan, himself, may be one of the puzzled lot. Some of those confident of their ability to manipulate the system were bamboozled too. They can claim otherwise now but there has been evidence that they failed to read the street. The effort to cool the heat generated on May 9 is still a work in progress. A majority of the people, including soldiers and their families, were impacted.

While Imran is using his cultish charm to maximum effect from behind the bars, other political forces have to seriously think about their future. The Islamabad grapevine is abuzz about a meeting in Murree and discussions about possible combinations that could put the country back on rails. An increased number of recently retired officials, including some military officers, have been suggesting that the political setup desperately needs a change of face. “The hybrid regime and their begging schemes cannot deliver the goods. This will only help the incarcerated man’s vitriol,” says a retired federal secretary.

With a near snub from a visiting Chinese minister a few weeks ago regarding internal stability and the faltering security and a demand by the US Congress to investigate the last elections, political space for the powers that be is shrinking fast. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan continue to bleed. The power quarters need to realise that politics is not a physical wrestling bout where outcomes mostly depend on muscles. It is a competition of cognitive and cerebral capabilities wherein opponents try to outwit each other on a chessboard of tactical gamesmanship.

Postulating their remarks on democratic traditions and civilian supremacy, men in uniform often employ statements like that of Charles de Gaulle’s: “politics is too serious a matter to be left to politicians,” or Joseph Stalin’s opinion that “it is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.” Such ideas might have been relevant in the European context. However, given the direction in which Pakistani politics is heading, British leader Winston Churchill sounds more apt when he said, “It is always dangerous for soldiers, sailors and airmen to play at politics. They enter a sphere in which the values are quite different from those to which they are hitherto accustomed.”

For now, Imran Khan is not ready to talk to the Sharifs or Bhutto-Zardaris. His conditions for a dialogue prima facie reek of absolute political superiority. He seems to believe that being seen talking to the PML-N and the PPP will dent his popularity amongst his followers. But he also knows that politics is the art of the possible and that he is gaining ground by the day. That is why he is still sending out signals for a dialogue with the establishment. His opponents continue to claim that there is no appetite for such a dialogue on the other side. What if things change in the next six to nine months? Don’t all political forces in the country see the establishment as their constant adversary? Can the major political forces shout out a check call sooner rather than later?

The writer is the resident editor of The News, Islamabad