limate Risk Management in Azad Jammu and Kashmir is a 28-page comprehensive report by Dr Shahed Akhtar, published by the Centre for Peace, Development and Reforms (CPDR), containing a detailed analysis of the climate crisis management of the AJK region. This is a pioneering study on the subject, discussing how climate change has brought disasters to the area with increased pressures on the environment and natural resources. The report also mentions how women and other vulnerable groups are exposed to the effects of climate change disproportionately. It also discusses how climate change in AJK poses a significant threat to the environment and social and political stability. Additionally, the report offers a set of 10 solid recommendations for a climate-resilient AJK.

Azad Jammu and Kashmir’s dependence on agriculture and natural resources makes it highly vulnerable to climate change. The geographic location, geo-ecological landscape, rising temperatures, melting of glaciers, deforestation, urbanisation, erratic rainfall patterns, and population growth all exacerbate climate stresses in the region. This has led to an increased frequency and intensity of weather events, including flash floods, landslides, avalanches, and drought.

The report highlights that the absence of adequate flood forecasting and early warning systems aggravates the situation. There is a weak early warning system, alert warning issuance, and communication system for the vulnerable communities in the region to warn about flash flooding and landslides. AJK relies on alerts and warnings issued by the Pakistan Meteorological Department. However, these warnings are often generalised and suffer from low accuracy due to PMD’s weather radars not having full coverage of AJK. This lack of a robust early warning system leaves communities vulnerable and unprepared for sudden disasters like flash floods and landslides.

Climate change is significantly impacting AJK’s flood patterns. The region experiences both seasonal and sudden flooding events. During the summer monsoon, the Jhelum and Neelum Rivers frequently overflow due to extreme rainfall and melting of snow. Steep slopes further exacerbate the dangers of flash floods triggered by heavy rains. These floods have caused immense economic and human losses. Devastating floods occurred in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2020. Land encroachment along riverbanks and drainage channels in urban and semi-urban areas further worsen the situation.

The report mentions a particularly concerning trend, which is the increase in cloudburst-induced floods, especially in the Neelum Valley. These resulted in significant damage, as seen in the August 2022 event that trapped hundreds of tourists and destroyed five houses, vehicles, and three mini hydel power stations. Similar destruction occurred in a July 2021 cloudburst in the Neelum Valley’s Salkhala area.

Rising population, urbanisation, industrialisation, deforestation, and land degradation are among the major factors causing pressure on the environment and natural resources. Muzaffarabad’s population is expected to reach 0.73 million by 2025. This unplanned growth places severe environmental pressure on the region’s resources.

According to the report, AJK has witnessed significant deforestation between 2001 and 2021, losing 400 hectares of tree cover. This deforestation, driven by development projects, illegal logging for profit and fuel, and the booming tourist industry in Neelum Valley, has resulted in severe environmental consequences.

The loss of forests has contributed to the disappearance of over 60 natural lakes in Rata Valley alone, increased barren land, and a rise in landslides, flash floods, and avalanches. This ruthless deforestation not only threatens the delicate ecosystems of AJK but also disrupts natural water flow patterns and harms valuable trees like Conifers, Deodar and Pines. The report emphasises that the region’s water, food, and energy security could be seriously jeopardised as a result of these climate-related vulnerabilities.

The report further stresses that erratic rainfall patterns and temperature fluctuations disproportionately impact women involved in agriculture and livestock, increasing their vulnerability to disasters. Existing policies, while acknowledging women’s concerns, do not address the root causes of gender disparity. Disaster preparedness and recovery efforts also neglect a gendered approach. Importantly, AJK hasn’t adopted Pakistan’s Climate Change Gender Action Plan, which offers a framework for empowering women through knowledge sharing, promoting leadership roles, and ensuring gender-responsive climate action. This highlights the critical need for a more transformative approach that tackles both climate challenges and underlying gender inequalities in AJK.

The report highlights significant challenges faced by the State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA), such as knowledge gap in disaster risk reduction and a lack of focus on organisational performance and adaptability. The SDMA’s coping capacity is hindered by insufficient coordination among departments and a reactive rather than proactive approach. To address these issues, AJK must mainstream climate change in its planning processes, enhance institutional capacities, and improve early warning mechanisms.

Conducting multi-hazard vulnerability assessments and integrating a gendered approach into climate policy are essential in ensuring comprehensive and effective climate resilience.

The need for such reports cannot be overstated. Comprehensive studies such as this provide invaluable insights and actionable strategies that can guide policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders to combat climate change. By fostering a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities within climate risk management, such reports contribute significantly to building a resilient and sustainable future for regions like AJK.

The writer is a freelance contributor based in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Her X handle: @hunain_mahmood. She can be reached at hunainmehmud101 @gmail.com